The Most Dangerous Move: Why the War Becomes Harder to End After Blocking the Strait of Hormuz?
In a strategic shift following failed US-Iran negotiations, former President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately, targeting all vessels from Iranian ports. This move, described as tactically "smart," seizes control of the critical chokepoint from Iran—which had weaponized it as a lucrative toll route—and resets narrative主动权 to the US. However, the blockade is unlikely to force Iran into concessions due to its resilient economy, proxy networks, near-nuclear capabilities, and support from China, which relies on Iranian oil. Instead, it risks escalating conflict, potentially triggering retaliatory actions in the Red Sea, attacks on Gulf infrastructure, or nuclear advancement. The blockade also undermines decades of US-led maritime order, as Washington weaponizes a global trade artery it once protected. Market scenarios range from prolonged stalemate (50% probability, oil at $95-120) to severe escalation (25%, oil above $150), with asymmetric tail risks favoring bullish positions on oil and gold. The action may prolong war, reduce diplomatic space, and alter global risk pricing, with outcomes hinging on Iranian responses, Chinese countermeasures, and enforcement loopholes.
marsbit04/13 06:57
