# Investment Strategy İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Investment Strategy" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Despite IMF caveats, El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves grow to 7,762 BTC

El Salvador's National Bitcoin Reserve has grown to 7,762 BTC, valued at approximately $598 million with Bitcoin priced around $77,000. The government maintains its policy of purchasing one Bitcoin daily, regardless of price, as part of a long-term dollar-cost averaging strategy initiated when the country became the first to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021. This accumulation continues despite a $1.4 billion IMF funding agreement that explicitly required El Salvador to limit public sector Bitcoin purchases, make merchant acceptance voluntary, and officially revoked Bitcoin's legal tender status. President Nayib Bukele has framed the reserve as a long-term national position. While critics point to diplomatic friction with the IMF, supporters view the gradual accumulation of a scarce asset as a patient bet. The country remains one of the world's largest sovereign holders of Bitcoin.

cryptonews.ru09/02 13:51

Despite IMF caveats, El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves grow to 7,762 BTC

cryptonews.ru09/02 13:51

U.S. Tech Stocks See Their Longest Dominant Stretch in a Century. Why Is the Return Historically the Worst?

U.S. Tech Stocks' Historic, Yet Underwhelming, Run Author Jim Paulsen analyzes the current dominance of U.S. technology stocks, which has now lasted over 20 years—making it the longest such leadership cycle in the past century according to historical data dating back to 1926. Despite this unprecedented duration, the analysis reveals this cycle has generated the *lowest* relative annualized excess returns compared to the five other major tech-led bull markets in history. While tech has become synonymous with the market for a generation of investors, its long-term "buy-and-hold" performance has historically been average, punctuated by extreme cycles of outperformance and subsequent severe, prolonged periods of underperformance. The article highlights several warning signs suggesting rising risks: investor and corporate exuberance around the AI boom, aggressive capital expenditure outpacing hiring, and tech's relative performance reaching new 100-year highs. The author concludes that while the trend may continue, the concentration of risk is increasing, warranting a more cautious stance rather than a full exit from the sector.

marsbit09/01 09:33

U.S. Tech Stocks See Their Longest Dominant Stretch in a Century. Why Is the Return Historically the Worst?

marsbit09/01 09:33

Podcast Notes | Deconstructing the Latest Holdings of Alliance DAO and FOMO Founders: 70% in US Stocks, Crypto Limited to BTC and Zcash, Refusing to Catch Falling Knives for Altcoins

The Steady Lads podcast's return episode features guests Qiao Wang and Se Yong Park discussing their real portfolio allocations and market outlook. A key takeaway is the extremely defensive positioning of veteran investors: Qiao Wang allocates 70-80% to US stocks, with his crypto holdings limited strictly to Bitcoin and Zcash. Similarly, host Tiki follows a barbell strategy of S&P 500/treasuries and high-value Pokémon cards, expressing bearishness on most other tokens. Other hosts' crypto exposures are concentrated in a few select assets like Hyperliquid (Hype), Lit, NEAR, and Grass. Zcash is highlighted as a consensus buy. The logic centers on its decade-long consolidation, which has cleared out early investor sell pressure, forming a technically compelling long-term base. With a fixed supply equal to Bitcoin's but at a fraction of the price, it's presented as a high-risk/reward play positioned as a potential "private AI money." The discussion reveals a stark divide in market participation. While savvy money retreats to safety, FOMO co-founder Se reports ~40k daily non-crypto-native users flocking to mobile meme trading apps. This activity is framed as a low-friction, gamified social experience, funneling retail liquidity away from traditional "legacy" altcoins. A macro debate ensues: Jordy sees Bitcoin's renewed correlation with gold as a bullish sign amid dollar devaluation narratives. Justin, adhering to a four-year cycle theory, remains cautious, suggesting the risk/reward for chasing Bitcoin here is inferior to investing in US AI stocks. The overarching consensus is clear: capital is concentrating in high-liquidity traditional assets or a handful of high-conviction crypto bets, with the vast majority of altcoins being abandoned.

marsbit09/01 02:56

Podcast Notes | Deconstructing the Latest Holdings of Alliance DAO and FOMO Founders: 70% in US Stocks, Crypto Limited to BTC and Zcash, Refusing to Catch Falling Knives for Altcoins

marsbit09/01 02:56

Bitcoin Soars 22% in a Week, Nears 'Bull-Bear Divide'; Reviewing the Key Signals That Ended the Last Three Bear Markets

Bitcoin surged 22.8% last week, its biggest weekly gain since March 2023, approaching its 50-week moving average—a level historically viewed as a bull-bear "line in the sand." Analysis of data since 2012 shows the three previous bear markets (2015, 2019, 2023) ended when Bitcoin achieved a weekly close above this line and held it. A single false signal occurred in April 2022, distinguished by a high CSH Score (a proprietary market metric) of 65.4, indicating no capitulation selling. Currently, the CSH Score is 37.6, having risen from a low of 20.6—aligning more with true reversal patterns than false ones. However, this potential reversal is unusually fast (60 days from the July low vs. 118-284 days historically) and follows a shallower 53% drawdown. The author's systematic plan stopped buying when the score rose above 30 on August 22. If Bitcoin closes the week above the 50-week MA and holds, it would signal a likely bear market end. A sharp rejection would suggest a retest of lows. The key near-term catalyst is the upcoming US jobs report and potential Fed policy shifts. The core message: define rules for "cheap" and automate execution, freeing mental bandwidth for high-impact decisions.

marsbit08/31 06:01

Bitcoin Soars 22% in a Week, Nears 'Bull-Bear Divide'; Reviewing the Key Signals That Ended the Last Three Bear Markets

marsbit08/31 06:01

From 'Interest Rate Trading' to 'Dollar Debasement Trade', the Logic Behind Gold's Rise Has Changed

From "Rate Trade" to "Debasement Trade": The Logic Behind Gold's Rally Has Shifted Gold surged by 17% in August. According to UBS, the key development was a fundamental shift in the driving narrative mid-rally—from the traditional "rate trade" to a "debasement trade" focused on fiscal and dollar concerns. The bank breaks the summer rebound into two acts. The first was a technically-driven bounce from a solid base, supported by light positioning, resilient physical demand (especially from central banks like China's), and softening US economic data. The second act, triggered by the US Treasury's announcement to double long-term bond buybacks, marked a shift in gold's pricing logic. The market began viewing higher long-term yields as a sign of fiscal sustainability risks rather than economic strength, weakening gold's traditional inverse correlation with real rates. Gold's role evolved from an "opportunity cost" asset to a hedge against "fiscal credibility" and currency debasement, further aided by a weakening US dollar. UBS maintains a bullish outlook, noting rising upside risks to its long-term forecasts. While it lowered its 2026 year-end target to $4,675/oz, its 2027+ forecasts are unchanged, with an upside scenario target as high as $6,500/oz. The primary near-term risk is a hawkish Fed pivot, which could trigger a correction. However, UBS views any such dip as a buying opportunity, not a trend reversal, unless AI-driven growth allows for significantly higher rates. The report concludes that as gold is increasingly seen as a hedge against fiscal and currency risks, its strategic role in portfolios is changing. With overall gold allocations still low, there is significant room for further price appreciation if debt sustainability concerns drive sustained strategic buying.

marsbit08/28 04:41

From 'Interest Rate Trading' to 'Dollar Debasement Trade', the Logic Behind Gold's Rise Has Changed

marsbit08/28 04:41

Generating Profits for Seven Consecutive Quarters, Emerging Markets Carry Trade Outperforms Everything

For the seventh consecutive quarter, dollar-funded emerging market carry trades have delivered positive returns, marking the longest winning streak since 2008. According to Bloomberg's index, this strategy has gained approximately 22% since late 2024, outperforming U.S. Treasuries, emerging market sovereign, and corporate dollar debt. The core of the trade involves borrowing low-interest currencies like the U.S. dollar, euro, or yen to invest in high-yielding emerging market assets, such as Turkish lira bonds offering over 40% returns. Returns were amplified by favorable currency moves, with the dollar weakening against most emerging market currencies and other traditional funding currencies. For instance, the trade gained 48% on the Colombian peso in the past year. A key test came in August 2024 with a historic joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention, which caused only a modest 1% dip in the carry trade risk premium as investors shifted funding from the yen to the euro and Swiss franc. Looking ahead, the primary risk is the timing of Federal Reserve policy changes. While persistent inflation allows the Fed to hold rates, a rapid rise in long-term U.S. yields could threaten the trade. Another concern is crowding, as massive inflows increase vulnerability to a sudden reversal. High interest rates in regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe, supported by external factors like Middle East tensions and energy prices, continue to sustain the opportunity. Major investors remain engaged, favoring currencies like the Mexican peso, South African rand, and Turkish lira.

marsbit08/24 01:35

Generating Profits for Seven Consecutive Quarters, Emerging Markets Carry Trade Outperforms Everything

marsbit08/24 01:35

Bitcoin (BTC) Enters a Bear Market, BlackRock Remains Optimistic! Here's Why and the Latest Statements

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a bear market since October 2025, dropping over 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 to test support at $57,000. It is currently trading sideways around $63,000. In its latest analysis, asset management giant BlackRock stated that this severe correction does not invalidate the long-term investment case for the leading cryptocurrency. BlackRock attributes the decline primarily to market deleveraging, position shifts, capital rotation from Bitcoin into AI investments, weakening capital inflows, and a slowdown in digital asset purchases. It highlighted that open cryptocurrency futures positions exceeding $90 billion, with about 80% being perpetual futures outside the CME, were a significant contributor to the downturn. Additional selling pressure came from digital asset management firms and large Bitcoin holders, alongside net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite these challenges, BlackRock maintains its long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin. The firm reiterates that Bitcoin's limited supply and its potential to behave differently from traditional financial assets make it a viable tool for portfolio diversification and a potential hedge against fiat currency depreciation. BlackRock concludes that the sharp correction signals a market rebalancing of leverage and capital flows rather than a breakdown of Bitcoin's fundamental investment thesis.

cryptonews.ru08/19 13:24

Bitcoin (BTC) Enters a Bear Market, BlackRock Remains Optimistic! Here's Why and the Latest Statements

cryptonews.ru08/19 13:24

Saylor: Strategically Oriented Investors Should Hold MSTR Shares for 7–10 Years

Michael Saylor advises strategic investors to hold MSTR shares for 7-10 years. He stated shareholders need at least a 4-year horizon, acknowledging current investor frustration amid a volatile period for MicroStrategy. The company has deviated from its "never sell" Bitcoin policy four times this year, recently reporting over $102 million in Bitcoin losses from selling below cost to fund dividends and share repurchases for its preferred stock series. MicroStrategy currently holds $4.8 billion in cash, primarily reserved for dividend payments on its STRC preferred shares. Saylor clarified that share buybacks are not a current priority and would only occur if MSTR trades at a deep discount to NAV. The company has an approved $1 billion buyback plan but conditions haven't been met. The company holds 840,447 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,385, creating significant unrealized losses. Despite recent sales, CEO Phong Le emphasized the core accumulation strategy remains intact, noting the company bought ~175,000 BTC while selling only ~7,000 BTC this year, with plans to resume purchases later this year. Saylor's message frames MSTR as a long-term bet on the company's capital structure, which has weathered downturns without forced Bitcoin sales, rather than just a Bitcoin tracking instrument.

cryptonews.ru08/18 12:41

Saylor: Strategically Oriented Investors Should Hold MSTR Shares for 7–10 Years

cryptonews.ru08/18 12:41

The Optimal 'AI Bubble Trade': Simultaneously Going Long on 'Arrogance' and 'Bias'

The optimal investment strategy in the current AI bubble environment is a dual "leg" approach: going long on both "hubris" (AI tech leaders) and "humiliation" (neglected, underperforming cyclical assets). This aims to capture gains from both sides during the final surge of a nominal GDP-driven bubble, according to a Bank of America report by strategist Michael Hartnett. The bank's Bull & Bear Indicator remains in extreme bullish territory, signaling "sell", yet history shows such signals have limited immediate impact. Current fund flows show structural shifts: gold saw its largest weekly inflow since January, commodities are up 58.9% YTD, while tech stocks experienced their largest weekly outflow in seven weeks. The core thesis is that the final stage of a bubble benefits both the leading theme ("hubris" - AI) and oversold sectors ("humiliation" - like consumer stocks), similar to patterns seen in the 1999 tech bubble and 2007-2008 credit crisis. The report advises shorting "AI bonds," anticipating pressure from massive capital expenditures. Key risks include high concentration, surging bond yields, and cautious voter sentiment. The US debt burden is highlighted, with servicing costs reaching $1.4 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% is seen as a red line for policymakers. For the "avoid the dollar" theme, BofA recommends gold and Hong Kong property stocks, the latter seen as deeply undervalued. The November US midterm elections, particularly the Texas governor race concerning AI data center expansion, are flagged as a critical political variable that could determine the AI bull market's trajectory. Private client data shows record-high equity allocations (66.4%) and record-low cash levels (9.4%), indicating bullish positioning. The report concludes that while overbought conditions can pause the bull market, ending it requires a combination of excessive positioning, overly optimistic earnings, and policy tightening—a scenario not yet in place.

marsbit08/17 09:15

The Optimal 'AI Bubble Trade': Simultaneously Going Long on 'Arrogance' and 'Bias'

marsbit08/17 09:15

AI Boosting Efficiency and Cutting Costs Makes VC Increasingly Expensive

"AI for Cost Reduction Makes VC Funding More Expensive" Despite the "cost-reduction and efficiency" narrative of AI, venture capital (VC) investment in the AI sector is becoming increasingly costly. While AI tools lower the initial costs for many startups—with team sizes shrinking across funding stages—the market is polarizing. For top-tier AI teams, especially those from leading companies like Google and OpenAI, funding rounds are now larger and valuations are higher than ever at the seed and early stages. For example, new ventures by prominent researchers are securing billions in funding with valuations reaching tens of billions before having a mature product. This creates a "barbell" market: lightweight startups need less capital, while elite AI firms attract massive investments early on. This dynamic raises the cost for VCs to acquire and maintain meaningful ownership stakes. As valuations soar early, securing the same equity percentage requires significantly larger capital commitments. VCs must now invest more upfront and reserve substantial funds for follow-on rounds to avoid dilution, prompting large firms like Accel and a16z to raise massive new funds. Consequently, capital is concentrating intensely in a few perceived winners like OpenAI and Anthropic, widening the gap between large and small VC funds. While high valuations bake in future growth expectations, they also compress potential returns, demanding that portfolio companies achieve unprecedented scale. For major VCs, the core strategy is clear: secure early positions in potential winners and maintain the capital to keep investing as valuations rapidly escalate.

marsbit08/16 03:26

AI Boosting Efficiency and Cutting Costs Makes VC Increasingly Expensive

marsbit08/16 03:26

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