# Volatility İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Volatility" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

"There is no panic in the market." What will happen to Bitcoin this week

"Bitcoin has lost about 2% over the past week, trading around $63.5k, largely stuck within a $62k-$65k range. Experts note that while the macroeconomic environment has softened slightly, removing pressure for aggressive Fed tightening, this alone is insufficient to push prices higher. The key sentiment indicator remains capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw a net outflow of about $389 million last week. Other headwinds include sustained selling by corporate holder MicroStrategy (which has paused but not resumed buying) and a lack of US regulatory progress. Altcoins also performed weakly, with the market remaining highly selective. For Bitcoin, key support is seen at $61k-$62k, while a sustained move above $66k-$67k is needed to shift the momentum. In the near term, the primary scenario is a continuation of sideways movement with high volatility within a $60k-$66k range. A break above $64k-$65k could trigger a test of $67k, but a move toward $68k-$70k would require consistent ETF inflows, a calm macro backdrop, and dovish Fed signals. A failure to hold above $62k could see a quick test of $60k, with a sharp external deterioration potentially pushing prices to $58k-$59k, though this is currently viewed as a risk rather than the base case. Overall, there is no market panic, but also no clear catalysts for a sustained rally."

cryptonews.ru5 dk önce

"There is no panic in the market." What will happen to Bitcoin this week

cryptonews.ru5 dk önce

The AI Boom Faces a Leverage Problem After a Fund with 67% AI Investments Crashes

Situational Awareness AI, a hedge fund founded by a former OpenAI researcher and led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, lost approximately 67% of its value in July 2026. The fund, which had generated a 439% return using roughly 4x leverage on concentrated bets in AI infrastructure and chip stocks, faced margin calls from major brokers as its positions fell 35-47%. Unable to meet the calls, the fund was forced to liquidate its entire public stock portfolio. The collapse highlights the risks of excessive leverage in volatile tech sectors, even when underlying investment theses—like strong demand for AI memory chips from companies like Micron—prove correct. Notably, the fund continues operating, having recently invested $400 million in a chip manufacturing startup. Global regulators, including the Bank of England, had warned of rising leverage in stock markets, particularly around highly valued AI companies, drawing parallels to past blow-ups like Archegos. While AI investment momentum remains strong, with trillions projected for infrastructure, the incident raises questions about how markets will manage risk. Institutional investors may shift toward longer-term, less leveraged structures, as seen in record fundraising for real assets like data centers in 2025. The key uncertainty is whether patient capital or highly leveraged holders will dominate during the next market downturn.

cryptonews.ru8 dk önce

The AI Boom Faces a Leverage Problem After a Fund with 67% AI Investments Crashes

cryptonews.ru8 dk önce

The Calm Before the Storm in the Bitcoin World: Two Analytics Firms Warn and Report on Critical Levels!

Two major crypto analysis firms have issued warnings about Bitcoin's current state, describing it as a period of calm before a potential storm. While Bitcoin has traded sideways between $60,000 and $65,000 for some time, both companies highlight critical price levels that could determine its next major move. Singapore-based QCP Capital notes that despite recent pressure, including geopolitical risks, high oil prices, and market uncertainty, BTC has held within its recent range, with $62,500-$63,000 forming a key lower boundary. The firm points out that Ethereum trading around $1,900 further signals low volatility and a lack of bullish sentiment. QCP states the market outlook lacks clear direction and is now focused on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including the FOMC minutes, PCE inflation figures, the Jackson Hole symposium, and the next Fed meeting, which will be pivotal for BTC's breakout from this range. German analysis firm Makrovision Research observes that Bitcoin has been consolidating for weeks within a narrowing range, with resistance at $65,500 and support between $61,000-$62,000. They warn that as price compresses closer to these critical levels, a decisive breakout is imminent. A break above $65,500 could open a path toward $71,500, while a drop below $61,000 could trigger a test of new lows. The firm notes a significant drop in volatility, signaling that a sharp and significant price movement in either direction is approaching soon. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru1 saat önce

The Calm Before the Storm in the Bitcoin World: Two Analytics Firms Warn and Report on Critical Levels!

cryptonews.ru1 saat önce

Bitcoin Trading Sideways Around $63,500 Points to Upside and Downside Movement

Bitcoin has been consolidating around $63,500 for several days, unable to break above the $64,000 resistance while holding above the $60,000 support. According to Yusuf Fahro from ARP Digital, capital flows have shifted. U.S. spot ETFs saw their strongest inflows since May, attracting over 14,000 BTC in early May, with a net inflow of approximately 11,000 BTC in Q3. This contrasts with the institutional selling that dominated Q2. Market conditions show spot volumes at two-year lows, perpetual volumes at three-year lows, and volatility near multi-year lows. Fahro interprets Bitcoin's six-month stagnation between $60,000 and $80,000 as summer apathy. However, blockchain data is beginning to show signs of a potential bottom forming as sentiment shifts from panic to caution. Significant risk remains in both directions. Bitcoin is trapped in a tight range below $64,000 and above $62,000, with high leverage exacerbating the situation. Open interest for perpetual positions has stayed above 300,000 BTC, above average levels, while trading volumes have plummeted, making the market vulnerable to sharp liquidation-driven moves. The current HCN AI Analyst forecast for BTC at $63,338 is neutral. The base scenario (47% probability) targets $62,249 (-1.70%). The bearish scenario (32%) targets $60,982 (-3.70%), while the bullish scenario (21%) targets $64,098 (+1.20%). The weighted expectation aligns with the base scenario at approximately -1.7%, with downside risk being three times larger in amplitude and 1.5 times more likely than upside potential. Weak technical analysis and momentum readings are being offset only by liquidity inflows. The key practical levels for the week are a break above $64,098 to flip momentum or a break below $62,249 opening the path to $60,982.

cryptonews.ru4 saat önce

Bitcoin Trading Sideways Around $63,500 Points to Upside and Downside Movement

cryptonews.ru4 saat önce

Analyst States Bitcoin Remains Within $61-68k Range

An analyst stated that Bitcoin is likely to remain within a trading range of $61,000 to $68,000. According to Kirill Komalenkov, director of strategic communications at Bitbanker, Bitcoin continues to trade sideways amidst declining market volatility. He attributes its current stability to high market liquidity, with volatility near three-year lows. Komalenkov warned that sustained low activity carries risks of a price decline, with potential tests of support at $62,300 and $61,600. He suggested that major market players might use the current situation to accumulate liquidity, meaning any initial breakout from the range could be a false move. The analyst expects this sideways movement to persist until the latter part of August. Key factors for determining future market direction include fund flows into Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and trader activity. However, Komalenkov noted a potential negative scenario for the second half of August, where heightened geopolitical tensions or hawkish rhetoric from US monetary authorities could trigger a new decline. In such a case, Bitcoin could fall to a range of $45,000–$50,000 by early autumn, which might form a new base for a potential market recovery later in the season. Separately, a Russian deputy finance minister recently announced that non-qualified investors in Russia will soon be allowed to legally purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and popular stablecoins, with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary.

cryptonews.ru6 saat önce

Analyst States Bitcoin Remains Within $61-68k Range

cryptonews.ru6 saat önce

Where Will Bitcoin Be in 5 Years?

Bitcoin's price has risen only about 40% over the past five years, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 74% gain and disappointing many investors. While some factors could support growth in the next five years, significant uncertainty remains. Positive catalysts include potential increased demand during economic recessions, as seen in the 2023 regional banking crisis when Bitcoin spiked as a perceived safe haven. Its limited supply of 21 million coins also attracts investors viewing it as a digital alternative to gold. Furthermore, broader institutional adoption, signaled by the rapid asset growth of new Bitcoin ETFs, could drive prices higher. Some analysts, like Morgan Stanley's head of digital asset strategy, even speculate on long-term prices reaching $1 million. However, a major headwind is the rise of AI stocks. Investors seeking high, rapid returns now have profitable alternatives in fast-growing semiconductor and AI companies with real revenue and earnings, such as Micron Technology's 1200% surge over three years. This competition from tangible, high-performing equities may dampen Bitcoin's price appreciation as long as the AI investment boom continues. Overall, while Bitcoin has potential catalysts, its trajectory over the next five years is uncertain and may be overshadowed by the stronger performance and fundamentals of leading AI-related stocks.

cryptonews.ru6 saat önce

Where Will Bitcoin Be in 5 Years?

cryptonews.ru6 saat önce

Is the US Stock Market Rising Too Smoothly? BTIG Warns of Elevated Risk of Systematic Correction in August to October

U.S. Stocks at Risk of Systemic Pullback in August-October, Warns BTIG BTIG's chief technical market strategist warns that the market is entering the most dangerous seasonal window of midterm election years—August through October—trading at all-time highs with extremely low volatility. Historically, since 1990, the equal-weight S&P 500 (SPW) has experienced at least a 7% pullback in this period almost every midterm year, with 2006 being the lone exception. This pattern is often triggered by unforeseen external shocks. Multiple technical indicators flash warning signs. The maximum drawdown for the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) since March has not exceeded 2.25%, an unusually calm period signaling risk buildup. RSP currently trades about 11% above its 200-day moving average, a stretched level historically. Furthermore, the NYSE has recorded zero "80% downside volume days" in 2024, a record-long streak far below the annual average of 21, indicating a lack of selling pressure that may be overdue. Market complacency is evident with the CBOE put/call ratio near multi-year lows and the VIX at yearly lows, showing minimal demand for downside protection. A macroeconomic divergence adds to concerns: despite recent soft economic data, long-term Treasury yields remain near cycle highs, contradicting the equity market's optimistic pricing. BTIG suggests this is an attractive time to reduce risk or hedge broad equity exposure. For sector positioning, healthcare has historically shown resilience during midterm year pullbacks, while caution is advised on chasing energy's breakout and semiconductors are expected to continue seeking support near their 200-day average.

marsbit7 saat önce

Is the US Stock Market Rising Too Smoothly? BTIG Warns of Elevated Risk of Systematic Correction in August to October

marsbit7 saat önce

Saylor: Bitcoin Down 47%, Strategy's STRC Index Up 9% Yearly

Strategy Inc. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor highlighted the performance gap between Bitcoin and the company's digital credit securities. Over the past year, Bitcoin ($BTC) fell 47%, while Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred equity security gained 9% (including dividends). Other preferred securities—STRD, STRF, and $STRK—declined 8%, 9%, and 27%, respectively. STRC offers variable dividends (12% annualized as of August) and is designed to trade near its $100 liquidation preference. Strategy raised $7.53 billion via STRC in the year after issuance, paying $1.06 billion in total preferred dividends. The company's "Digital Credit Capital Framework" includes a $1 billion buyback program for preferred securities and allows Bitcoin sales for reserves, dividends, and buybacks. Despite STRC's positive annual return, it traded below its $100 value in recent months, hitting a low of $71.25 in June. Strategy began repurchasing STRC shares in late July at a discount. Saylor's model positions Bitcoin as the equity/capital layer, with preferred securities creating lower-volatility income instruments. However, sustaining STRC dividends depends on Bitcoin's price growth exceeding the company's break-even level. Meanwhile, Strategy's common stock (MSTR) fell roughly 75.5% year-over-year, with Q2 reporting a net loss of $8.22 billion driven by unrealized losses on digital assets.

cryptonews.ru21 saat önce

Saylor: Bitcoin Down 47%, Strategy's STRC Index Up 9% Yearly

cryptonews.ru21 saat önce

A New Metric Rainbow Pattern in Bitcoin May Signal the Price!

Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest valuation level according to the Rainbow Chart model, which is based on long-term price trends. Its volatility-adjusted Z-score has also dropped to its lowest level in the past 10 years. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. from CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin is trading within a range describable as a "fire sale price" on the Rainbow Chart. The current price indicates an extremely steep discount relative to the long-term price trajectory within this model. The Rainbow Chart measures not just Bitcoin's price drop. It compares the current price to the long-term historical trend, showing how far the market has deviated. The adjusted Z-score has fallen to -2.293, the lowest level recorded for this indicator since 2016. During the 2022 market downturn, the score was -1.979. According to the analyst, this indicator, which accounts for volatility fluctuations across different market cycles, suggests Bitcoin's current downward divergence has surpassed the level observed at the bottom of the previous bear market. However, the extremely low valuation does not definitively confirm that a final bottom has been reached. While current prospects point to a potentially attractive price range within the model, confirmation of a market direction change requires data from other indicators. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ruDün 20:11

A New Metric Rainbow Pattern in Bitcoin May Signal the Price!

cryptonews.ruDün 20:11

Explaining 'Liquidation Cascades': How $19 Billion in Cryptocurrency Vanished in One Day

This article explains how "liquidation cascades" led to a $19 billion wipeout in cryptocurrency markets in a single day. It details that most speculation occurs in perpetual futures, leveraged derivative contracts. When prices move against a trader's position, triggering a margin call and automatic sale, it can start a chain reaction. Each forced sale pushes the price down further, liquidating the next over-leveraged position like dominoes, especially when open interest is concentrated at similar price levels. The piece highlights the October 10, 2025 event, where a major geopolitical announcement triggered a massive sell-off. Over 24 hours, leveraged positions worth over $19 billion were liquidated, affecting 1.6 million traders, with long positions making up the vast majority. Total open interest on major exchanges plummeted by 43%. The phenomenon repeated in 2026, with several other "cascade" events causing billions more in liquidations. The article concludes that these cascades are not rare accidents but the market's standard mechanism for shedding excess leverage. The same conditions—high leverage, crowded positions, and clustered stop-loss levels—repeatedly set the stage for these events, with fuel accumulating again after each crash.

cryptonews.ruDün 20:06

Explaining 'Liquidation Cascades': How $19 Billion in Cryptocurrency Vanished in One Day

cryptonews.ruDün 20:06

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