Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

币界网Опубліковано о 2024-08-23Востаннє оновлено о 2024-08-23

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作者：Cookie

就在昨晚，NFT 市场 Magic Eden 终于官宣了其 Token $ME。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

毫无疑问，$ME 将是近段时间以来，NFT 玩家们所能期望的、收获最大的空投。那么，有什么数据可以让我们初探自己手上的「Magic Eden 钻石」将价值几何？在 NFT 市场已经疲软无比的今天，又有哪些是值得让我们对 Magic Eden 抱有期待的呢？

空投会何时到来？

Magic Eden 官推在 5 月曾发布过这样一条推文，「钱包内 Token 认领产品将在第 3 季度末到来」。这也符合了上面那张截图中官宣 $ME 那条推文的说法，$ME 将在 Magic Eden 钱包中进行领取。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

而如果我们再往前翻一翻 Magic Eden 的官推，Magic Eden 的正式上线是在 2021 年的 9 月 18 日（更早前还有测试）。所以，$ME 的空投会不会发生在今年的 9 月 18 日，也就是 Magic Eden 的三周年生日这一天呢？

价格预测？

在今年的 6 月，Magic Eden 宣布可以燃烧其 NFT 系列「Magic Tickets」来兑换「钻石」奖励。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

目前这个兑换「钻石」的活动已经截止了。在一个月的时间内，Magic Tickets 的地板价基本上稳定在 0.4 SOL 附近，而最低等级的 Magic Tickets 每张可以兑换 500 钻石。我们简单粗暴地取那一个月内 $SOL 的价格为 140 美元来估计的话，每颗「钻石」的成本是 0.112 美元。

但在那之后，「钻石」的 Farming 活动并没有停止而是持续进行，因此 0.112 美元的价格显然已经无法有效地在现在为我们提供参考。小编选择援引 @crypto_laodong 的分析——钻石目前成本在 0.013 至 0.023 美元之间。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

由于目前还没有空投细则以及 Tokenomics 披露，所以我们很难对即将到来的空投进行价格预测。不过，根据小编在老外 OTC 的观察来看，老外们对场外交易 Magic Eden「钻石」的兴趣似乎不是很高，一些挂售单也只是出现在一周前，想要出售的价格大致在 0.04 - 0.05 美元每个「钻石」。

会是「大毛」吗？

考虑到目前 NFT 市场的惨淡，很难说 Magic Eden 会是一个「大毛」。能供我们参照的最好标的，自然是 Blur + Blast，这二者的 FDV 相加不到 20 亿美元。不单单用 Blur 对标 Magic Eden 的理由是 Magic Eden 已经推出了自己的钱包「Magic Eden Wallet」，不管是从官方的表态还是动作上来看，都是要做全链大应用生态的节奏，因此把 Blast 的价值也算进来比较合适。

接着，Magic Eden 已经是目前 No.1 的 NFT 市场，按道理其 FDV 应该要高于 Blur + Blast。但是，现在到我们前面预测的 Token 发行时间也所剩无几，可能不到一个月。在这么短的时间内，小编不认为 NFT 市场会出现什么大新闻引爆大家的热情，所以就算比 Blur + Blast 高，可能也高不到哪里去。

不过，Magic Eden 自然是有其优势在的。首先，Magic Eden 是现在最活跃也是最赚钱的 NFT 市场。在过去的 30 天内，Magic Eden 的活跃用户数只比 OpenSea 少了 2 千人。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

但看一下各链的活跃用户占比，Magic Eden 占据了「最活跃的现在」Solana 以及「最有希望的未来」Bitcoin。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

过去一个月内，Solana 上的活跃 NFT 玩家数量是最多的。Polygon 虽然看着唬人，但是本身「Wash Trading」很多。或者用最简单的说法——可能从来没有一个令您印象深刻的 Polygon NFT 项目，也很久没有一个传播甚广的新 ETH NFT 项目了。曾经的 NFT 玩家，在冲新项目这块，目前主要都在 Solana 和比特币上。

在过去 30 日内，Magic Eden 的营收也是最高的，达到 180 万美元，遥遥领先 OpenSea 和 Tensor。

Magic Eden终于发币，如何对其进行估值？

虽然 Magic Eden 在自己的「老家」Solana 上遭到了 Tensor 的挑战，但基本二者还是平分秋色，Magic Eden 自身的用户群形成了 Solana + 比特币的「杠铃结构」。在比特币生态中，Magic Eden 目前还占据着符文交易这一块的头把交椅。因此如果之后符文迎来爆发，Magic Eden 的符文 Swap 功能上线，他们在比特币生态中有望收获更多。

但是这一点会抬高 $ME 发行时的行情吗，尤其是符文乃至 Ordinals 生态还不算真正茁壮成长起来的当下？小编表示，不太乐观。

结语

无论如何，Magic Eden 的空投对 NFT 玩家来说无疑是令人激动的，毕竟，久旱逢甘霖啊。况且，回想起当时交给 OpenSea 的高额「开户费」，就更没有理由不期待和支持 Magic Eden 给的熊市暖心福利了。

只是希望，这个「毛」最后可以大一些，再大一些...

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