Is Bitcoin’s 4.37% rally on the 14th of July the first real sign of a bottom forming?
From the macro standpoint, BTC’s rally followed a cooler-than-expected CPI report, marking a key recalibration point for investors. Few signals highlight this shift better.
According to FedWatch data, the market is now pricing just a 16.6% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, down sharply from 41.7% the day before the report.
At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is now just six points away from entering the “Neutral” zone, a level it hasn’t reached since mid-May. Together, these signals point to improving risk appetite, giving Bitcoin a strong macro backdrop as it tests higher resistance levels.
Supporting this view, Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, shared his month-end outlook for Bitcoin with AMBCrypto:
This may be the push we need to finally break the $64k level and push towards $66k as Bitcoin within the last 3 years on average has returned +2.8% after a cooler than expected CPI print as it is a barometer of risk. A break of about $66k will set us up to retest $70k and possibly even $75k by month’s end – a level we haven’t seen since late May.
In essence, the CPI report has clearly shifted market expectations.
Against this backdrop, Glassnode’s latest data on Bitcoin’s long positioning starts to make more sense.
The report shows long positions have climbed back to levels last seen when BTC traded around $83k, suggesting traders are aggressively rebuilding leverage long exposure as bullish sentiment returns.
However, the bigger question is whether the improving macro backdrop and the rise in the Fear and Greed Index are enough to confirm a Bitcoin [BTC] bottom.
If not, this spike in long positioning could simply be another wave of overleveraged bets, increasing the risk of a bull trap. Notably, this is where the growing alignment between Bitcoin’s technicals and on-chain fundamentals begins to matter.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals hint at a stronger recovery
Interestingly, the market is already pricing in a $100k quarter-end target for Bitcoin.
The key takeaway? The target isn’t based on sentiment alone. Mena believes that improving on-chain fundamentals are starting to support Bitcoin’s recovery, suggesting the current setup goes beyond a CPI-driven rally.
He told AMBCrypto:
With Spot Bitcoin ETFs turning positive with $400m in net flows in the last week alone, and potential progress on the CLARITY Act, fundamentals and technicals are starting to align for a $100k push by quarter-end, setting up a potential retest of the $126k all-time high by year-end or early 2027.
Notably, the on-chain data already backs this view. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the number of wallets holding at least 1 BTC has grown by nearly 0.4% since June, with more than 4,000 new holders joining the network.
At the same time, Wrapped Bitcoin [WBTC] has seen a sharp rise in exchange outflows.
As the chart shows, around 326 WBTC left exchanges in a single day, marking the largest net outflow since June. Since WBTC is a key source of Bitcoin liquidity, these outflows suggest more investors are moving their holdings into DeFi protocols, reinforcing the growing fundamental strength behind Bitcoin’s rally.
Taken together, the $100k BTC target no longer looks far-fetched. The macro backdrop has improved, technicals are building, and fundamentals continue to strengthen.
If this trend holds, Bitcoin could break above $66k in the near term, opening the door for a move toward the $70k-$75k range by month-end.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s macro outlook is improving, with a softer CPI report and rising risk appetite boosting bullish sentiment.
- On-chain data remains strong, supporting the case for a break above $66k and a move toward $70k-$75k.
