SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-02-15Востаннє оновлено о 2024-02-15

Анотація

昨天的市场反弹最初由固定收益市场所引领，在地缘政治风险事件（俄罗斯新的太空核武能力）和温和经济数据的推动下，周二CPI熊平走势的回撤进一步扩大为大幅反弹。

年底的 BTC 和 ETH 的期货升水/溢价纷纷冲回 11% + 。

卖 6 月底 8 万的 BTC 的看涨期权，现在年化收入（币本位）是 13.6% ，但是看这个涨势，我都不敢卖……

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

昨天的市场反弹最初由固定收益市场所引领，在地缘政治风险事件（俄罗斯新的太空核武能力）和温和经济数据的推动下，周二 CPI 熊平走势的回撤进一步扩大为大幅反弹。美国 PPI 修正值整体下修至 -0.2% ，核心 PPI 下修至 -0.1% ，使得整体年化率分别降至 1% 和 1.8% ，在昨天令市场失望的 CPI 数据后，这个数据结果令人松了口气。此外，英国 CPI 也大幅低于预期（环比 -0.6% vs 预期的 -0.3% ），英国央行 Bailey 评论称，“通胀放缓将进一步影响薪资谈判”，CPI 结果也使得市场对固定收益的需求异常强劲（30 年期德国公债发行的投标倍数为 2.27 x；Bristol Myers 规模 130 亿的债券供应吸引了 850 亿的资金），为债券反弹增添了动力。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

此外，美联储 Goolsbee 意外发表了相当直接和鸽派的评论，称市场“不应因一个月的 CPI 数据而激动”，且“只是一个月的数据，不是几个月”，他还表示，美联储的通胀目标是基于 PCE 而非 CPI，并且“通胀率已经连续 6 到 7 个月往目标接近”，这种明确的鸽派态度与周二 Powell 与立法机构的闭门会议形成了鲜明对比，Powell 在会议上表示，低收入工作者的工资增长一直高于通胀，“而现在对于大多数工作者来说来说越来越是如此”，针对超出预期的 CPI，Powell 重申通胀数据“符合他们先前的预期”，美联储将依赖即将发布的 PCE 报告来提供“更多情报”，同时他拒绝给出任何关于美联储何时降息的线索。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

股市也收复了前一日跌幅的 60-70% ，主要受企业股票回购计划的激励，最近宣布回购的公司包括 Las Vegas Sands、Ford、GM、RTX、Airbnb，当然还有 Uber 和 Meta；Uber 在首度实现全年盈利后，宣布 70 亿美元的股票回购计划，而 Meta 早些时候宣布增加 500 亿美元股票回购，并将首度发放股息。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Пов'язані матеріали

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic IPO Odds Exceed 80%, Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again, Triggering Oil Price Volatility

**Market Digest** **AI & Tech:** Anthropic is widely expected to announce an IPO before November 2026, raising questions about balancing its trillion-dollar valuation ambitions with its core "AI safety" mission. Brands are increasingly adopting AI-generated virtual influencers for marketing. Cloudflare introduced temporary accounts for AI agents to ease automation workflows. **Infrastructure & Hardware:** Google's IPv6 traffic surpassed 50%, marking a major internet milestone. Goldman Sachs warned that massive projected AI capital expenditure ($5.3T) is approaching credit saturation limits, potentially curbing the "AI arms race." **Space & Robotics:** SpaceX's IPO saw a historic $370M retail buying frenzy in three days. Hyundai Motor Group plans to acquire full ownership of Boston Dynamics. Elon Musk speculated about future "septillion-dollar" investments in antimatter for interstellar travel. **Energy & Geopolitics:** Iran's military announced another closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating a ceasefire, causing oil market volatility. However, ship-tracking data indicated some traffic continued. Concurrently, Iran resumed crude loadings at Kharg Island, potentially releasing up to 20 million barrels to the market. **Finance & Macro:** A European CLO (collateralized loan obligation) experienced its first post-2008-crisis-era equity tranche default, raising alarms in credit markets. Nomura warned that new Federal Reserve Chair Wash's perceived hawkish debut speech could signal a significant policy shift. **The Undercurrent:** Seemingly disparate events—the Strait of Hormuz tension, the European CLO default, and warnings on AI spending—point to a tightening of global liquidity and rising marginal costs across energy, credit, and tech investment. Meanwhile, capital continues chasing grand narratives like space exploration and advanced AI, highlighting a divergence where old-world leverage frays as new-world stories grow more ambitious.

marsbit13 хв тому

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic IPO Odds Exceed 80%, Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again, Triggering Oil Price Volatility

marsbit13 хв тому

ETH/BTC Ratio Falls Back To Early-2023 Levels As Traders Debate Ethereum Value

The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen back to 0.027, a level last seen in early 2023, and is significantly below its 2021 peak near 0.088. This prompts a key market debate: Is Ethereum (ETH) now a historically cheap contrarian buy against Bitcoin (BTC), or is it in a structural decline? Analyst Woetoe highlighted this question. Simultaneously, ETH's USD chart (ETHUSDT) indicates bearish correction risk. Analysis from SwallowAcademy points to a broken market structure following an aggressive weekly open, with price rolling over below the $1,774 high and a potential pullback toward the $1,660-$1,723 zone. This creates a complex setup. While ETH appears undervalued relative to BTC, its standalone technicals remain weak. The report concludes that for ETH bulls, the immediate priority is not valuation arguments but reclaiming technical strength and beginning to outperform BTC again.

bitcoinist19 хв тому

ETH/BTC Ratio Falls Back To Early-2023 Levels As Traders Debate Ethereum Value

bitcoinist19 хв тому

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

A well-known and highly profitable Ethereum MEV Bot, Jaredfromsubway.eth, suffered a sophisticated on-chain attack this Saturday, losing over $7.5 million. Analysis by Blockaid and others reveals this was not a conventional phishing or smart contract exploit, but a targeted "counter-MEV honeypot attack." The attacker meticulously laid a trap over several weeks, deploying 66 fake token contracts and liquidity pools disguised as major assets like WETH and USDC. These pools created the illusion of arbitrage opportunities. The MEV Bot's automated system detected these signals, executed trades, and in the process, granted approval permissions to attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were not revoked, creating a persistent vulnerability. The attacker then exploited this in a single transaction, draining the bot's ETH, USDC, and USDT holdings. Jaredfromsubway.eth is notorious as one of Ethereum's most active and profitable MEV Bots, primarily known for executing "sandwich attacks" to profit from transaction slippage. Estimates suggest it has earned tens of millions in MEV revenue. The incident highlights escalating crypto security threats, demonstrating that even top-tier automated "predators" are vulnerable to novel, logic-based attacks designed to exploit their own operational rules. Following the hack, an unverified X account impersonating Jaredfromsubway.eth emerged, falsely offering a bounty for the return of funds, prompting developer warnings for users to stay vigilant.

marsbit1 год тому

Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

The prominent Ethereum MEV bot address Jaredfromsubway.eth suffered a targeted on-chain attack, losing over $7.5 million. The incident was identified as a "counter-MEV honeypot attack," where the attacker deployed numerous fake token contracts and liquidity pools over several weeks, mimicking mainstream assets like WETH and USDC to create seemingly profitable arbitrage opportunities. The MEV bot, designed to automatically detect and execute such trades, interacted with the malicious setup. During the process, it granted approvals to attacker-controlled contracts, which were not promptly revoked. The attacker later exploited these persistent permissions in a single transaction, draining the bot's holdings of ETH, USDC, and USDT. Jaredfromsubway.eth is known as one of Ethereum's most active and profitable MEV bots, primarily executing "sandwich attacks" to extract value from user transactions. Its operations have been linked to a majority of such attacks on the network. This event highlights the evolving security threats in crypto, demonstrating that even sophisticated, rule-exploiting systems can become targets of carefully designed behavioral traps. Following the theft, an impersonator account on X falsely claimed to offer a bounty for the return of the funds, prompting warnings from developers.

Odaily星球日报1 год тому

Hunter Becomes the Hunted: The Most Profitable MEV Bot Gets Hacked

Odaily星球日报1 год тому

The Reality of Payments in Latin America Is Not What You Think

The payment landscape in Latin America is undergoing a fundamental shift, driven by on-the-ground realities that challenge common perceptions. Based on over 500 hours of field research across the region, key insights emerge. Firstly, QR code payments, like Brazil's Pix, are becoming the dominant payment method in most emerging markets, overtaking cards. However, these domestic instant payment systems lack international interoperability, creating a significant gap for cross-border users. Secondly, the narrative around crypto cards is often misunderstood; their primary volume comes from high-net-worth professionals using them for salary conversions (e.g., USDT to local currency via Pix), not retail micro-payments. Competition in payments is shifting from customer acquisition to controlling the settlement layer, leading fintechs to acquire banking licenses for efficiency. Thirdly, treating "Latin America" as a single market is a mistake. Countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico have distinct economic realities, user segments, and regulatory approaches. Brazil alone has at least five distinct user segments with different financial flows. Overlooked markets like Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador (the "forgotten five") offer high remittance volumes with lower competitive density. Finally, regulation in Latin America is often ahead of the US, with clearer frameworks for digital assets and a pragmatic approach from regulators focused on safety rather than obstruction. The margin on stablecoin forex is rapidly compressing toward zero, meaning future winners will be those building value-added services on top of the infrastructure, not just the cheapest exchange.

marsbit1 год тому

The Reality of Payments in Latin America Is Not What You Think

marsbit1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот

Ф'ючерси