Metrics Ventures 市场观察 ：新的动量将于震荡中孕育

深潮Опубліковано о 2024-07-17Востаннє оновлено о 2024-07-17

动量的积累仍需在震荡和再次收敛中产生，保持耐心是为良策。

撰文：Metrics Ventures

市场总体行情与市场走势的盘点和点评

过去的一个月行情对多数持筹者来说是煎熬的，波动率的反复收敛与资产价格的形成了共振的向下趋势，并在 7 月初在各类外部抛压及的刺激下向下引爆，单日的合约持仓量下降幅度接近 FTX 当日。截止笔者撰写本月报之时，市场在周五宏观数据的基础上企稳，并在周六形成了惯性的反弹。本轮杠杆出清中出现了以下几个现象：

①大量山寨币在大幅超跌后第一次放量企稳；

②比特币在前次上行通道的中轨叠加矿工成本线附近得到支撑；

③SOL 整体结构较为强势，然而 ETH 回吐了全部 ETF 刺激的涨幅；

截至目前，比特币形成了扩散的盘整结构，但仍然没有跌破上行趋势，沿袭我们 6 月的分析，此处的扩散有利于筹码的重新盘整，对于长期趋势是健康的。考虑到我们仍然认为年内降息不可避免，我们相信 50,000 美金左右是良好的中长期筹码再吸收位置，对于大部分山寨而言，我们认为短期的波动率增大并不形成反转趋势，但其中亦有 MM 强势的币种，仍需进一步观察。

总而言之，市场相较上月已然更加健康，但动量的积累仍需在震荡和再次收敛中产生，保持耐心是为良策。

板块生态方面

ETH 生态以及 Defi：Defi 板块依旧疲软，整个 ETH 板块反弹无力。

圈内资金会被 SOL 和 TON 吸引，关于 ETH 的买盘很少。而且由于 ETH 链上 gas 费用持续低迷，长期处于 10gwei 以下，导致 ETH 处于净增发状态，潜在抛压是 BTC 的 2x。

BTC ETF 的资金净流入是 500 亿美金,消化了 150 亿美金的 GBTC 抛压，用时 6 个月。灰度 ETH 规模是 BTC 的 1/3，也就是说 ETH ETF 需要有 1/3 的 BTC ETF 吸引力才有可能做到跟 BTC 一样的效果。但是 ETH ETF 的流入可能很难超过 BTC 的 1/3。

综合来看 ETF 会以 BTC 净流入为主，ETH 为辅。我们认为 ETH 的资金净流入会比 BTC 差很多，因此价格表现不会有 BTC 那样强劲。同时 ETH 的产出抛压无法被消化，不断的增发也会削弱 ETH ETF 持有人的信心。因此对于 ETH/BTC 交易对在中期依旧不看好。

Layerzero: $ZRO 筹码结构不错，散户手里几乎没什么筹码，后续可能还会有行情，但是在这个位置我们不会再去配置。

TON: 作为这一轮的两大 alpha 生态之一，TON 生态依旧值得关注，TON 生态目前唯一二级标的还是 $NOT，做市场在底部放量买入，后续可持续关注

SOL：Solana 依旧是我们在这一轮看好的生态，SOL 在 120-130 一线的强支撑位依旧确认有效。Multicoin Capital 将捐款价值 1M 的 SOL 給 Sentinel 行动基金（支持加密货币的候选人进入美国参议院）

SOL 生态中的比较好的 alpha 标的是 $JUP 和 $JTO。

SOL 生态中有几个不错的 meme 可以关注：$Billy/$Aura/$Retardio

AI: AI 板块这个月基本跟随大盘，表现比较一般，但是我们认为作为这轮炒作的主线，我们依然密切关注 AI 板块的后续表现，板块中的龙头项目是 TAO 和 RNDR。

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