Will January 15 end crypto’s regulatory gray zone in the U.S.?

For months, the U.S. crypto industry has watched from the sidelines as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) sat in legislative limbo.

But the wait is nearly over.

The Senate Banking Committee has officially set the 15th of January for a high-stakes markup session that could finally resolve the decade-long “turf war” between the SEC and the CFTC.

After the bill passed the House with bipartisan support, the Senate version, backed strongly by Chairmen Tim Scott and John Boozman, aims to provide the crypto industry with the clear rulebook it has been seeking.

If it succeeds, it won’t just regulate crypto; it will mark the moment digital assets move out of the “gray zone” and into a solid legal framework.

But getting to a “yes” won’t be easy.

The three hurdles

Over the Christmas break, lawmakers worked to close the partisan gaps that have stalled the CLARITY Act for months.

But three major issues still slow progress.

Starting with lawmakers being unable to agree on how to regulate DeFi without harming developers, then it’s the classification of tokens between the SEC and CFTC.

Finally, whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer rewards, a point that Banking Committee Democrats strongly oppose.

Republicans could technically push the bill through the committee on their own, but insiders warn that a party-line vote would doom it on the Senate floor.

That said, the bill requires 60 votes for cloture, so it cannot advance without bipartisan support.

Without that buy-in, the CLARITY Act will arrive in the broader chamber dead on arrival.

Optimism in the prediction market

Data from prediction platform Kalshi showed a 69% chance at the press time that the CLARITY Act will become law before May, with a notable 42% of traders betting on a breakthrough as early as April.

This is a stark recovery from the skepticism seen last November.

On Polymarket, odds for the bill’s passage jumped from a bleak 15% to 35% following year-end updates, suggesting that the industry’s legislative “winter” is finally thawing.

Midterm shadow and the shutdown hangover

However, the path to the President’s desk remains littered with obstacles.

With the 2026 midterm elections on the horizon, the window for bipartisan cooperation is narrowing.

History showed that once campaign season begins, bipartisan cooperation usually breaks down and negotiations stall.

If the Banking Committee doesn’t reach an agreement by early spring, the CLARITY Act could be pushed into 2027. And that could leave the crypto industry stuck in regulatory uncertainty for another year.

For now, all attention is on the Senate Banking Committee.

Final Thoughts

• The Senate now holds the entire industry’s trajectory in its hands, as the outcome will determine whether crypto gains a stable regulatory foundation or returns to limbo.
• Kalshi and Polymarket odds suggest insiders believe Congress is closer to clarity than ever, even as public commentary remains cautious.