Structural Choices Amid Continued Volatility: Bitcoin's Range-Bound Game and HYPE Swing Opportunities | Exclusive Analysis
In his latest market analysis, Cody, an Odaily特邀行情分析师, reviews the recent performance of Bitcoin and introduces a new asset, HYPE, for potential trading opportunities.
Bitcoin has continued its consolidation phase, trading within the range of $65,500 to $70,000 over the past week. The overall market rhythm remains slow with no clear directional movement. The medium-term strategy maintains a 60% short position initiated at approximately $89,000, which is currently showing a profit of about 24.01%.
The analysis shifts focus to HYPE, presenting it as an asset with an independent structure during this period of slowed momentum in major cryptocurrencies. A detailed technical analysis of HYPE's daily chart is provided. It suggests a potential shift from a previous bearish structure after the price broke a long-term descending trendline. The price action from the low of $20.46 on January 21st is analyzed as a potential impulsive Wave I rise to $38.41, followed by a corrective Wave II. The key for confirming the start of a bullish Wave III is for the price to hold above the recent low of $27.73 and ultimately break above the Wave I high of $38.41. A successful short-term long trade on HYPE using 1x leverage, based on a 1-hour chart breakout and a momentum model signal, yielded a profit of approximately 4.71%.
For Bitcoin, technical indicators on the weekly chart (动量模型, 情绪模型) still suggest a bearish trend, interpreting the current price action as a potential distribution pattern. Daily charts show a weak oversold bounce is underway. The 4-hour chart analysis indicates Bitcoin is likely forming a bullish consolidation structure ("上涨中枢") between approximately $65,100 (support) and $72,300 (resistance).
The weekly outlook (Feb 23 - Mar 1) emphasizes monitoring the battle between bulls and bears around the boundaries of this 4-hour structure. The core trading principle remains selling into strength ("逢高减仓") and controlling risk. Key resistance zones are identified at $72,300-$74,500 and $79,500-$80,600. Support levels are at $65,000, $60,000-$62,500, and $57,400.
Two short-term tactical plans (A and B) are outlined for using 30% capital to short upon a rebound towards the $72,300 or $74,500 resistance areas, contingent on model signals, with a strict stop-loss above $75,500. The article concludes with essential risk management rules for position management.
Odaily星球日报02/23 08:01
