Author: Trend Research
U.S. markets were closed last Friday for the Independence Day holiday, yet Nasdaq 100 futures bucked the trend, rising over 1% as concerns in the AI sector noticeably eased. The Russia-Ukraine weekend call did not lead to de-escalation; instead, both sides intensified attacks. However, Middle East risk premiums receded early, with gold rebounding throughout the week, ending a four-week losing streak. This week, the Fed meeting minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq index are converging on the market. Whether the pent-up bullish sentiment from the holiday closure can materialize depends on whether liquidity can withstand the pressure.
Market Performance
In early Asian trading on Monday, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.2%, extending the rebound seen in Friday's futures session. Spot gold rebounded 2.16% on the week to $4,176.94/oz, and spot silver rose 5.52% to $62.4158/oz, their strength reflecting continued capital flows seeking safe havens during the U.S. market holiday. Brent crude still fell 0.66% on the week to $72.12/barrel, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline and the longest losing streak in nearly two years, primarily due to fading Middle East risk premiums. Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,600, up 0.8% in 24 hours, with a seven-day gain of 7.9%; Ethereum is at $1,784.58, up 15.1% over seven days, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. The strength in high-volatility assets is often seen as a leading signal for risk appetite.
Macro & Outlook
On Tuesday, SpaceX will be inserted into the Nasdaq 100 index, setting a record for the speed from IPO to index inclusion, forcing passive funds tracking the index to buy. On the same day, the U.S. Trade Representative's office holds hearings on proposed tariffs against 60 economies, putting trade friction risks back on the table. The Sun Valley Annual Conference also kicks off, with heads of Apple, Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI attending. However, this year's seating chart lacks Jensen Huang and Elon Musk; who is absent is often more telling than who is present. OpenAI scheduled the release of GPT-5.6 to coincide with the expiration of Claude Fable 5's quota plan—such scheduling is hardly a coincidence. The AI model arms race has escalated to the release schedule itself, potentially recalibrating the pricing logic for chip and computing power-related stocks.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve releases the first meeting minutes chaired by Wash since taking office. The June dot plot already showed half the members leaning toward a rate hike this year. The market wants to see if stronger language in the minutes confirms this. Two voting members will also speak publicly during the week, but this round of speeches is scheduled much sparser than usual. Similar unusual quiet periods have occurred before and after major policy shifts in the past.
Around Friday, SK Hynix's U.S.-listed ADRs are expected to debut, with an offering size exceeding 45 trillion won. This scale is reminiscent of Alibaba's record-setting U.S. IPO, which could stir sentiment in semiconductor and memory chain stocks. This week, Fast Retailing, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines will report earnings, officially kicking off the U.S. Q2 earnings season. Starting July 9th, overseas giants' earnings forecasts will enter a peak period.
Trend Perspective
The bullish logic is straightforward: futures rebounded in advance during the market holiday, and gold and cryptocurrencies moved higher in tandem, indicating risk appetite wasn't disrupted by geopolitical and tariff noise. The bearish concerns are equally clear: the convergence of the Fed minutes, tariff hearings, and SpaceX's Nasdaq inclusion in the same week means any hiccup in any of these events could dash the optimistic sentiment built up during the holiday closure. The real watershed lies in the wording of the Fed minutes. If the minutes chaired by Wash are not more hawkish than market expectations, the futures rebound is likely to extend after Monday's open. If the minutes confirm the rate hike bias, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely be the first to signal a pullback.
