# Value Investing İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Value Investing" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

The Big Short's Burry: Now is the Perfect Time to Bottom-Fish in Hong Kong Stocks

Michael Burry, the investor famous for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, recently stated on X that now is an "excellent time" to look for cheap stocks in the Hong Kong market. His bullish view is based on the expectation that the global AI chip stock frenzy will cool, leading funds to flow out of Korea, Japan, and semiconductor ETFs and into undervalued areas like Hong Kong. He has already acted by increasing his stake in JD.com. Hong Kong stocks have significantly underperformed global peers this year, with the Hang Seng Index down about 7% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling over 15%. This contrasts sharply with major gains in Korean, Japanese, and semiconductor markets. Burry sees this disparity as creating a bargain-hunting opportunity. Adding another perspective, Goldman Sachs' Asia equity capital markets head, Wang Yajun, argues that while the Hong Kong market has already entered the AI era with active related IPOs and trading, its major indices have not yet reflected this reality due to structural lag. He expects record equity fundraising this year, driven by more AI company listings. Morgan Stanley has also recently advocated buying Hong Kong stocks, citing optimistic corporate earnings prospects. However, challenges remain, including concerns over China's consumer recovery and e-commerce profitability. The key for investors is navigating the overall index pressure while identifying specific structural opportunities highlighted by these bullish narratives.

链捕手07/17 08:57

The Big Short's Burry: Now is the Perfect Time to Bottom-Fish in Hong Kong Stocks

链捕手07/17 08:57

Micron Shuts Up the Bears, Makes India's 'Buffett' Regret: Sold Too Early, Missed Out on $2 Billion

Indian value investor Mohnish Pabrai, a disciple of Warren Buffett, revealed his costly mistake of selling shares in Micron Technology too early. He initially invested in 2017, holding it for six years and building a position as large as 77% of his portfolio, based on a thesis that the memory chip industry would consolidate into a stable oligopoly of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, he sold his entire stake in September 2023, fearing oversupply after Samsung announced production expansion. Shortly after his exit, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) surged with the rise of AI, and Micron's stock price skyrocketed over 15 times in two years. Pabrai estimates this premature sale cost him roughly $20 billion in potential gains. He expressed similar regret over selling his investment in SK Hynix too soon, stating he violated his own principle of holding companies forever. Reflecting on these errors, Pabrai emphasized his core investment checklist principles: avoiding leverage, focusing on the durability of a company's competitive moat, and assessing management's character. Despite these personal trading missteps, his long-term view on the remaining memory chip leaders remains bullish, advising current holders not to sell as "the party is just getting started." He concluded by sharing his philosophical outlook, prioritizing character over wealth, and his goal to donate his entire fortune before his passing.

marsbit06/25 04:29

Micron Shuts Up the Bears, Makes India's 'Buffett' Regret: Sold Too Early, Missed Out on $2 Billion

marsbit06/25 04:29

Buffett and VC, One Must Lose

The article examines the perceived investment conflict between Warren Buffett's value-oriented approach and the current aggressive, tech-focused venture capital (VC) landscape, particularly in AI. It notes that while direct public debate is limited, underlying tensions exist as Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds record cash, signaling caution, while VCs pour unprecedented capital into tech. The piece revisits two historical confrontations: the 2000 dot-com bubble, where Buffett warned against speculative tech investments despite market euphoria, and his 2007-2017 bet against hedge funds, which he won by advocating low-cost index funds. In both cases, Buffett opposed investing based on hype, excessive fees, or complexity rather than concrete business value. The core argument is that Buffett does not oppose innovation or VC itself but critiques investment decisions detached from fundamentals—such as ignoring profitability, over-relying on narratives like “this time is different,” or obscuring valuation with complex structures. For the current AI boom, he would likely question sustainable business models and cash flows amid high capital costs. The conclusion reiterates Buffett's “Mr. Market” parable: investors should use market volatility to their advantage, not be guided by it, emphasizing that disciplined valuation, not sentiment, should drive decisions.

marsbit06/18 03:10

Buffett and VC, One Must Lose

marsbit06/18 03:10

What Did Duan Yongping Buy in 2026? From a Small Position in Circle to Heavy Allocations in AI, a Breakdown of the Latest Holdings and New Market Signals

Summary: Duan Yongping's investment portfolio adjustments in Q1 2026, revealed via the H&H International Investment 13F filing, signal strategic shifts towards AI, consumer tech, and emerging digital finance. The total portfolio value reached approximately $20 billion, with high concentration in the top 10 holdings. Key new U.S. positions include a significant initial stake in Tesla (3.41 million shares) and smaller, exploratory positions in AI-focused companies like Palantir, Snowflake, and Synopsys. Notably, a small, new position in Circle (200k shares) marks his first entry into the crypto-related space, specifically targeting compliant stablecoin infrastructure. Major additions were made to existing core holdings: Nvidia (position nearly doubled), Pinduoduo, and Berkshire Hathaway. Apple remained the largest holding, though slightly reduced. Positions in Alibaba, ASML, and CoreWeave were liquidated. In the Hong Kong market, a pivotal move was the complete replacement of China Shenhua Energy with a position in Pop Mart. This highlights a strategic expansion into the Z-generation IP and emotional consumption sector, reflecting confidence in the founder and the brand's long-term potential. Overall, the adjustments demonstrate Duan's ongoing investment philosophy: focusing on "good businesses" with strong leadership, while cautiously expanding his circle of competence into high-growth areas like AI and new consumer trends through initial small positions and portfolio rebalancing.

marsbit05/27 13:37

What Did Duan Yongping Buy in 2026? From a Small Position in Circle to Heavy Allocations in AI, a Breakdown of the Latest Holdings and New Market Signals

marsbit05/27 13:37

The "Big Short" Prototype Makes a Major Bet: Shorting Nvidia, Going Long on Software Stocks 'Scared Away' by AI

'The Big Short' Legend Michael Burry Doubles Down on AI Bet: Shorts Nvidia, Buys Beaten-Down Software Stocks As the Nasdaq hits record highs and Nvidia's market cap nears $5.3 trillion, Michael Burry—famed for his 2008 subprime mortgage bet—is making a major contrarian move. He is significantly expanding his bearish wagers against the AI frenzy while buying traditional software stocks he believes have been unfairly punished. Burry's latest portfolio adjustments, revealed in his Substack column, include maintaining and increasing put options on Nvidia and Palantir. He has also initiated new short positions on Palantir and expanded bearish bets on the semiconductor ETF (SOXX), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), and Oracle. Simultaneously, he is buying shares of software companies like Adobe, Autodesk, Salesforce, and Veeva Systems. He argues these stocks have been sold off due to "AI disruption" fears and technical selling pressure from private credit funds, not deteriorating fundamentals. Their valuations have fallen to multi-year lows. This creates a complete hedge: short the perceived "AI winners" and long the oversold "AI losers." Burry believes the current AI infrastructure spending boom mirrors the late-1990s internet bubble, with inflated demand projections and questionable accounting practices by large cloud customers extending GPU depreciation schedules. While his Palantir short is currently profitable, his Nvidia put options are deeply underwater as the stock trades near all-time highs. Burry remains steadfast, comparing Nvidia to Cisco during the dot-com era. He anticipates a broad repricing of the AI bubble, where overvalued beneficiaries fall and unfairly battered companies rebound.

marsbit05/10 03:06

The "Big Short" Prototype Makes a Major Bet: Shorting Nvidia, Going Long on Software Stocks 'Scared Away' by AI

marsbit05/10 03:06

Distinguishing Types of Drawdowns Is More Important Than Blindly Buying the Dip

Distinguishing between types of drawdowns is more important than blindly buying the dip. Academic finance categorizes risk into systemic (market-wide, unavoidable) and idiosyncratic (company-specific). Similarly, drawdowns can be market-driven (systemic, like the 2008 crisis) or company-specific (idiosyncratic, like the recent AI-driven selloff in software stocks). Using FactSet (FDS) as an example, the article illustrates that a systemic drawdown, such as in 2008/09, was a test of the market's durability, not FactSet's economic moat. In these cases, investors can leverage a behavioral advantage—patience and a long-term view—as history shows markets tend to recover. Conversely, the current 2025/26 drawdown in software stocks is largely idiosyncratic, driven by specific fears that AI could disrupt industry pricing power and erode moats. To capitalize on such a drawdown, an investor needs an analytical advantage: a more accurate vision of the company's future a decade from now than the market's pessimistic price implies. This requires understanding why informed sellers are wrong, a fine line between conviction and arrogance. The key takeaway is not to apply a blunt behavioral solution (like simply buying the dip) to a problem that requires nuanced, fundamental analysis.

marsbit02/15 10:18

Distinguishing Types of Drawdowns Is More Important Than Blindly Buying the Dip

marsbit02/15 10:18

Before Buying the Dip, Understand the Two Types of Market Drawdowns

The article distinguishes between two types of stock drawdowns: systemic (market-driven) and idiosyncratic (company-specific). Systemic drawdowns, like the 2008 financial crisis, affect the entire market and can be navigated with behavioral advantages such as patience, as markets tend to recover. Idiosyncratic drawdowns, such as the recent AI-driven sell-off in software stocks, require analytical advantages—investors must accurately assess whether a company’s long-term prospects remain intact despite market pessimism. Using FactSet as an example, the author emphasizes that investors must differentiate between temporary panic and fundamental erosion of a company’s competitive moat. Relying solely on behavioral strategies for idiosyncratic risks is inadequate; deep analysis is essential to avoid mistaking arrogance for conviction.

比推02/13 12:59

Before Buying the Dip, Understand the Two Types of Market Drawdowns

比推02/13 12:59

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