远古巨鲸清仓的启示

深潮Опубліковано о 2025-07-29Востаннє оновлено о 2025-07-30

远古巨鲸正在交出筹码，机构正在逐步接棒。

撰文：刘教链

前天教链说到，所谓中本聪时代（Satoshi era）的一个远古巨鲸将其 8 万枚大饼（BTC）清仓完成了。这次事件被机构操盘手 Galaxy Digital 誉为「数字资产市场最早和最重要的退出之一」。那么，从此次重大退出事件中，我们又能获得哪些思考和启示呢？

首先回顾一下基本事实：

本次抛售的 BTC 来自于 2011 年初的建仓。其实这已经是后中本聪时代（post-Satoshi era）而非中本聪时代了，因为中本聪此时已然隐退。

抛售总量具体而言是约 80009 枚 BTC，约合 90 亿美刀。抛售的时间窗口是 2025.7.16 至 2025.7.25。

而此次抛售事件对市场的影响可谓是如同溅了一个小水花。BTC 的价格仅仅从再创新高后的 119k 下挫至 115k，仅约 3.5% 的跌幅，并在清仓次日就回升修复至 118k。

这一现象意味着什么？

这意味着，市场在几小时内就吸收掉了大约占总供应量千分之 4 的 BTC 而没有触发任何连环清算和连锁崩溃。

似乎看起来，加密市场的结构和韧性已经悄然发生了翻天覆地的变化。正如某些网友说的那样，这几乎是在向市场发出强烈信号，证明 BTC 已经具有极深的、机构级的流动性。这大大强化了 BTC 的市场韧性和承接力。

要知道，仅仅是在一年前，2024 年 6 月底至 7 月初，德国政府清仓了其持有的约 5 万枚 BTC（49,858 枚），平均抛售价格为 57.9k，获利约 28.8 亿。

值得注意的是，德府清仓的时间窗口是 2024.6.19 至 2024.7.13，此时 Mt.Gox 还没有开始分发其 BTC 赔付。

基本上，BTC 在德府清仓期间从 66k 最低下探至 53k，跌幅接近 20%。即便是后续叠加上 Mt.Gox 分发赔付，BTC 也只在 2024.8.5 最低回踩到 49k 而已，这是年底 BTC 冲上十万刀前的最后一次低价。

对比起来，曾经 7 万刀的 BTC 要用超 20% 的跌幅才能吸收掉 5 万枚 BTC 的抛压，而如今 12 万刀的 BTC 却只需要 3.5% 的跌幅就能吸收掉 8 万枚 BTC 的抛压。换句话说，曾经不到 30 亿刀的失血就能让 BTC 跌去超过 20%，而如今 90 亿美刀的失血只让 BTC 小跌 3.5% 并且迅速修复如初。多么不可思议呀！

要知道，BTC 价格越高，每一枚 BTC 产生的抛压就越大。7 万刀的一枚 BTC 抛售，需要市场提供 7 万刀来承接；而 12 万刀的一枚 BTC 抛售，需要市场提供 12 万刀来承接。

难道仅仅过了一年，BTC 的流动性深度和承接力就已经发生了如此巨大的飞跃？

另一个可资对比的经典案例则是 2022 年 5 月份 Luna/UST 崩盘事件中，UST 背后的操盘手 Do Kwon 被迫向市场中倾泻了 8 万枚 BTC。据「刘教链 Pro」2022.5.11 文章《UST 脱锚，算法稳定币魔咒再现》记述，「5 月 10 号，随着 UST 的剧烈脱锚，Do Kwon 同学卖掉了大饼以外的资产，也无力挽救。最终，他清空了之前空手套来的 8 万多枚大饼，为 UST 救市。」

这 8 万枚 BTC 正好卡在 2021 年年中「512」崩盘关键测试水平 3 万刀附近位置，直接就把二次反弹继续牛市的幻想一波带走。一个月后，BTC 正式失守 3 万刀牛熊分水岭，宣告进入深熊。

虽然不能把 2022 年深熊的总跌幅，即从 69k 到 16k 的近 77% 的跌幅都归咎于 Luna/UST 崩溃砸盘，那么即便是把 2022 年 5 月到 6 月从 3 万刀到 2 万刀的断崖式下跌记到它头上，那么也有高达 33% 的跌幅。

这 8 万多枚 BTC 砸得急切，姑且按照 3 万刀计算，也不过是区区 24 亿刀的失血量而已。

由此看出近几年来 BTC 市场结构和流动性承接力的变化来：

2022 年 3 万刀高度，8 万枚 BTC 抛售，透支 24 亿刀，加速进入深熊。

2024 年 6 万刀高度，5 万枚 BTC 抛售，透支 28 亿刀，年底开启牛市拉升，突破十万刀，站上历史新高度。

2025 年 12 万刀高度，8 万枚 BTC 抛售，透支 90 亿刀，虎躯一震，目前看起来尚无大碍。

当然，如果参考 2022 年的抛售，也许造成内伤需要一个多月才能显现效果，那么目前就可能还不足以下定论。

从交易所 BTC 存量来看，这波抛售看起来的确是迅速被「买买提」了。

对此，网友也有两种态度：

一种是认为，大的筹码该卖的都卖完了，之后车就轻了，这便有利于后市更轻松地拉升。

而另一种则认为，长期钻石手的抛售出现令人担忧，这或许暗示了可能接踵而至的抛售浪潮，甚至于长期信仰的悄然转变。

无论如何，BTC 的新时代或已悄然开启：远古巨鲸正在交出筹码，机构正在逐步接棒。

新时代需要新鲜血液，新阶段需要新的力量来主导，如此方能长江后浪推前浪，持续推动 BTC 滚滚向前，永不止息。

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