Bitcoin Short-Term Bullish Structure Validated, HYPE Accumulation Window Opens | Guest Analysis

This week's market environment is exceptionally complex—the unexpected finalization of the US-Iran agreement and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered intense global asset repricing. Such times of extreme emotional volatility are precisely when structural analysis is most valuable. The greater the noise, the more important the framework.

This week, we focus on two main themes: the outcome of BTC's pullback and confirmation after breaking above $65,000, which will determine its subsequent direction; and whether HYPE, after completing a four-stage correction, will offer new short-term opportunities as it faces the resistance zone of $62.5~$64.57.

Detailed analysis of the complete price structure, market predictions, and trading strategies can be found in the main text.

Summary of This Week's Core Trading Views:

• BTC Hourly Timeframe Structure Analysis. (Detailed in Part One)

• BTC Market Outlook and Medium/Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week. (Detailed in Part Two)

• HYPE Hourly Timeframe Structure Analysis. (Detailed in Part Three)

• HYPE Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week. (Detailed in Part Four)

Last Week's Trading Strategy & Core Views Market Verification:

• HYPE Short-Term Trade Performance: Successfully executed one short-term long position (1x leverage) last week, achieving a profit of approximately 11.88%. (Detailed in Table One)

• BTC Market Prediction Verification: Last week's article noted that after an instantaneous dip below the $60,000 threshold, the price would find support and stage a short-term rebound to confirm the validity of the break below the key level. Current market movements have validated our previous prediction.

• HYPE Market Prediction Verification: Last week's article noted that when HYPE price retested the key support zone of $55-57, showing signs of stopping its decline and stabilizing, and combined with bottom signals triggered by two major models, a light long position could be considered. Current market movements are highly consistent with our predicted view.

One: In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Timeframe Structure

Bitcoin _ 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Figure One

1. As shown in (Figure One), since the high of $82,850 on May 6th, the correction in the 4-hour chart can be subdivided into a 12-stage adjustment structure. This includes two descending pivots: Pivot D and Pivot E. The overall structure is clear, presenting a typical complex correction pattern.

2. From the 4-hour structural perspective, the market is currently in the 38-39 segment rebound. The price has now broken above $65,000. If the subsequent breakout is confirmed as valid, the next key resistance for the rebound will be in the $69,500~$70,500 zone.

Two: Bitcoin's Market Outlook and Trading Strategies for This Week

1. BTC Market Outlook for This Week:

Core View This Week: Focus on the result of the price's pullback confirmation after breaking above $65,000.

• If the pullback fails to hold this level, the market may retest the core support range of $60,000~$62,000.

• If it effectively stabilizes above, it will challenge the core resistance zone of $69,500~$70,500. This area will be a key region for us to plan medium-term short positions.

2. Core Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $69,500~$70,500 area (previous high-volume consolidation zone)

• Second Resistance Zone: $72,500~$74,500 area (previous high-volume consolidation zone)

3. Core Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $65,000

• Second Support Level: $59,000~$60,000 area (previous key support level)

• Third Support Level: Around $55,000 (previous key support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding Impact of Sudden News)

1. Medium-Term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure Two

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure Two), the price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," indicating the technical structure has shifted to a bear-dominated pattern. The market did not meet our planned (short) entry conditions last week, so the medium-term position remains empty for now.

This week, based on the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears around $65,000, medium-term short positions can be built gradually according to the following three-level strategy:

• Add at Strong Resistance: If the price successfully stabilizes in the $65,000 area and subsequently rallies to the $69,500~$70,500 zone, showing clear signs of resistance, consider initiating a medium-term (short) position, with total exposure controlled below 60%.

• Short on Support Break: If the price loses the $65,000 support and shows signs of a valid breakdown, preliminarily establish a 30% medium-term short position.

• Short on Further Breakdown: If the price loses the $65,000 support and effectively breaks below the $59,000~$60,000 support zone, add to the short position accordingly, with total exposure controlled below 60%.

2. Short-Term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-losses, and seek "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute/60-minute as the operational timeframe).

3. For dynamic response to complex market changes in short-term operations, we have prepared two specific operational plans in advance: Plan A/B.

• Plan A: Enter at Strong Resistance.

• Entry: If the price successfully stabilizes in the $65,000 area and subsequently rallies near $69,500~$70,500 showing signs of stalling, combined with quantitative model top signals, consider entering a short position with exposure below 30%.

• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: Gradually close the position for profit when the price adjusts near key support levels, combined with model signals.

• Plan B: Short on Valid Support Break.

• Entry: If the price loses the $65,000 support and shows signs of a valid breakdown, consider entering a short position with exposure below 30%.

• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: Gradually close the position for profit when the price declines to key support levels, combined with model signals.

Three: HYPE Hourly Timeframe Structure Analysis

HYPE_ 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

Figure Three

1. As shown in (Figure Three), in the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE's correction since the high of $75.87 on June 2nd can be subdivided into a four-stage adjustment structure: (47-48), (48-49), (49-50), (50-51).

2. Currently, HYPE price has stabilized and rebounded from the support area around $52 and is in the rebound process of segment (50-51). Its overhead resistance lies in the $62.5 to $64.57 zone. If (Endpoint 51) forms a high in this area (it is highly probable the overall structure will form a "descending pivot" here), the price will likely continue downward to seek stronger support.

Four: HYPE Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategies for This Week

1. HYPE Market Outlook for This Week:

1. Core Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $62.5-64.57 area;

• Second Resistance Level: $68-70 area;

2. Core Support Levels:

• First Support Level: $52-55.5 area;

• Second Support Level: $47-49 area;

Core View on HYPE This Week:

• Observe the resistance effect in the $62.5-64.57 area and the price level at which "Endpoint 51" forms a high.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week: (Long on Support)

This week's HYPE short-term trading should adhere to the strategy of "accumulate on dips, avoid chasing rallies."

Short-Term Strategy: Test Long on Support Zone Stabilization

When HYPE price retests the key support areas of $52-54.5 or the deeper $47-49, showing signs of stopping its decline and stabilizing, and combined with bottom signals triggered by the two major models, consider testing a light long position. Exposure must be controlled below 30%, with strict stop-loss discipline.

Five: HYPE Trade Review

1. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Table One)

We strictly followed the operational plan. Based on trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quant Model," we executed one short-term (long) trade last week, achieving a profit of 11.88%.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage*1x)

3. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure Four)

1. Entry Strategy:

• A relatively complete downtrend correction structure had already occurred;

• Our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" had issued strong bottom warning signals in advance (red and white dots in the chart);

• Our proprietary "Momentum Quant Model" had issued a momentum bottom divergence signal;

Based on the above three points, we entered a 30% long position around $54.39.

2. Exit Strategy:

• The price encountered resistance when approaching $62.5;

• Our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" had issued top warning signals in advance (white dots in the chart);

• Our proprietary "Momentum Quant Model" had issued a momentum top divergence signal;

Therefore, we closed the entire position around $60.85.

3. Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 11.88%.

HYPE_ 30-Minute Candlestick Chart: (Momentum Quant Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure Four (Short-Term Trade Illustration)

Six: Special Notes:

1. When entering a position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned herein are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely for personal trading log purposes, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks; investment requires caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.