生死时刻! 准备迎接下跌？LTC 能否春光再现？

金色财经Опубліковано о 2024-12-17Востаннє оновлено о 2024-12-17

老美大选前夕，加密货币市场的波动性急剧上升。在此之中，莱特币（LTC）已达到成败攸关的水平，可能导致交易员数百万美元的头寸被清算。

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莱特币（LTC）技术分析

莱特币 (LTC) 处于看涨通道模式内，目前处于下限，充当支撑位。从历史上看，每当 LTC 价格达到这一水平时，它就会经历购买压力和上行反弹。然而，这一次，交易员和投资者预计会出现类似的上行走势。

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根据最近的价格走势，如果 LTC 保持在 64.5 美元以上，那么未来几天该资产很有可能上涨 16%，达到 77 美元的水平。

但由于大选等造成短期内整个加密货币市场的剧烈波动，LTC 可能因此无法守住这一支撑位。如果发生这种情况，该资产的价格可能会下跌 15%，并在未来几天达到 55 美元的水平。

截至目前，LTC 的日线交易价格低于 200 指数移动平均线 (EMA)，表明存在下行趋势。同时，其相对强弱指数 (RSI) 表明未来几天可能出现上涨，因为目前处于超卖区域。

链上指标

链上指标进一步支持了 LTC 的喜忧参半的情绪。根据链上分析公司Coinglass 的数据，LTC 的多头/空头比率目前为 1.001，表明过去 24 小时内多头和空头的参与程度相当。

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此外，LTC 的未平仓合约在过去 24 小时内保持不变，表明在价格徘徊在关键水平时，交易者的仓位仍然安全。目前，50.01% 的顶级交易者持有多头仓位，而 49.95% 的持有空头仓位。

莱特币价格预测：成败时刻，迎接下跌？

莱特币价格在上周早些时候遭遇阻力并收于 200 日指数移动平均线 (EMA) 70.63 美元下方，随后于周日跌破并收于上升趋势线下方（该趋势线由自 8 月初以来的多个低点组成）。目前 LTC 的价格继续下跌至 66.23 美元左右。

如果上升趋势线突破水平 68 美元左右成为阻力位，LTC 可能从当前水平下跌 11% 以上，重新测试 8 月 27 日的低点 59 美元。

日线图上的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 指向下方，读数为 43，低于其中性水平 50，表明看跌势头正在增强。

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Santiment 的 Age Consumed 指数与技术角度的看跌前景一致。该指数的飙升表明休眠代币（长期存储在钱包中的代币）正在流动，它们可用于发现短期局部顶部或底部。

对于 LTC 来说，历史表明，莱特币价格在飙升之后会下跌。周六的最新上涨也预示着 LTC 已准备好进入下跌趋势。

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Santiment 的网络实际利润/亏损 (NPL) 指标也预示着看跌前景。该指标显示基于代币链上交易量的每日网络级投资回报率 (ROI)。代币的 NPL 大幅飙升表明其持有者平均正在以可观的利润出售他们的资产。另一方面，大幅下跌意味着代币持有者平均正在实现亏损，这表明恐慌性抛售和投资者投降。

就 LTC 而言，不良贷款指标从周五到周六从 -649,360 下降至 -6554 万。这一负面下降表明持有者平均意识到了损失并增加了抛售压力。

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然而，如果 LTC 收复 200 日均线 70.63 美元并收于周六高点 71.25 美元上方，看跌论点将失效。这种情况将导致莱特币价格上涨 7%，重新测试 10 月 19 日高点 76.19 美元。

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