# Trading Volume İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Trading Volume" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

On-Chain Scene on Opening Day: $20 Billion Already Staked, How Do On-Chain Contracts Know Who Wins?

On the opening day of the 2026 World Cup, over $2 billion had already been wagered on just the "tournament winner" contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. This article explores how these blockchain-based prediction markets actually function once the games begin. It breaks down the massive volume and explains how single-game and tournament-long contracts are priced, with values moving between 1-99 cents to reflect implied probabilities. A key mechanism highlighted is "elimination zeroing," where a team's "champion yes" contract immediately settles to zero once they are mathematically eliminated. The core technical question answered is: how does a smart contract "know" who won a real-world match? The answer lies in oracles. The article details two primary paradigms: UMA's "optimistic oracle" (used by most of Polymarket), which allows a challenge period after a proposed result, and Chainlink's multi-source data aggregation (used by FIFA partners like ADI Predictstreet), which automates settlement with minimal dispute windows. Finally, the article injects a note of caution, citing research estimating that a significant portion of historical trading volume on these platforms might be "wash trading" to inflate numbers. It concludes by contrasting the legal status of these "event contracts" under CFTC rules in the U.S. versus traditional, state-regulated sports betting. As the tournament progresses, the real-time operation of this multi-billion dollar machine—its settlements, eliminations, and underlying mechanisms—becomes a story as compelling as the football itself.

marsbit2 gün önce 03:50

On-Chain Scene on Opening Day: $20 Billion Already Staked, How Do On-Chain Contracts Know Who Wins?

marsbit2 gün önce 03:50

On-Chain Figures on the Eve of Kickoff: 1.6 Billion Traded Before the World Cup Even Begins

"On-Chain Numbers on the Eve of the World Cup: $1.6 Billion Traded Before Kick-off" Analysis of on-chain markets before the 2026 FIFA World Cup reveals significant crypto integration into football. The most striking figure is the approximately **$1.6 billion** in total trading volume on the single "World Cup Winner" contract on the Polymarket prediction market platform, accumulated before a single match was played. This represents explosive growth for a sector whose annual volume surged from ~$16B in 2024 to ~$64B in 2025. The ecosystem is maturing beyond speculation. Key developments include: 1) **Infrastructure upgrades** like Polymarket's migration to native, regulated USDC stablecoin for settlements; 2) **Reliable data oracles**, such as Chainlink, being used to resolve real-world match outcomes on-chain; and 3) **Official recognition**, with FIFA appointing its first-ever "Prediction Markets" partner. Over 100 contracts now cover everything from the outright winner to individual match results and even non-sporting risks like venue relocation. This evolution marks a fundamental shift. While crypto firms are absent from FIFA's top-tier sponsor list, the technology has deeply penetrated the tournament's financial and predictive infrastructure through regulated stablecoin settlements, decentralized oracles, and new official partnership categories. The regulatory landscape remains complex and varies by jurisdiction, but on-chain markets for the World Cup are already a multi-billion-dollar reality.

marsbit06/06 00:54

On-Chain Figures on the Eve of Kickoff: 1.6 Billion Traded Before the World Cup Even Begins

marsbit06/06 00:54

Tracking Digital Asset Markets Beyond Crypto-Native Venues

Glassnode has expanded its analytics platform to track digital asset markets beyond crypto-native venues. New data includes daily price and volume for U.S. spot ETFs and publicly-listed digital asset treasury (DAT) companies. This allows users to compare the behavior of these listed equities against underlying crypto assets, assessing which stocks act as strong proxies. ETF trading volume data provides insights into institutional participation and liquidity, helping to distinguish genuine market trends from thin, speculative moves. These new metrics offer a unified view of crypto exposure through traditional finance instruments, bridging the gap between on-chain and traditional market data.

insights.glassnode05/21 09:12

Tracking Digital Asset Markets Beyond Crypto-Native Venues

insights.glassnode05/21 09:12

Gate Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Launches New Portal to Prediction Markets

Gate Research Institute: Polymarket Growth Accelerates, Gate Expands into Prediction Markets with New Portal This analysis examines the growth of the prediction market platform Polymarket, which has evolved from an early experiment into a major event-driven trading venue. Data shows a significant, step-like increase in trading volume and active users, though growth remains heavily tied to major political, sports, and geopolitical events. Fee and revenue growth is driven by both genuine trading demand and recent changes to platform fee structures. Polymarket's market structure is highly concentrated, with over 90% of volume in these few high-profile categories. While it functions as both an information and sentiment market, its price discovery is most active during high-attention news cycles. The platform's core value lies in creating a liquid market for trading the outcome of future events, a unique niche within crypto. Gate's recent integration of Polymarket addresses different challenges. It simplifies access by allowing users to trade with exchange-held USDT, lowering friction for its existing user base. This highlights two emerging pathways for prediction markets: Polymarket's native, on-chain model versus Gate's centralized, low-friction account integration. Both paths will likely coexist, targeting different user segments. Key challenges for Polymarket include ongoing regulatory uncertainty, reliance on cyclical event-driven demand, potential oracle or settlement disputes, and achieving sustainable user retention beyond peak event periods. The platform has proven its commercial viability and ability to scale but has yet to demonstrate it can become a stable, everyday trading category independent of major news cycles.

marsbit05/09 02:07

Gate Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Launches New Portal to Prediction Markets

marsbit05/09 02:07

Trading Volume Soars 80-Fold: How Kalshi is Reshaping the Sports Prediction Market

Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market platform, has experienced explosive growth, with monthly trading volume surging 80x to $14.4 billion by March 2026. Sports markets drive this expansion, representing 68% of total activity. Analysis shows Kalshi's prices are highly efficient, with pre-game probabilities deviating only 5.5% from actual outcomes. While its peer-to-peer exchange model offers advantages over traditional sportsbooks—including nationwide availability and no betting limits—Kalshi faces challenges with higher effective fees (2.8-4.2%) and limited in-play liquidity. The platform's $22 billion valuation reflects its positioning as an exchange rather than a bookmaker, but maintaining this premium requires improving liquidity depth and managing competition from rivals like Polymarket and potential entrants from traditional sports betting.

marsbit04/19 06:26

Trading Volume Soars 80-Fold: How Kalshi is Reshaping the Sports Prediction Market

marsbit04/19 06:26

Morpho surges by 10% – Is a breakout above $2.1 on the way?

Morpho (MORPHO) has surged by 10% in the past 24 hours, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, which nearly doubled to around $58 million. This bullish momentum is supported by a 16% rise in Open Interest, indicating fresh capital entering the market and growing investor confidence. The token is currently testing a key supply zone between $1.9 and $2.1, a level that has historically led to bearish rejections. A successful breakout above $2.1 could signal further upward movement, while a rejection may result in consolidation. Despite the positive indicators, the supply zone remains a critical resistance point for Morpho's price action.

ambcrypto04/11 01:03

Morpho surges by 10% – Is a breakout above $2.1 on the way?

ambcrypto04/11 01:03

How Bitcoin ETFs Are Taking A Key Role In Price Discovery And Liquidity – Analyst

U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs, launched in January 2024, have become a major bullish driver and a structural component of the Bitcoin market, extending beyond mere investment vehicles. With cumulative net inflows of $55.96 billion and net assets of $86.22 billion—representing 6.44% of Bitcoin's market cap—these ETFs are significantly influencing liquidity and price discovery. Their daily trading volume often rivals major exchanges like Coinbase, shifting traditional price discovery mechanisms. Additionally, the ETFs' holdings of 1.3 million BTC create a structural supply lock, reducing circulating liquidity. The approval of in-kind creation/redemption and arbitrage activities by authorized sponsors help maintain price alignment with the spot market. Japanese investors, with over $12.53 trillion in household assets, could further amplify market impact if local Bitcoin ETFs are approved. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $66,889, with weekly gains of 1.14%, though trading volume has declined by 41.68%, indicating cautious sentiment. Prices remain 47% below the cycle’s all-time high of $126,100.

bitcoinist04/04 15:32

How Bitcoin ETFs Are Taking A Key Role In Price Discovery And Liquidity – Analyst

bitcoinist04/04 15:32

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

The competition between US-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified, with both companies exchanging sharp public criticisms. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, launched an ad campaign in Washington, D.C., with slogans such as "We don’t do death markets," directly targeting Polymarket’s offshore operations and its controversial contracts related to military conflicts and sensitive events. Kalshi accused Polymarket of being "irresponsible, dangerous, and non-compliant," while Polymarket responded by calling for fact-based discussions and emphasizing its commitment to market integrity. The dispute highlights fundamental differences in their regulatory approaches and comes amid growing scrutiny over insider trading and ethical concerns in the prediction market industry, which has seen combined weekly volumes nearing $6 billion.

marsbit04/02 08:52

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

marsbit04/02 08:52

SEI jumps 10% after zero-fee rollout: But this rise may not last

Sei's price surged over 10% in 24 hours following the integration of zero-fee swaps on platforms like MetaMask, Backpack, and YeiFinance, which removed gas costs and improved accessibility. Trading volume increased by 258%, indicating strong organic participation. However, SEI remains within a descending channel, facing resistance near $0.062 and $0.070. While RSI rebounded from oversold conditions, it stayed below the midline, showing limited bullish strength. Additionally, Total Value Locked (TVL) dropped 7.32% to $43.2 million, contrasting with the price increase and raising concerns about the rally's sustainability. The current structure suggests potential downside movement toward $0.048 before any stable upward continuation.

ambcrypto04/02 00:02

SEI jumps 10% after zero-fee rollout: But this rise may not last

ambcrypto04/02 00:02

CFTC warns on prediction market insider trading as volumes hit $75B in Q1

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that insider trading laws apply to prediction markets, countering the belief that such activity operates in a regulatory gray area. A senior official stated the CFTC will aggressively pursue cases involving misuse of material non-public information, emphasizing that prediction market contracts fall under existing anti-fraud provisions. The regulator also highlighted exchanges' responsibilities to maintain surveillance systems and avoid listing easily manipulated contracts. This comes as prediction market trading volume surged to $75 billion in Q1 2026, up dramatically from $330 million in Q1 2024, driven by event-based trading on political, economic, and sports outcomes. The CFTC outlined enforcement priorities including insider trading, market manipulation, and retail fraud, while also introducing a new cooperation framework for self-reporting firms.

ambcrypto04/01 15:01

CFTC warns on prediction market insider trading as volumes hit $75B in Q1

ambcrypto04/01 15:01

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