Arthur Hayes：短期看跌，但不会因此出售加密货币

marsbitОпубліковано о 2024-09-03Востаннє оновлено о 2024-09-04

火星财经消息，9 月 4 日，BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 在最新博客文章中深入分析了当前美联储政策与财政环境对市场的深远影响。他指出，尽管美联储自 2022 年以来通过持续加息努力遏制通胀，但政府庞大的财政支出依然是通胀高企的主要原因。Hayes 认为，由于政治压力和选举周期的因素，政府难以大幅削减支出或提高税收，这将导致美国经济继续在通胀与增长的双重压力下徘徊。面对这种局面，美联储可能不再进一步加息，而市场自身可能会通过调整利率水平来应对高债务融资成本，10 年期美国国债收益率或将再度攀升至 5%，引发金融市场的新一轮波动。

Hayes 特别强调，当前美联储的政策不确定性对加密货币市场的影响尤为显著。他指出，比特币价格已经成为美元流动性状况的最敏感指标之一。在美联储的利率政策和财政部的流动性操作之间，比特币等加密资产的价格波动显现出了与传统金融市场的深度联动。随着美联储可能在 2024 年再度降息，市场对美债收益率的担忧增加，这将使得投资者更加关注美元流动性对加密资产的价格影响。Hayes 认为，如果利率再次上升且市场流动性收紧，比特币和其他加密货币可能会面临新一轮的价格回调。

此外，Hayes 还提出，美国财政部长 Janet Yellen 可能会通过发行更多短期国债（T-bills）和调整财政政策来应对市场的不稳定，旨在增加市场流动性，以防止金融系统因债务成本上升而陷入困境。Hayes 预测，这些举措将对包括加密货币在内的风险资产产生重要影响。一旦美国财政部释放出增加流动性的信号，加密货币市场或将迎来新的上涨机会。特别是在全球央行政策持续摇摆的情况下，加密资产有望成为投资者寻求对冲和避险的主要选择。Hayes 强调，尽管短期内比特币价格可能会因流动性紧缩而波动，但从长远来看，随着流动性重新注入市场，加密货币的牛市将有望重启。

Hayes 表示，「我的观点转变使我的手一直悬停在购买按钮上。我不会因为短期看跌而出售加密货币。正如我解释的那样，我的看跌只是暂时的。」

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