# Safe Haven İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Safe Haven" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

The Narrative of Gold's Rise is Becoming Harder to Sustain

The article argues that the narrative supporting gold's price surge is weakening, leaving only a fraction of its original justification. Historically, gold's primary drivers were its role as a safe-haven asset during crises (like the 2000 dot-com bubble and 2008 financial crisis) and as a hedge against inflation (e.g., during the Fed's QE periods). However, the author contends these core logics are now eroding. First, gold's safe-haven属性 is diminishing as its price action has recently become correlated with speculative assets like Bitcoin and US stocks, moving in sync with them on news like Trump's comments. This suggests投机属性 may be overshadowing its traditional避险 role. Second, the inflation hedge argument is weakening. The Federal Reserve's projected minimal rate cuts through 2026 suggest a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for significant USD depreciation. Similarly, the Japanese Yen's贬值 expectations are also easing. The author identifies only "0.5" reasons left for gold's rise: continued purchases by China's central bank. While China has been a consistent buyer, its purchasing speed has drastically slowed from a peak of nearly 600,000 ounces per month to a recent average of just 30,000 ounces. This minimal volume is deemed too small to significantly impact the global gold market, especially compared to London's daily clearing volume of over 18 million ounces. Furthermore, a technical divergence exists: gold prices accelerated upward in late 2024 even as China's buying slowed. The article concludes that with its避险属性 potentially exhausted, inflation expectations subdued, and China's buying influence limited, the current gold price appears to have overshot its fundamental supports. The author advises against high expectations for further sustained gains barring an extreme black-swan event.

比推03/24 04:21

The Narrative of Gold's Rise is Becoming Harder to Sustain

比推03/24 04:21

Gold Plunges for a Week, '1983 Great Sell-Off' Repeats, Middle East 'Selling Gold for Funds'?

Gold recorded its worst weekly decline in 43 years, echoing the historic 1983 sell-off. Spot gold fell for eight consecutive days, while silver dropped over 15%, with palladium and platinum also declining. The sell-off was triggered by escalating Middle East conflicts, which raised energy prices and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets now price a 50% chance of a Fed hike by October. Higher inflation expectations and rising real interest rates diminished gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Additionally, tightening dollar liquidity, reflected in widening cross-currency basis swaps, intensified pressure on gold, often liquidated first during dollar shortages. Technical indicators worsened, with RSI falling below 30, triggering stop-losses and self-reinforcing selling. Gold ETFs saw outflows for three straight weeks, losing over 60 tons. The current situation parallels the 1983 crash when OPEC nations, facing falling oil revenue, sold gold reserves to raise cash, causing a rapid price collapse. Then, as now, Middle Eastern selling pressured gold, with impacts spreading across commodities. Despite a 4% year-to-date gain, stagflation risks are rising. Goldman Sachs estimates energy price increases could reduce global growth by 0.3% and raise inflation by 0.5-0.6%. Gold's future depends on real interest rates and geopolitical developments—continued conflict may sustain pressure, while de-escalation could revive safe-haven demand.

marsbit03/21 03:08

Gold Plunges for a Week, '1983 Great Sell-Off' Repeats, Middle East 'Selling Gold for Funds'?

marsbit03/21 03:08

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