Although the price of Bitcoin has recovered from its low around $58,000 recorded in late June and stabilized around $65,000, blockchain analysis platform Glassnode stated that current market prospects still point to a "transitional recovery."
According to Glassnode's analysis, although Bitcoin recently stabilized around $65,000, price movements remain stable below the $66,000 mark. While market momentum seems to be approaching neutral levels again, and spot market buying has accelerated significantly, the overall trading volume on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges remains relatively low.
Analysts stated that this divergence indicates a gradual strengthening of demand under current consolidation conditions, rather than a widespread increase in speculative activity.
Bitcoin Futures Market Activity Increases
According to Glassnode data, a similarly balanced yet improving picture is observed in the derivatives markets.
Buyer activity in the perpetual futures markets has exceeded the upper statistical ranges, indicating that investors have become more aggressive in taking directional positions.
However, the fact that open interest and funding rates remain at moderate levels suggests that, although the use of leverage in the market has increased, it has not yet reached an uncontrollable level.
In the options market, the skew indicator has narrowed. According to Glassnode, this indicates that the premium investors are willing to pay to protect against price declines has decreased, and short-term defensive positions have weakened.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Remains High
One of the most positive metrics noted by Glassnode was demand from institutional investors.
Reportedly, the net inflow of funds into regulated Bitcoin-based investment products has reached levels high enough to exceed upper statistical thresholds. This occurred despite a slight slowdown in the trading volumes of these products on secondary markets.
Blockchain data also showed an increase in the share of capital within the total supply defined as "hot capital," which is more susceptible to short-term movements.
Concurrently, an increase in the ratio of Bitcoin held by short-term investors to Bitcoin held by long-term investors was noted. Glassnode stated that this trend indicates that price-sensitive capital is gradually beginning to re-enter the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin Network Activity Remains Low
Despite positive signals, key indicators of Bitcoin network activity do not yet reflect a recovery.
The number of active Bitcoin addresses, on-chain transaction volume, and transaction fee revenue have declined, approaching lower statistical levels.
According to Glassnode, this data indicates that investors do not feel an urgent need to conduct transactions on the Bitcoin network, and organic demand remains low.
Overall across the network, investor profitability has shown only slight improvement. Although the share of profitable Bitcoin has increased, the scale of realized losses on the network still exceeds realized profits.
Glassnode: "Bitcoin is Not Yet in a Widespread Bull Phase"
The company assessed the current market structure as a "recovery in transition."
Strengthening institutional money inflows, rising demand from spot and futures market buyers, and a decline in investor defensive positioning in options create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.
However, the fact that spot market liquidity remains low and Bitcoin network activity is weak indicates that the current recovery has not yet transformed into strong market-wide growth.
Bitcoin's ability to break through and sustain above the $66,000 level will be closely monitored as an indicator of whether the current recovery will evolve into a stronger upward trend.
*This is not investment advice.
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