The Biggest Buyer Disappears: The AI Capital Frenzy Is Reversing the 'De-Equitization' Cycle in US Stocks
"The AI capital surge is reversing a two-decade-long trend of 'de-equitization' in the U.S. stock market. According to JPMorgan, net equity supply could reach $1.5 trillion over the next two years, the strongest cycle since the late 1990s. Goldman Sachs forecasts net supply will rise from negative to around zero by 2026, ending a key structural support for stocks.
This shift is driven by massive capital demands from the AI race, pushing companies from buybacks to large-scale equity issuance. Landmark events include SpaceX's record $75B IPO, with OpenAI and Anthropic poised to follow. Alphabet is planning an $85B share sale, emblematic of tech giants turning from net buyers to sellers.
While retail investors and money market funds are seen as potential buyers, concerns are rising. Analysts warn that such concentrated, large-scale issuance historically coincides with investment frenzies and often precedes weaker market returns and increased volatility. The era of easy 'stock market QE' is over, with supply becoming a significant market headwind."
marsbit06/15 03:18
