特朗普第二任期首次内阁会:关税、乌克兰、裁员、石油交易都谈到了

链捕手Опубліковано о 2025-02-27Востаннє оновлено о 2025-02-27

作者:何浩,华尔街见闻

据央视新闻,当地时间2月26日,美国总统特朗普召开其第二任期的首次内阁会议。

美东时间上午11点多,内阁会议开始附近,美股大体维持日内稍早的涨势,标普500指数上涨0.8%,道指上涨0.3%,纳指上涨1.3%,半导体指数上涨近2.8%。WTI原油期货上涨0.09%,报68.99美元/桶。

美乌矿产协议

据央视新闻,特朗普证实乌总统将于28日访美签署稀土相关协议。特朗普表示,乌克兰总统泽连斯基将于28日访问美国首都华盛顿特区,美乌将签署关于稀土等方面的协议。特朗普称,“我们将拿回我们的钱”。

关于即将签署的美乌矿产协议,特朗普介绍说,美国“将在稀土上与乌克兰合作”。美国希望通过达成矿产协议收回分配给乌克兰的3500亿美元。

据媒体此前报道,按照协议,美乌将共同设立一项基金,乌方会将本国石油、天然气、矿产等资源未来收益的50%注入该基金。美国将最大程度地拥有该基金产生的经济利益,将部分收入用于对乌克兰的再投资。

特朗普还说:“美国不会在结束俄乌冲突的协议中为乌克兰提供安全保障,但欧洲会这样做。”他还表示,乌克兰“可以忘掉”加入北约。

特朗普希望美国与俄罗斯进行更多会谈。特朗普说,俄罗斯总统普京“必须”在结束俄乌冲突的谈判中做出让步。他还表示,希望先看看美国是否能与俄罗斯达成协议,然后再谈放松制裁。特朗普称,维持和平很容易,但是达成(实现和平的)协议很难。

美国政府效率、赤字、裁员

据央视新闻,政府效率部负责人埃隆·马斯克,虽然并非内阁成员,也参加了会议。马斯克表示,政府效率部的总体目标是帮助解决巨额财政赤字。马斯克称,美国根本无法承受每年2万亿美元的财政赤字。如果这种情况继续下去,美国将面临“破产”。他计划在2026财年实现一万亿美元的赤字削减。

特朗普表示,寻求让政府效率部(DOGE)给美国联邦政府节省高达1万亿美元的开支,希望在短期内合理地平衡联邦预算,想要在明年或之后平衡预算。

特朗普表示,必须谨慎选择国务院的裁员对象。美国将削减政府,缩小政府规模。美国环境保护署署长泽尔丁计划削减该机构65%的员工。

据悉,一份由联邦人力资源机构人事管理办公室和管理与预算办公室发布的备忘录显示,特朗普政府已指示各机构与“政府效率团队负责人”合作,在3月13日之前提交“重组计划”,为大规模裁员做好准备。

特朗普提到通胀

特朗普承认,美国通胀下滑,在一定程度上归功于高利率。

特朗普谈及关税

市场高度关注特朗普的关税议题。在当地时间周三的内阁会议上,特朗普谈及对加拿大、墨西哥、欧盟的关税。

据央视新闻,当地时间2月26日,特朗普在内阁会议上表示,大部分关税将继续实施。美国将从4月2日起对进口自墨西哥的商品和进口自加拿大的非能源类商品征收25%的关税。

特朗普于2月1日签署行政令,对进口自墨西哥、加拿大两国的产品加征25%的关税,其中对加拿大能源产品的加税幅度为10%。3日,特朗普宣布对两国加征关税措施暂缓30天实施,并继续进行谈判。根据这一决定,相关加征关税措施将于3月4日生效。特朗普24日称,对墨西哥和加拿大加征关税的计划将“如期推进”。此外,特朗普13日签署备忘录,要求相关部门确定与每个外国贸易伙伴的“对等关税”。

据新华社,特朗普说,美方已决定对欧盟征收25%关税,并将“很快”宣布。特朗普当天在白宫举行内阁会议时对媒体说,整体来说,对欧盟关税税率将设定在25%,适用于汽车和其他各种商品。欧盟“占美国便宜”,以各种理由“拒绝接受美国的汽车和农产品”,美国和欧盟之间有大约“3000亿美元”的贸易逆差。

美国政治新闻网站《政治报》此前报道指出,美欧贸易逆差并没有特朗普所言这么大。根据欧盟的数据,2023年美国与欧盟的货物贸易逆差为1558亿欧元(约合1686亿美元),然而在服务贸易方面,美国实现了1040亿欧元(约合1126亿美元)顺差。整体而言,美国对欧盟的贸易逆差为518亿欧元(约合560亿美元)。

需要说明的是,特朗普周三就对加拿大、墨西哥以及欧盟征收关税的问题给出了一系列相互矛盾的回答:

在周三的内阁会议上,有记者问特朗普是否计划在3月4日对加拿大和墨西哥正式实施25%关税。特朗普表示,“我不会停止关税。”

特朗普本月早些时候宣布了这些关税措施,但随后与两国领导人达成协议,同意将实施日期推迟一个月,以换取更严格的边境管控措施。这一延期将在下周到期。

然而周三当日稍后,特朗普又称对墨西哥和加拿大的关税将于4月2日生效。

美国商务部长卢特尼克在会上说,针对各国的总体关税行动将于4月2日实施。

有分析称,不清楚特朗普是否是指给墨西哥和加拿大额外的时间,还是将这项关税措施与美国商务部和美国贸易代表办公室正在制定的另一项全球“对等关税”计划混淆了。特朗普对关税时间表的表态经常让市场感到困惑,因为他在回答记者提问时,往往同时提及多个计划。

在特朗普周三的表态之后,市场认为他可能推迟对加拿大和墨西哥进口商品加征关税,导致墨西哥、加拿大、欧洲的相关资产一度上涨:

  • 墨西哥比索兑美元短线快速上扬,从20.45比索下方拉升至20.30比索上方并刷新日高。

  • 美元兑加元涨约0.2%,报1.4342。

  • 欧元兑美元几乎完全收复日内稍早失地。在美上市的iShares安硕欧洲ETF涨0.75%,iShares安硕欧元区ETF涨0.89%,持稳于日高附近。

  • 电动汽车概念股Lucid跌10.7%,特斯拉跌0.9%,本田汽车涨1.5%,福特汽车涨1.6%,通用汽车涨5.5%,中概股小鹏汽车涨15%。

不过此后相关资产走出受关税冲击的反应,美股持续回落,欧元和在美上市欧洲ETF冲高回落:

  • 美股回吐早盘大多数涨幅,纳指100回吐早盘超过1%的涨幅转跌,刷新日低。成分股Axon盘中涨16.81%,Intuit涨11.46%,美光科技和博通涨超4.4%,英伟达涨3.4%表现靠前,Meta涨2.6%,Palantir涨1.87%;苹果则跌超2.7%,特斯拉跌超2.8%,卡夫亨氏、亿滋国际、百事可乐、VRSK、KDP跌超3%,AppLovin跌12.69%仍然表现最差。

  • 欧元兑美元重新跌超0.2%,最低触及1.0484。在美上市iShares安硕MSCI欧洲ETF从日高58.86美元回落,日内上涨0.22%、刷新日低至58.50美元。在美上市iShares安硕MSCI欧元区ETF涨0.35%,刷新日低至53.38美元,快速脱离日高53.82美元。

此后,欧元兑美元跌0.28%,报1.0486。法新社援引欧盟委员会消息报道称,欧盟将“立即、坚定不移地”反制美国关税。

美总统特朗普下令终止与委内瑞拉的石油交易

据央视新闻,当地时间2月26日,特朗普宣布,撤销前总统拜登给予委内瑞拉的“让步”。特朗普表示,他正在撤销“2022年11月26日的石油交易协议”中的“让步”。

委内瑞拉2019年1月起中断与美国外交关系,美国则不断扩大对委经济制裁,包括禁止进口委内瑞拉原油、冻结委石油公司在美境内资产。2022年11月26日,美国政府宣布向雪佛龙石油公司发放许可证,允许企业有限恢复在委内瑞拉的原油开采业务,并将该国的原油运往美国。

WTI原油期货跌0.54%,报68.56美元/桶。

“移民金卡”将在约两周后启动

在周三的内阁会议上,特朗普再次提到了“金卡”计划,并表示该计划将在约两周后启动,产生的收入可以用来偿还国家债务。

此前当地时间2月25日,特朗普在白宫对媒体称,他打算两周后开始出售定价500万美元一张的美国“金卡”,目标人群是富有的移民。据他称,这种“金卡”不会直接给予购买者美国公民身份,因此不需要通过美国国会,但将赋予同“绿卡”一样的权利,是“获取美国公民身份的给力路径”。

白宫拒绝美联社等媒体记者报道特朗普内阁会议

据央视新闻,根据美政府关于媒体报道的新政策,白宫拒绝了美联社等新闻机构记者进入特朗普第二个总统任期的首次内阁会议。据悉,白宫拒绝美联社的一名摄影师和路透社、《赫芬顿邮报》和德国《每日镜报》的三名记者进入白宫。

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