pump.fun对Solana生态利弊分析：毒药还是解药？

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-07-27Востаннє оновлено о 2024-07-29

Анотація

如果你是Solana官方，你会怎么选？

原创｜Odaily星球日报（@OdailyChina）
作者｜Wenser（@wenser2010）

7 月 24 日，Solana 生态 Meme 币发行平台 pump.fun 累计收入突破 7000 万美元大关，成为本轮周期一大现象级产品。随之而来的，则是有关于 pump.fun 对 Solana 生态影响是好是坏的讨论。支持者认为，Solana 生态借 pump.fun 迎来 Meme 币热潮，吸引了资金、流量与开发者的进入；反对者则认为，pump.fun 带给 Solana 生态更多的是 Rug 骗局、网络拥堵以及垃圾 Meme 币。Odaily星球日报将于本文对此进行简要分析，供读者以较为全面的视角看待此事。
pump.fun：时势造英雄的产物

5 月初，Solana 生态新发行 SPL 代币续创历史新高，多达 14648 个，这一成绩背后的主要推动力量，就来源于 pump.fun，新发行代币数量占比超 50% 。彼时的 pump.fun，更多被人视作“一键发币平台”，“金狗 Meme 币”相对较少，但已引发不少市场关注，Odaily星球日报资深作者南枳对此也进行了完整介绍，详见《Solana 系代币增速续创历史新高的推手，解读增长发动机 Pump.fun》一文。
回顾 pump.fun 的发展历程，重要的节点包括以下几个：

3 月中旬由 BOME、SLERF 引领的 Solana 生态 Meme 币热潮真正为其注入了新的流动性和市场注意力，也为后续 Meme 币项目的爆发式增长埋下了伏笔。
5 月，pump.fun 遭遇闪电贷攻击，被盗 120 万美元，后查清由前员工所为（详情可参考Odaily星球日报资深作者夫如何所作的《前员工保留特权窃取 120 万美元，pump.fun 被盗事件有多离谱？》一文），尽管一度面临信任危机，但该项目还是通过妥善处理度过了这次难关。后续其还上线了直播功能，开启了“Meme 币新媒体时代”。近日，“为你推荐”信息流功能也已上线该平台。
7 月初，Pump.fun 上发布的代币数量已超过 117 万个，累计收入超 5000 万美元；并于 7 月 1 日达成“过去 24 小时收入 199 万美元”的新成就，一度超越以太坊、波场、Solana 等区块链网络，位居 DefiLlama 协议收入首位。

而得益于 pump.fun 平台上每时每刻都在活跃的 Meme 币项目，Solana 生态也成为了近几个月内震荡市场中“唯一的光”——

6 月 24 日，据 SolanaFloor 披露数据显示，Solana 链上 DEX 交易总额突破 4000 亿美元，交易用户总量超 2000 万，Swap 交易量约 15.9 亿笔。
7 月 22 日，DeFiLlama 数据显示，Solana 链上 DEX 过去 7 天交易量为 145.97 亿美元，连续三周排名第一， 7 日增幅为 9.73% 。
7 月 24 日，据 Blockworks Research 研究员 Ryan Connor 表示，Solana 在过去 30 天的去中心化交易所（DEX）交易量上首次超过了以太坊。按照这一标准，Solana 已成为最常使用的链。

可以说，数据层面的成果，远远不能完全体现出 pump.fun 为 Solana 生态带来的流动性、关注度和影响力等方面的价值。某种意义上而言，pump.fun 成为支撑 Solana “生态牛市”的发动机。
但鲜花着锦、烈火烹油的繁荣背后，pump.fun 也如同“毒药”一样，渗透进 Solana 生态的方方面面。
pump.fun：生态速衰速朽化的罪魁祸首
正如一句话所说：“那些成就你的，也可能限制你。” pump.fun 对 Solana 生态的促进作用有目共睹，但负面影响也不在少数。具体而言，主要的负面影响包括以下几点：
Rug 盘横行，骗局数不胜数

根据 Dune 数据统计，目前 pump.fun 平台发行的 Meme 币项目已接近 150 万个，而如此大量的项目中，还有很多关卡需要突破：
满足 6.9 万美元市值的项目，平台才会将 1.2 万美元的流动性添加进入 Raydium（Solana 头部 DEX）并销毁 LP；再之后， 10 万市值、 20 万市值、 50 万市值、 100 万市值乃至 1000 万市值，对于这些 Meme 币项目来说，每一关都是一道门槛，稍有不慎便是直接归零的结局。只有屈指可数的项目，如 BILLY（表情包小狗）能够实现突破 1 亿美元市值这样的成就。自然而然，超低的发币门槛，也造就了数不胜数的 Rug 骗局。

pump.fun 相关数据

名人币名利场，pump.fun 成收割新平台
根据加密 KOL Slorg 的统计，市面上有一定关注度的 30 多个名人概念 Meme 币市值在短短几天到几十天不等，市值下跌至少 80% 左右。而 pump.fun 则为这些名人币提供了最为便利的工具，一定程度上成为“名人币收割”的“帮凶”。

Slorg 对名人币市值表现的相关统计

博眼球、秀下限，或引发恶劣极端事件

此前，pump.fun 推出直播功能后，一度引发市场的高度关注，而在此前一位名为 Mikol 的开发者就曾于 5 月在 Pump.fun 上推出了一个名为 TruthOrDare（DARE）的 Meme 币并在之后的 Twich 直播中因意外引燃身上的酒精而导致全身三度烧伤送往医院；此前，一个名为“LIVEWITHMOM”的 Meme 币项目直播就曾根据币价涨跌和弹幕要求来进行某未成年人与“母亲”的直播画面，并涉及到部分裸露身体隐私部位的画面，不得不说，Meme 币项目一旦疯起来，很容易导致一系列失控事件的发生。

LIVEMOM 项目直播画面

除此以外，pump.fun 导致 Solana 生态 Meme 币项目越来越 “PVP”，一个项目在短短的十几分钟、几分钟就能直线归零，MEV 夹子和各类狙击机器人的存在也让 Solana 生态陷入一种“饮鸩止渴”的狂飙之势而无法自拔，长期来看，正经项目的关注度和流动性也会日益凋零。

小结：pump.fun 还将以“赌场”形式存在，但平台作为决定其生命周期

总的来说，pump.fun 对 Solana 生态还是利大于弊的，正如之前文章《一键发币成“加密新密码”，pump.fun 之后还有哪个平台能打？》提到的，一键发币平台成了助力生态发展的重要工具，很多类似项目也竞相在不同区块链网络谋求自己的生态站位。
因此，在 VC 币越发遇冷、BTC 现货 ETF、ETH 现货 ETF 相继上市的现在，pump.fun 还将以“链上赌场”的形式继续存在，并且因其较大的流动性和较高的关注度吸引更多的人前仆后继地争相涌入。
但如果该平台无法在寻求合理方法限制 Rug 盘、骗局以及避免极端事件发生等方面做出反应，或许有朝一日，也将迎来“流量反噬”，被生态和市场无情抛弃。这或许也是 Solana 官方近期主推 Blinks 等功能的原因之一。
至于现在，我们只能说“流动性是最诚实的体现”。

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