SignalPlus宏观研报(20231109)：美股八连涨，BTC期货未平仓量创新高

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2023-11-09Востаннє оновлено о 2023-11-09

Анотація

得益于收盘时的强劲反弹，美国股市实现连续八天上涨，美债部分，由于拍卖情况良好，10年期收益率跌至9月以来的最低水平。加密货币方面，HSBC宣布与Metaco合作，将于2024年为代币化证券提供机构托管解决方案。

市场度过相对平静的一天，得益于收盘时的强劲反弹，美国股市实现连续八天上涨，美债部分，由于拍卖情况良好， 10 年期收益率跌至 9 月以来的最低水平，其他宏观资产也在持续的风险偏好走势中同步走强。

还记得第一季令 Credit Suisse 陷入困境的 AT1 债券吗？当时市场认为对该债券的购买兴趣会长时间暂停，不过事实证明市场终究是健忘的，UBS 的 2 年期 AT 1 发行获得了 10 倍的超额认购兴趣， 35 亿美元的规模吸引了 360 亿美元的出价， AT1 指数也收复了 3 月份的大部分损失，不过投资者对于在 Credit Suisse 破产期间浮现的触发条款纠纷的担忧仍在，指数还未能恢复至 3 月之前的水平。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231109)：美股八连涨，BTC期货未平仓量创新高

其他正常化的国家包括日本，日本央行的 10 月会议纪要传达了极其明确的信息，预计今年不会出现重大政策变化，这与行长 Ueda 近期的言论相呼应，至少在 2024 第二季度前没有打算要收紧政策，日本央行希望在 2024 年看到薪资通胀赶上 CPI 的上涨，然后才会考虑政策的调整，因此，日圆兑大多数主要货币可能会继续处于劣势，而日本国债空头可能不得不提前开始冬眠，至少要在春季之后才有机会回归。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231109)：美股八连涨，BTC期货未平仓量创新高

中国方面，随著经济增长持续放缓，物价回到通货紧缩区域，可能会给当地股市造成压力，对于中国相关股票来说，今年又是艰难的一年，疫情后重新开放带来的提振效应已经消退，恒生指数和上证指数以美元计今年已经下跌了约 12% ，而其他已开发市场的指数涨幅则普遍为 + 10-30% ，包括日经指数在日圆大幅贬值的情况下也上涨了近 10% 。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231109)：美股八连涨，BTC期货未平仓量创新高

另一方面，美国股市技术面看起来仍非常正向，algo 和 CTA 基金可能会从当前水平开始追涨，目前市场处于 long SPX-gamma 状态，因此我们预计至少在 11 月中旬 OPEX 日之前，市场走势将保持平稳，尽管如此，美股指数仍有向上突破的可能，因此就算过去两周已经出现显著反弹，做空仍要小心谨慎。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231109)：美股八连涨，BTC期货未平仓量创新高

在加密货币方面，宏观情绪也在持续改善，HSBC 宣布与 Metaco 合作，将于 2024 年为代币化证券提供机构托管解决方案，这是该银行继近期推出代币化黄金后再次发布相关服务，加入 JPM 和 Euroclear 等机构的行列，为各自的结算以及数字资产相关变革做出努力。

另外，《华尔街日报》的报导称，在联系了 70 多个来自各方的潜在竞标者后，目前可能寻求购买并重启 FTX 2.0 的买家主要有三个，包括一个由纽约证券交易所前主席所运营的公司。而随著 BTC ETF 核准的预期开始升温，CME 上的 BTC 期货未平仓量创下历史新高，不同交易所的 BTC 期货未平仓量也创近两年新高。

DeFi 代币在过去一个月上涨了 70% ，BTC 也守住了价格涨幅，加上主流兴趣的叙事持续解冻，市场终于回来了吗？让我们继续期待吧…

SignalPlus宏观研报(20231109)：美股八连涨，BTC期货未平仓量创新高

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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