Written by: Trend Research

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30% to close at 53,577.40 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.32% to 7,677.28 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.66% to 26,151.30 points. The VIX index fell 1.77% to 16.13. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.625%, providing a valuation repair window for technology stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.44%, with NVIDIA ending its seven-day losing streak. Oil prices fell sharply for the second consecutive day as Iran and Oman announced plans to establish a safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly touched $80,000, and gold hit a three-month high. NVIDIA's earnings report is scheduled for release after the market closes on Wednesday.
Declining Long-Term Interest Rates Open a Window for Valuation Repair
The underlying theme of Tuesday's market was "continued decline in interest rates." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 7.13 basis points to 4.625%, the 2-year yield fell 6.39 basis points to 4.170%, and the 30-year yield fell 6.05 basis points to 5.164%. Interest rates continued their decline from Monday's 4.70%, dropping further to 4.625%.
The effects of Secretary Besant's policy of using nearly a trillion dollars from the TGA account to repurchase long-term bonds continued to take effect on Tuesday. The decline in long-term interest rates opened a valuation repair window for high-valuation technology stocks. With the lower discount rate for future cash flows, growth stocks saw a temporary easing of valuation pressure. The Nasdaq rose 0.66%, ending its previous streak of underperformance.
However, whether this logic can persist depends on whether long-term rates can stabilize below 4.60% and whether NVIDIA's earnings report on Wednesday can provide sufficiently strong guidance to support valuations.
Signs of Geopolitical Easing Emerge, Oil Prices Plunge for Second Day
Iran and Oman issued a joint statement outlining plans to establish a mutually agreed-upon safe maritime passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman's Foreign Minister stated that the two countries are expected to soon announce specific arrangements regarding a temporary navigation route for the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of secure navigation through the strait.
This marks the first clear signal of easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz since the escalation. Although the specific arrangements for the passage have not yet been finalized, the joint statement itself signifies that Iran, at least publicly, is signaling a willingness to negotiate.
Oil prices fell sharply for the second consecutive day. WTI crude oil futures fell 2.4% to $85.01 per barrel on Tuesday. The retreat of geopolitical risk premiums was the main driver behind the decline in oil prices, coupled with signals of a U.S. shift from military strikes to sanctions against Iran, jointly compressing the risk premium on crude oil.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio informed his foreign counterparts that the United States "currently" does not anticipate launching new strikes against Iran, further confirming the de-escalation direction of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Storage and Optical Communications Rebound Across the Board, NVIDIA Ends 7-Day Losing Streak
Chip stocks were the main force behind Tuesday's rebound. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.44%, ending its previous consecutive declines.
The storage and optical communications sectors rebounded across the board. AMD rose 4.91%, Marvell Technology rose 4.84%, and Micron Technology rose 2.48%. Storage chip stocks, which had been under pressure recently, collectively warmed up on Tuesday, with SanDisk, Western Digital, and others posting gains to varying degrees.
NVIDIA closed up 2.19% at $213.05, ending a seven-day losing streak. Previous market concerns over NVIDIA's earnings report, the unfolding risks in AI financing, and rising long-term interest rates had collectively pressured the stock price. Tuesday's decline in interest rates provided the trigger for valuation repair.
The "Magnificent Seven" showed mixed performance on Tuesday. Meta rose 1.66%, Amazon rose 1.33%, Microsoft rose 0.84%, Google (Alphabet) rose 0.83%, and Apple rose 0.32%; NVIDIA rose 2.19%; Tesla fell 3.83%, being the only component of the seven to decline. Divergence within the Magnificent Seven continues, with capital remaining highly selective within the technology sector.
Bitcoin Briefly Tops $80,000, Gold Also Strengthens
Cryptocurrency assets continued their strength. Bitcoin briefly touched $80,000 during the session, the first time since May, with monthly gains exceeding 27%. Gold also strengthened in tandem, with spot gold prices rising as much as 1.7% intraday, breaking above $4,680. The world's largest gold ETF attracted a single-day inflow of $1.3 billion.
The driving logic behind the synchronous rise of Bitcoin and gold remained consistent with Monday: funds are trading both expectations for improved liquidity and concerns over U.S. dollar credibility against the backdrop of falling long-term interest rates.
Tonight's Focus: NVIDIA Earnings Report
NVIDIA will release its earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. Following the end of its seven-day losing streak, the market will focus on Blackwell shipments, data center revenue guidance, and signals regarding AI capital expenditures. Any flaw in guidance could trigger a chain reaction within the AI hardware supply chain.





