Ethereum ETF outflows hit $1.42B – Will bulls defend $3K?

Key Takeaways 

Are institutions still interested in ETH? 

Only the treasury firm BitMine bought the dip. But spot ETFs saw the highest monthly sell-off. 

Will $3k slow the plunge? 

On-chain data showed a reversal was likely, but the macro print on November 20 could offer much clarity. 

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Institutional bid for Ethereum [ETH] is currently coming from BitMine Immersion alone. The Tom Lee-led treasury firm acquired an extra 54K ETH [worth $173 million]. But the spot U.S. ETH ETF complex was fully in a risk-off mode. 

So far in November, ETF investors have dumped $1.42 billion, marking the highest monthly sell-off since the products launched in 2024. 

Will $3k support hold for longer?

Even leveraged ETH bets by institutions have cooled off considerably, as shown by nearly $4 billion in Open Interest [OI] wiped out since the 10 October flash crash.

With it, the ETH basis trade, which involves buying spot ETH ETF and shorting on CME, has shrunk from 10% to 3% before steadying above 4%.

Despite the mixed institutional demand for ETH, the asset has managed to defend the $3k support for the past four days. 

In fact, according to Swissblock’s analysts, the altcoin triggered a bottom signal, based on the firm’s proprietary Liquidity Index. 

The analytics firm added, 

“It’s a matter of time: if liquidity is rebuilt in the coming weeks, the next expansion leg opens.”

Notably, a similar signal was flagged in late 2024 and early 2025. In each case, the liquidity reset was followed by recoveries above $4k. If history repeats, ETH may rebound soon. 

The Options traders’ activity reinforced a similar outlook. Over the past 24 hours, most of the call buying [bullish bets, represented by green bars] targeted $4000 and $3100 levels by 21st or 28th November. 

For bearish bets [red bars] and hedging activity, players sought protection against a decline to $3k and $2,500 for the end-November and December periods.

Put differently, some sophisticated players expected the plunge to hold at $2.5k if $3k support cracks. 

Overall, the market focus will shift to 20th November for the September Jobs report and clues on potential Fed rate cuts. 

A strong labor market would likely prompt the Fed to pause the December rate cut and could trigger another wave of selling.

However, a weak report could boost the odds of a rate cut and likely lead to relief and recovery.