# Net Unrealized Profit/Loss İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Bitcoin’s path to $80K may hinge on THIS hidden trend

Bitcoin's potential path toward $80,000 is influenced by conflicting market signals. Data shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has recorded its longest-ever streak of consecutive negative premiums, indicating muted institutional demand or net selling from U.S. institutions. While such a trend often signals short-term weakness, it doesn't necessarily forecast a long-term bear market. Additionally, a bearish crossover occurred in Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), with its short-term average falling below the longer-term average, suggesting declining investor profitability and waning market momentum. Historically, major bear market bottoms saw the 100-day NUPL drop below zero, but this cycle it remains positive, implying either an unprecedented bottom or a further decline is needed. Currently trading around $63,148, Bitcoin has seen weekly gains but remains below its May peak. Technical indicators present a mixed picture: the MACD shows bullish momentum, while the RSI signals bearish pressure. A positive development is the return of inflows to Bitcoin ETFs after eight weeks of outflows. Analysts hold divergent views; some highlight a key liquidity zone between $48,000-$50,000 where a market bottom could form, while others maintain a more optimistic long-term outlook. Ultimately, while some bullish signs exist, a strong push from institutional investors appears crucial for Bitcoin to challenge the $80,000 level.

ambcrypto07/08 05:03

Bitcoin’s path to $80K may hinge on THIS hidden trend

ambcrypto07/08 05:03

Ethereum shows early accumulation signals – Can ETH’s demand sustain a breakout?

Ethereum is showing early signs of accumulation as it trades near $2,130, approximately 11% below its Realized Price of $2,349. This narrow gap reduces loss-driven selling, with the NUPL at -0.04 indicating mild unrealized losses rather than full capitulation. The MVRV Ratio of 0.86 suggests the average holder remains about 14% underwater, limiting panic selling and signaling a late-stage correction. A rising Taker Buy/Sell Ratio near 1.13 across exchanges points to increasing buyer aggression, reminiscent of the pre-rally conditions in April-May 2025. While short-term price action shows low conviction, the convergence of these metrics suggests accumulation is underway, with limited downside risk barring new shocks, setting the stage for a potential sustained recovery.

ambcrypto04/01 19:02

Ethereum shows early accumulation signals – Can ETH’s demand sustain a breakout?

ambcrypto04/01 19:02

Bitcoin: A structural shift is underway for BTC – Pressure builds under the surface

Bitcoin is experiencing a period of tight consolidation and muted volatility, with underlying pressure building as short-term holders (STHs) continue to realize losses and sell at a loss. This has resulted in deeply negative STH outflows and only 4.9% of the STH supply remaining in profit, creating significant price resistance. A major capitulation spike occurred in early February, with forced selling driving the price down sharply. However, large holders (whales) are not selling into this pressure. Balances for the 10,000–100,000 BTC and 100,000–1,000,000 BTC cohorts remain steady, indicating deliberate holding and absorption of the supply from stressed sellers. This behavior limits downside follow-through and prevents broader liquidation cascades. Concurrently, long-term holder (LTH) supply remains firm at around 14.8 million BTC, showing no signs of distribution. The monthly net position change has climbed to 353,000 BTC, marking the strongest accumulation since April 2025. Illiquid supply is also rising, indicating coins are moving into wallets with low spending intent. This redistribution of supply from weak hands to strong hands helps stabilize the price and increases the probability of a base formation rather than a further breakdown.

ambcrypto03/29 09:16

Bitcoin: A structural shift is underway for BTC – Pressure builds under the surface

ambcrypto03/29 09:16

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators All Failed, 3 New Indicators Point to the Bottom-Fishing Opportunity?

The article analyzes the shifting effectiveness of traditional Bitcoin bottom-buying indicators and proposes new metrics to identify potential market bottoms. Four classic indicators are discussed: - **MVRV Z-Score** (currently ~1.31) is distorted by institutional holdings, making historical "extreme negative" values unlikely. - **Ahr999 Index** has remained below 0.45 for nearly 50 days, but its long-term predictive power has diminished due to macro factors. - **SOPR Metrics** show STH-SOPR consistently below 1 (bearish), while LTH-SOPR remains between 0.75–1, indicating no full capitulation. - **Mayer Multiple** (price/200-day MA) has also stayed below 0.8 for 50 days but lacks consistent predictive strength. Three alternative indicators are suggested: 1. **CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed)**: Models a historical "iron bottom" near $45,000. 2. **NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)**: Currently at 0.2; negative values often signal market bottoms. 3. **Stablecoin Exchange Netflow**: Sustained inflows of USDT/USDC to exchanges typically precede rebounds by 2–4 weeks, but current outflows suggest no immediate bottom. The conclusion emphasizes that indicators are reference tools, not guarantees, and cautions that widespread public euphoria (e.g., mainstream adoption talks) may signal a sell opportunity rather than a buy.

Odaily星球日报03/19 13:22

4 Classic Bottom-Fishing Indicators All Failed, 3 New Indicators Point to the Bottom-Fishing Opportunity?

Odaily星球日报03/19 13:22

Ethereum Approaching Major Capitulation Zone — On-Chain Metrics Hint At Impending Shift

Following a period of underperformance, Ethereum has found some stability around the $2,000 level. However, on-chain analyst Boris warns that multiple metrics suggest the market is under significant stress and may be approaching a major capitulation phase. Key indicators signaling potential trouble include the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which is negative, indicating investors are holding unrealized losses. Furthermore, Ethereum's price is currently trading below its realized price of $2,200, meaning the average investor is at a loss. The network has also recently ended a 1,340-day streak during which most ETH tokens were in profit—a signal that often coincides with the end of a market cycle and bear market bottoms. For a market bottom to form, Boris notes the NUPL would need to move deeper into the capitulation zone. If another sell-off occurs, it could force investors to surrender their positions, creating a potential opportunity for long-term holders. At the time of writing, Ethereum's price is approximately $2,092, down over 1% in the past day.

bitcoinist03/15 12:01

Ethereum Approaching Major Capitulation Zone — On-Chain Metrics Hint At Impending Shift

bitcoinist03/15 12:01

Undervalued but structurally weak: Bitcoin’s current cycle paradox

Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, recently falling to $66k after briefly touching $70k. Analysts attribute the ongoing pressure not to recent events but to a cyclical reset beginning in October. Key on-chain metrics present a paradox: the MVRV Z-score indicates Bitcoin is deeply undervalued, reaching historic lows, while the NUPL metric remains in the "hope" zone, suggesting a true market bottom, marked by a drop below zero, has not yet occurred. Furthermore, long-term holders, though still in profit on average, face pressure. This combination of statistical undervaluation and weak market structure suggests a risk of further decline toward $60k, with the potential for a full capitulation event still months away.

ambcrypto02/28 01:01

Undervalued but structurally weak: Bitcoin’s current cycle paradox

ambcrypto02/28 01:01

6 more months of bearish pressure? THESE metrics flash warnings

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued their bearish trend, with BTC dropping 4.58% and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hitting an extreme low of 5. According to Glassnode, the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio has remained below 1 for the past three months, indicating a sustained period where investors are selling at a loss. This signals a full transition to a loss-realizing regime, often lasting around six months. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has also been declining since October 2025. A NUPL reading below 0, where market cap falls below realized cap, could present a potential buy signal for value investors, suggesting BTC may be deeply discounted. Current metrics warn of continued bearish pressure for the next six months.

ambcrypto02/25 01:01

6 more months of bearish pressure? THESE metrics flash warnings

ambcrypto02/25 01:01

Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says

Considering buying the Bitcoin dip? Key on-chain metrics suggest it may not be the ideal time yet. The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal is still on a downward trend, indicating that market participants are either taking smaller profits or experiencing losses. For a confirmed bottom signal, this metric needs to drop further and cross below a key threshold. Additionally, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen to 0.18, showing latent profits are fading rapidly. A drop into negative territory would signal that losses dominate the market, typically marking a capitulation phase. Experts advise continued monitoring of these metrics, as a definitive buy signal has not yet emerged, and a trend reversal may take time.

bitcoinist02/21 00:02

Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says

bitcoinist02/21 00:02

Here’s When Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Is Likely To Kick Off

Bitcoin's recent price decline has ended the current cycle, but a key on-chain indicator suggests when the next bull run might begin. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for Long-Term Holders has historically signaled the start of a new bull market when it turns negative, indicating peak pessimism and seller exhaustion. Currently at 0.36, it shows holders are still in profit. Analysts note that when it flips red, it marks maximum depression, coin transfer to stronger hands, and cycle renewal. Additionally, Bitcoin accumulator addresses are aggressively buying, with monthly accumulation reaching 372,000 BTC, indicating long-term confidence and supply absorption.

bitcoinist02/18 05:02

Here’s When Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Is Likely To Kick Off

bitcoinist02/18 05:02

If You’re Wondering When The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin, You Should See This Chart

Market participants are searching for signals for Bitcoin’s next bull run. A chart by Joao Wedson, analyzing the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, offers insight. Currently at 0.36, it shows long-term holders remain in profit, historically aligning with late bull markets or consolidation phases. The critical signal occurs when NUPL turns negative—marking unrealized losses even for resilient investors. These red zones have coincided with late bear markets, maximum pessimism, and cycle bottoms, preceding every major bull run. Since the metric remains positive, historical patterns suggest the final capitulation phase hasn't yet occurred, meaning the next bull run may not be imminent.

bitcoinist02/17 22:01

If You’re Wondering When The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin, You Should See This Chart

bitcoinist02/17 22:01