От слабых рук к сильным: долгосрочные инвесторы скупают биткоин на фоне паники спекулянтов

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2024-05-10Востаннє оновлено о 2024-09-10

Динамика цены биткоина за последний месяц существенно повлияла на поведение инвесторов. По данным аналитической платформы CryptoQuant, краткосрочные держатели (STH) распродали более 21 000 BTC за 30 дней до 8 сентября. Такой масштабный исход сопоставим с рекордными показателями.

Переток капитала от «слабых рук» к «сильным»

CryptoQuant отслеживает 30-дневное изменение чистой позиции как краткосрочных, так и долгосрочных держателей (LTH). Аналитики платформы отмечают, что за последние две недели наблюдается значительное снижение чистых позиций STH. Это указывает на то, что краткосрочные инвесторы продают свои активы в ответ на недавнюю волатильность рынка.

Аналитик CryptoQuant IT Tech выделяет несколько ключевых тенденций среди STH:

  • Уход с рынка
  • Снижение рисков
  • Сокращение чистых позиций
Динамика позиций краткосрочных держателей биткоина. Источник: CryptoQuant

Стоит отметить, что такое масштабное 30-дневное снижение не наблюдалось с середины 2021 года.

Долгосрочные держатели наращивают позиции

В отличие от краткосрочных спекулянтов, долгосрочные инвесторы активно накапливают биткоин. За тот же 30-дневный период LTH увеличили свои чистые позиции на 22 000 BTC, что практически равно объему распродаж STH. Это самый значительный прирост за последние несколько лет.

Динамика позиций долгосрочных держателей биткоина. Источник: CryptoQuant

IT Tech отмечает: «Усиление накопления со стороны LTH может привести к стабилизации цены и подготовить рынок к потенциальному восстановлению, в то время как распродажи STH могут создать краткосрочное давление на цену BTC».

Изменение структуры владения

По расчетам CryptoQuant, краткосрочные держатели сейчас владеют чуть менее 18% доступного предложения BTC. Средняя цена покупки для STH, которая обычно служит долгосрочной поддержкой во время бычьих рынков, в настоящее время находится около $64 000. Однако недавно эта тенденция оказалась ненадежной, что отражает значительные нереализованные убытки среди краткосрочных инвесторов.

Текущая ситуация демонстрирует классический сценарий перетока капитала от «слабых рук» к «сильным». Долгосрочные инвесторы, уверенные в перспективах биткоина, используют падение цены для наращивания позиций, в то время как краткосрочные спекулянты фиксируют убытки и покидают рынок.

Этот процесс перераспределения может заложить фундамент для будущего роста, когда большая часть предложения окажется сконцентрирована в руках наиболее стойких держателей. Однако в краткосрочной перспективе продолжающиеся распродажи со стороны STH могут оказывать дополнительное давление на цену биткоина.

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