According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin is heading for its best August performance since 2017, having risen over 25%. This entire gain has occurred in the last 10 days: the price of $BTC rose from $62,000 on August 17th to a high of $81,000 on August 25th, and is now trading around $78,500. During this rally, on August 19th, the price crossed the Short-Term Holder Realized Price level of $67,125 and has remained above it since. Data from Look Into Bitcoin shows this is the first convincing return to this level since April of last year.
This is an on-chain metric that essentially tracks the average cost basis of each coin whose price last changed within the past 155 days. Think of it as the average price paid by recent buyers. When Bitcoin trades below this line, these buyers are at a loss and tend to sell on any bounce, trying to break even. This is one of the mechanical reasons why bounces during a bear market often fail. Conversely, crossing above this line means these new buyers are now sitting on unrealized profit, and the line becomes a support zone rather than a ceiling or resistance.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is roughly 17% above the short-term holder cost basis. In May of this year, $BTC briefly approached this level but was rejected, and this is the first time in over a year that a decent cushion has formed before anyone can call for its invalidation.
After Ten Months of Trading, Recent Buyers Are Finally in the Green
The last convincing recovery of the STH cost basis occurred in April 2025, a couple of weeks after Bitcoin reached a low around $75,000 during the tariff-induced sell-off. The Bitcoin price remained above this level throughout the summer and decisively broke below it after the liquidation cascade on October 10th, with all attempts to reclaim it failing until last week. That's ten months during which recent buyers held coins at a price below what they paid, and ten months where this supply met demand on every rally attempt. The most recent attempt in May is a prime example.
Historically, recoveries of this level have centered around turning points, not in the middle of a trend. On the Look Into Bitcoin chart, they are marked during the 2019 recovery, the March 2020 crash, the middle of 2021, the late 2022 lows, and again pre-2024. Nevertheless, marking previous recoveries in hindsight is easier than trading the current one, and the sample size for a full cycle is small.
The key takeaway is behavioral. A cohort of investors who were selling into rallies four weeks ago are now holding paper profits, and this changes the game on the next day when the price drops 5%.
50-Week Moving Average at $81,000 Acts as Rejection Point
This week, Bitcoin reached $81,265. The 50-week moving average is at $81,063. The price touched this level and closed roughly $2,300 below it.
This average has a long history on the weekly chart. It supported the price rise throughout the 2024 and 2025 bull run, repeatedly overcoming corrections. After $BTC lost it in November 2025, the dynamic flipped. The price was rejected by it in 2018 and repeated the same in 2022. Both those periods represented multi-quarter downtrends.
The slope of the line is the other half of the problem. The line has been declining since the breakdown in November and continues to decline now. Deviation from a declining long-term average is standard bear market behavior. A trend change only occurs after the slope of the line flattens out.
What Actually Changes the Big Picture?
Two different timeframes tell two different stories, and both can be true. The short-term trend has changed: recent buyers are back above the $67,000 level, which should now provide support on the way down.
The long-term trend has not changed yet. For that to happen, a weekly close above $81,063 is needed, after which the average will start moving sideways rather than continuing its decline. Until that happens, this week's high is a rejection at a known resistance line, and the only structural change on the scoreboard is the return to the $67,000 level.
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