Data Review: How Much Profit Did Prediction Markets Reap from a Single World Cup?
**How Much Did the 2026 World Cup Boost Prediction Markets? A Data Review.**
The 2026 World Cup provided a major, temporary boost to leading prediction markets, according to an analysis of Kalshi, Polymarket, and predict.fun. During the tournament, total nominal trading volume reached $543.38 billion on Kalshi, $209.88 billion on Polymarket, and $10.92 billion on predict.fun. While Kalshi maintained an overall lead, Polymarket narrowed the gap significantly in World Cup-specific markets.
All platforms saw daily trading volumes roughly double or more during the event compared to pre-tournament levels, but activity largely retreated to baseline shortly after the final.
Fee revenue also surged. Kalshi's weekly fees peaked at over $100 million in the fourth week, totaling $473.2 million for the tournament. Polymarket's weekly fees stabilized around $20 million, totaling $111.4 million. Predict.fun saw its weekly fee income rise from a pre-tournament $159k to a peak of $755k, with a six-week total of $3.48 million. Post-tournament, daily fee income declined for all three.
Analysis of Total Value Locked (TVL) showed Polymarket's deposits remained flat around $4.4-$4.8 billion during the World Cup and later fell, suggesting the event spurred high-frequency trading but not long-term capital commitment. In contrast, predict.fun's TVL saw a clear inflow during the tournament's knockout stages, rising to a peak near $25 million before easing.
The data confirms that mega-sports events can generate massive, concentrated trading volume and revenue for prediction platforms. However, the post-tournament pullback indicates this growth is largely event-driven and doesn't automatically translate into sustained higher activity. The World Cup validated sports as a core trading category and helped users develop repeated trading habits, setting the stage for the next phase of competition focused on user retention and creating consistent trading demand.
Odaily星球日报Dün 12:14
