# Treasury Yield İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Treasury Yield" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

After the Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Comments from Kevin Walsh, Experts Gathered and Shared Their Latest Insights!

Following the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady, experts highlight a potential shift towards more independent policymaking within the FOMC, as three members dissented. Market strategists note the slight decline in bond yields and a weaker dollar post-announcement, but caution that a rate hike in September remains possible. Experts like Mark Hackett point to the three dissenting votes as a sign of growing committee independence. While markets initially rallied in relief, the final direction hinges on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming press conference. Analysts, including Audrey Childs-Freeman, interpret the dissent as the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. They suggest the Fed will continue monitoring data, with a summer scenario of high bond yields supporting the dollar still in play. Chris Anstey emphasizes that markets will closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield during Warsh's conference. A continued rise could signal investor fears that the Fed is not acting aggressively enough on inflation, posing a challenge for the Chair. The long-term yield is also viewed as critical for mortgages and economic management. Diane Swonk of KPMG argues a September rate hike is likely, stating that an increase now would have been more appropriate given nearly five years of high inflation. She warns that prolonged high prices risk becoming embedded in the economic system. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru07/29 20:51

After the Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Comments from Kevin Walsh, Experts Gathered and Shared Their Latest Insights!

cryptonews.ru07/29 20:51

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

The title "Building the Plank Road Openly While Secretly Crossing at Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September 'Rate Cut'?" suggests Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish stance may be a deliberate smokescreen. Academy Securities analyst Peter Tchir argues in a report that markets, currently pricing a 75% chance of a September hike, are missing a potential path to a September rate cut that Walsh himself might be quietly preparing. Tchir posits that Walsh's hawkish rhetoric aims to suppress long-term yield risks (with the 10-year Treasury yield falling recently) while creating room for a narrative shift based on upcoming data. The potential political endgame, according to this view, could be rate cuts in September and October, ahead of the midterm elections. This hinges on a political logic where the Trump administration's preference for lower rates remains unchanged. A core part of Tchir's argument involves redefining inflation metrics. He contends the Fed under Walsh may deprioritize the PCE index, criticizing its lagging components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). Instead, he points to alternative, more real-time indicators like the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRR) and the Truflation daily index, which shows core inflation around 1.45%. He suggests the Fed could shift its data narrative to justify policy easing. Furthermore, Tchir downplays AI-driven inflation fears. He argues that consumer price sensitivity, evidenced by negative market reactions to price hikes (e.g., Apple), contradicts persistent inflation narratives. He also separates AI/data center spending—which he sees as relatively rate-insensitive—from broader consumer affordability issues, implying rate hikes are misdirected. Based on this analysis, Tchir sees a re-pricing of rate cut expectations as likely, creating opportunities in short-duration Treasuries. He maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view on the long end of the yield curve. For equities, he recommends a significant overweight in energy (especially global nuclear assets) and, within defense/security themes, an overweight in biotech/pharma versus an underweight in semiconductors, expressing caution on AI/data center valuations.

marsbit06/29 04:42

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

marsbit06/29 04:42

30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5% Again: The Era of 'Everything Is Cheap' Is Over

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has again surpassed 5%, signaling a fundamental shift as markets begin to accept that high interest rates are here to stay. This reflects the simultaneous breakdown of three pillars that underpinned half a century of low inflation and low rates: cheap capital, cheap labor, and cheap energy. Global capital flows are shifting, energy security is strained, and labor costs are rising due to shortages and unionization, though partly offset by AI's impact. Long-term pressures like soaring government debt, geopolitical friction, and populism are also pushing up long-term borrowing costs. The role of AI remains the biggest uncertainty—it could boost productivity and lower debt or become a new source of inflation if it merely automates jobs while consuming vast resources. The core challenge for investors is adapting their models and expectations, calibrated during decades of cheap money, to this new, more persistent high-rate environment.

marsbit06/01 03:34

30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5% Again: The Era of 'Everything Is Cheap' Is Over

marsbit06/01 03:34

Bitcoin Surges Then Retreats, CLARITY Act Rally Quickly Fizzles Out: What's Next to Watch?

Bitcoin's price surge following the U.S. Senate Banking Committee's advancement of the CLARITY Act was short-lived, with gains in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Bitcoin itself quickly erasing. The primary driver was a dominating macro environment, where rising 10-year Treasury yields (hitting a one-year high of 4.59%) and tightening financial conditions overshadowed the regulatory catalyst. This demonstrates that for sustained positive price action, legislative progress must coincide with favorable macro conditions. The article argues that if passed, the CLARITY Act could most significantly benefit "AI utility tokens"—digital assets tied to sufficiently decentralized networks with real-world use cases, such as those in decentralized computing or verifiable AI data layers. However, it cautions that many projects use "AI" as a marketing label without substantial utility. Looking ahead, key factors to monitor include: the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, ongoing political negotiations (like ethics compromises for the bill's passage), betting market odds on Polymarket for the bill's likelihood, and sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs to gauge genuine institutional conviction beyond headline-driven trading. The bill still faces a long legislative path before potentially becoming law.

marsbit05/18 09:28

Bitcoin Surges Then Retreats, CLARITY Act Rally Quickly Fizzles Out: What's Next to Watch?

marsbit05/18 09:28

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

Bitcoin has fallen below the $78,000 support level, now facing a critical test due to severe macro pressures. The price slid from above $81,000 to a low near $77,711, with the $77,700-$78,000 zone identified as the next key support. The primary headwinds are surging U.S. Treasury yields—with the 10-year approaching 4.6% and the 30-year surpassing 5.13%—and persistent inflation. April's CPI accelerated to 3.8%, while WTI oil prices climbed above $105. These factors increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin and tighten the Fed's policy space. Crucially, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously provided a buffer, saw significant net outflows on two of the past three trading days, removing buying support when it was most needed. The technical outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above $77,700. A daily close below this level could open a path toward $76,500 and then the major $75,000 support. A recovery above $80,000 is needed to break the bearish pattern, with a close above $82,000 (the 200-day moving average) required to invalidate the breakdown. Failure to hold support could shift the narrative from a crypto correction to a broader, macro-driven risk asset deleveraging.

marsbit05/18 03:37

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

marsbit05/18 03:37

Stop Focusing Only on Oil Prices, the Bond Market Is the Real Barometer

The bond market, not oil prices, has become the primary driver of global financial conditions amid the ongoing Iran war. Over the past 27 days, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged 50 basis points to 4.42%, shifting market expectations from multiple 2026 rate cuts to potential hikes. This rapid rise reflects renewed inflation fears, with 12-month expectations hitting 5.2%, while the labor market shows persistent weakness—over 1 million jobs were revised away for 2025. Historical "Policy Shift Zone" of 4.50%-4.70% for the 10-year yield is critical; breaching it likely triggers government intervention, as seen in past crises. Recent signals, including delayed strikes and peace talks," suggest such moves may be imminent. While oil remains elevated near $100/barrel, bond volatility now dictates equity pressures and policy responses. The administration’s market sensitivity implies interventions to prevent economic deterioration, likely leading to conflict de-escalation within weeks, not months. Despite short-term turbulence, the AI revolution continues accelerating. Monitor bonds—they’re setting the risk boundary.

marsbit03/27 06:55

Stop Focusing Only on Oil Prices, the Bond Market Is the Real Barometer

marsbit03/27 06:55

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