价值237亿美元的比特币期权即将到期——为何交易员预期市场将掀起波澜

ambcryptoОпубліковано о 2025-12-25Востаннє оновлено о 2025-12-25

Анотація

12月26日，价值237亿美元的比特币期权即将到期，预计将引发市场大幅波动。比特币整个12月在8.5万至9.2万美元区间震荡，而此次季度加年度到期规模创下纪录，可能推动价格出现5%-7%的波动。分析师普遍认为，到期后比特币可能先跌至8.2-8.4万美元，随后反弹至最大痛点价格9.5万美元，甚至可能突破10万美元。看跌/看涨期权比率为0.38，显示市场情绪偏多。流动性因假期减少，叠加12月31日前的税务亏损收割操作，可能放大短期波动。但QCP Capital提醒，假期行情往往不可持续，流动性回归后价格可能出现回撤。

整个12月，比特币一直在8.5万至9.2万美元区间内交易。12月26日周五的期权到期很可能会打破这一僵局。

QCP Capital在最新的美国市场动态报告中指出，由于交易员在假期前平仓，流动性正在减弱。

这导致比特币和以太坊[ETH]的未平仓合约减少。由于年底期权到期，预计年底前会出现5%-7%的价格波动。

周五创纪录的到期规模达237亿美元，包括约30万份比特币期权合约和44.6万份IBIT期权合约。

最大痛点位于9.5万美元，同时在10万美元和8.5万美元也有大量行权价集中。这将如何影响比特币[BTC]的价格走势？

分析师一致认为比特币可能很快反弹

Alphractal创始人兼首席执行官Joao Wedson在X平台上发文强调了比特币当前的关键点位。看跌/看涨期权比率仅为0.38，最大痛点形成了强大的短期价格引力，可能将价格拉向9.5万美元。

在另一篇帖子中，Wedson通过清算水平阐明了其预期。

8.4万和9.5万美元附近的杠杆头寸在热力图上清晰可见，成为短期价格目标。BTC可能会先跌至8.2万-8.4万美元，然后反弹至9.5万美元甚至更高。

另一位用户David也提出了类似预期。该分析师观察到9万美元水平是虚假天花板，而10万美元水平是结构性磁力点。特别值得注意的是首次下探的8万-8.2万美元区间。

突破9万美元将触发上涨行情。

QCP Capital指出这轮涨势可能不可持续。

「...历史表明假期驱动的走势往往会出现均值回归。就像流动性低的周末暴涨通常在市场重新开盘后回调一样，圣诞节当周的价格走势通常也会随着1月流动性回归而消退。」

由于薄弱的交易账本遇上加密投资者在12月31日截止日期前的税损收割，假期价格波动可能格外剧烈。这些条件可能放大短期波动性而非抑制它。

最终观点

周五的期权到期是今年最大规模的（季度+年度），相当于237亿美元
分析师建议BTC若下探至8.2万-8.4万美元，可能在期权到期后向9.5万美元的最大痛点反弹

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Q12月26日到期的比特币期权总价值是多少？

A12月26日到期的比特币期权总价值为237亿美元。

Q分析师认为比特币价格在期权到期后可能如何波动？

A分析师预计比特币可能先下跌至82,000-84,000美元，然后反弹至95,000美元的最大痛点位置，甚至可能更高。

Q什么是比特币期权的最大痛点（Max Pain Point）？本次的最大痛点价格是多少？

A最大痛点是指期权到期时，使大多数期权买方遭受最大损失的价格水平。本次的最大痛点价格为95,000美元。

Q为什么QCP Capital认为年底的比特币涨势可能不可持续？

AQCP Capital指出，假期驱动的价格变动历史上往往会出现均值回归，就像低流动性的周末价格飙升通常会在市场重新开盘后回撤一样，圣诞节期间的价格行动通常会在1月份流动性回归后逐渐消退。

Q比特币的Put/Call比率是多少？这个比率说明了什么？

A比特币的Put/Call比率为0.38。这个较低的比率表明看涨期权（Call）的数量远多于看跌期权（Put），反映出市场参与者普遍对比特币价格持乐观态度。

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价值237亿美元的比特币期权即将到期——为何交易员预期市场将掀起波澜

Анотація

分析师一致认为比特币可能很快反弹

最终观点

Трендові криптовалюти

Пов'язані питання

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