JPMorgan Predicts 2026 Will Be Shaped by AI Super-Cycle, Divergent Monetary Policies, and Economic Structural Shifts, Supporting Global Equity Gains and a Bullish Outlook for the S&P 500 to Reach 7500.

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        JPMorgan predicts that 2026 will be dominated by the AI supercycle, divergent monetary policies, and structural economic divergence, supporting a global stock market rally and a bullish outlook for the S&P 500 to reach 7500 points.
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JPMorgan's View of 2026: Economic Divergence, Policy Divergence, Soaring AI Adoption

深潮

JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook highlights a continued "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S., where high-income groups and technology sectors benefit significantly, while middle- and lower-income populations and interest-rate-sensitive industries face ongoing pressure. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, supporting risk assets like equities and corporate credit, though cyclical momentum is limited. The Federal Reserve will continue normalizing interest rates cautiously amid potential volatility.

Key investment themes include balancing portfolios across stocks, bonds, and alternative assets to capture structural opportunities and diversify returns. Three critical questions for investors are whether stocks are overvalued, if profits can remain strong, and whether AI-related stocks are in a bubble. Growth stocks, particularly in technology, remain attractive due to strong earnings, while consumer stocks lag due to tax and spending pressures. AI beneficiaries extend beyond innovators to enablers (industrials, utilities) and adopters (finance, healthcare).

Fixed income investments should focus on high-quality assets, with longer-duration bonds offering potential upside if rates decline. Despite a recent increase in international equity allocations, U.S. equities remain overweighted. The "60/40" stock/bond model is evolving into "60/40+" by incorporating alternatives for lower correlation and reduced volatility. Structural improvements in international markets and a weaker dollar support non-U.S. equities. Investors are advised to emphasize selectivity, diversification, and active management in a complex macro environment.

<div class="post-meta post__block post__block_post-meta" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-meta__author"><div class="post-meta__author-image"></div><span lang="en" data-testid="meta-author-name" class="post-meta__author-name text-sm inline-block text-text-invertedWeak"> Eva Xiang </span></div><div class="inline-block leading-5 align-middle"><time datetime="2025-12-09T09:38:08.000Z" data-gtm-locator="publication_date" data-testid="publication-date" class="text-xs sm:text-sm inline-block text-fg-updatedMuted"> 56 seconds ago </time></div></div><h1 class="post__title" data-v-ae253174> JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook: Economic 'K-Shaped Divergence' Continues; AI Adoption Soars </h1><div class="post__block post__block_lead-text" data-v-ae253174><p itemprop="description" class="post__lead text-fg-default" data-v-ae253174> JPMorgan predicts that the U.S. economy will continue its 'K-shaped' divergence in 2026, with high-income groups and the technology sector benefiting significantly, while middle- and low-income groups and interest rate-sensitive industries face pressure. Investors should achieve balanced allocations across stocks, bonds, and other assets, capturing structural opportunities and diversifying returns. </p></div><div class="post-cover post__block post__block_cover" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-cover__wrp overflow-hidden rounded-lg"><div class="lazy-image post-cover__image lazy-image_immediate"><span class="pending lazy-image__pending pending_dark"><span class="pending__runner"></span></span><picture><source media="(min-width: 1200px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=717/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1434/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727"><source media="(min-width: 992px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=587/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1174/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=638/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1276/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727"><source media="(min-width: 480px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=747/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1494/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019ab51e-a889-7b6d-832e-2fc31eb45727"><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/480f5d2166294e598f23dbe20e96872b.jpg" alt=""></div></source></source></source></source></picture></div><span hidden="hidden" class="post-cover__badge"> Report </span></div></div><div class="post__content-wrapper with_margin" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-content relative post-content_margin no-small-text" data-v-ae253174><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to continue showing resilience after the policy volatility of 2025, providing support for risk assets such as stocks and corporate credit. However, cyclical momentum remains limited, with middle- and lower-income groups facing pressure, and interest rate-sensitive industries like the real estate market still showing weakness. The Federal Reserve will continue to normalize interest rates with gradual steps, and interest rate fluctuations may occur from time to time, requiring investors to manage duration flexibly. Fixed income investments should focus more on the returns of stable assets, while in the stock market, structural themes still outperform cyclical opportunities. Artificial intelligence investment and application will continue to drive U.S. and international economic growth and profit growth. The structural momentum of overseas markets, a weaker U.S. dollar, and low expectations collectively support the performance of international stock markets. Faced with high starting point risk assets, investors need to deeply explore diversified opportunities, balancing returns and risks.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">This article provides an overview of JPMorgan's 2026 investment outlook report, exploring global market opportunities and potential risks.</p><h2><strong>The U.S. Economy Shows a Clear 'K-Shaped' Expansion</strong></h2><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">This year, the significant increase in tariff rates in the U.S. brought considerable fiscal revenue, but most of the cost was still borne by retailers. It is expected that by the fourth quarter of 2026, it will gradually be passed on to consumers, pushing up inflation and suppressing consumption in the short term, with the impact gradually weakening thereafter. At the same time, tightening immigration policies have led to a decline in the working-age population. Even though the labor force participation rate has risen, employment growth remains relatively slow, forming a certain drag on GDP growth in 2026 and beyond.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Although high tariffs and low immigration suppress economic growth, the continued rise of the stock market brings wealth effects, the artificial intelligence investment boom, and fiscal stimulus policies are also providing support for the economy.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Under this situation, the U.S. economy will present a mix of cold and hot, with a clear 'K-shaped' expansion next year: high-income groups and the technology industry benefit significantly, while tight labor supply and consumption pressure still constrain overall growth.</p><h2><strong>Three Major Focus Points and Investment Strategies for U.S. Stocks</strong></h2><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">JPMorgan points out that the U.S. stock market is expected to achieve a third consecutive year of double-digit growth, which is the third time since the global financial crisis. Looking ahead to 2026, investors will face three core questions: Are stocks too expensive? Can profits remain strong? Is there a bubble in the AI sector? In this situation, selectivity and balanced allocation are crucial for investment portfolios:</p><ul><li><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">Among growth stocks, the technology sector is the most attractive due to its outstanding profitability; consumer stocks are affected by tariffs and consumption fatigue, lagging in performance this year.</p></li><li><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">AI beneficiaries should extend from innovators (technology) to enablers (industry, public utilities) and adopters (finance, healthcare).</p></li><li><p>Traditional value sectors such as energy and consumer staples may be dragged down by low oil price confusion and low-end consumption fatigue; the financial sector has stable profits and benefits from factors such as relaxed regulation and a steeper yield curve.</p></li></ul><h2><strong>Asset Allocation Returns to 'Balance' and Diversification</strong></h2><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">JPMorgan believes that when adjusting investment directions for 2026, investors should first ask themselves several key questions: Is the goal return, capital preservation, or growth? In this process, can they tolerate volatility or prefer low risk? Is liquidity important?</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">The current macroeconomic environment remains complex: economic growth is slowing but has not stagnated, low unemployment rates mask slowing employment growth, consumption performance is uneven between high net worth groups and middle- and low-income groups; inflation remains high in the short term but is expected to decline in the second half of 2026; at the same time, major policy changes are underway. Under this volatility, investment opportunities have already changed.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">The attractiveness of bonds in the market is rising, and investors have increased their allocation to medium-term bonds, but most investors overall still prefer short-duration bonds, with sensitivity to interest rate changes lower than the market benchmark, meaning that if interest rates fall in the future, medium- and long-term bonds may bring better return potential. In the current interest rate environment, bonds are an effective tool against recession. Credit assets are similar: a mild macroeconomic environment is conducive to increased allocation, but if a recession is worried about, active management should be emphasized.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">In terms of stocks, the strong profit growth of the 'U.S. Big Seven' over the past three years has extended the strong performance of growth stocks, causing investors to underallocate other markets. Although from an index level, the value stocks and growth stocks in the U.S. stock portfolio seem balanced, specific holding analysis shows a bias towards growth stocks. In addition, investor interest in international markets has cooled after a significant rise in early 2025. For the full year, non-U.S. stock allocations have risen from an average of 20% to 25%. Although there has been an increase, it is still below the 'diversified' level. This underallocation is too significant: the structural improvement trend in international markets is expected to continue, keeping them competitive. At the same time, the breadth of the U.S. stock market performance has not improved as expected, but the direction is correct: the contribution of the Big Seven to the S&P 500 index in 2025 has decreased compared to previous years, profit growth is gradually expanding, and analysts predict that the profit growth rate of the Big Seven and other companies tends to balance. This means that when overall valuation is at a multi-year high, selected value sectors should play a greater role in 2026, while growth stocks will still benefit from long-term structural trends such as AI.</p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined">For other investments, goal-based allocation methods are particularly important. Each major asset class will play a specific role in the portfolio: high public equity valuations may constrain future returns; falling interest rates reduce return opportunities; the correlation between stocks and bonds should remain positive in a non-recession environment. At the same time, with regulatory adjustments and technological advancements, the accessibility of other assets for ordinary investors is improving (lower thresholds, enhanced liquidity). Therefore, the traditional '60/40' stock/bond framework should be changed, introducing other assets to form a '60/40+' model. Incorporating other assets into the portfolio based on investment goals can achieve more stable, low-correlation, and lower volatility returns.</p><p>Related recommendation: Homogeneous Token (NFT) Winter Intensifies: Monthly Sales Volume Falls to Year's Low</p></div><div class="post-disclaimer post__block post__block_disclaimer md:ms-[74px]" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-disclaimer__body"><p> This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from your reliance on this information. </p></div></div><div class="post__separator-line" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="tags-list post__block post__block_tags" data-v-ae253174><ul class="tags-list__list"><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Enterprise </li></ul></div><div class="adslot-after-article relative" style="--aspect-ratio:null;" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="post__separator-line" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="post__reactions reactions_3eiuR" data-v-ae253174><button class="reactions--button_NhAhG"><svg width="20" height="20" viewbox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M17.5 2.5V0.416667C17.5 0.186548 17.3134 0 17.0833 0H16.25C16.0199 0 15.8333 0.186548 15.8333 0.416667V2.5H13.75C13.5199 2.5 13.3333 2.68655 13.3333 2.91667V3.75C13.3333 3.98012 13.5199 4.16667 13.75 4.16667H15.8333V6.25C15.8333 6.48012 16.0199 6.66667 16.25 6.66667H17.0833C17.3134 6.66667 17.5 6.48012 17.5 6.25V4.16667H19.5833C19.8134 4.16667 20 3.98012 20 3.75V2.91667C20 2.68655 19.8134 2.5 19.5833 2.5H17.5Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M9.58332 4.16667C6.13154 4.16667 3.33332 6.96489 3.33332 10.4167C3.33332 13.8684 6.13154 16.6667 9.58332 16.6667C13.0351 16.6667 15.8333 13.8684 15.8333 10.4167V8.75C15.8333 8.51988 16.0199 8.33333 16.25 8.33333H17.0833C17.3134 8.33333 17.5 8.51988 17.5 8.75V10.4167C17.5 14.7889 13.9556 18.3333 9.58332 18.3333C5.21107 18.3333 1.66666 14.7889 1.66666 10.4167C1.66666 6.04441 5.21107 2.5 9.58332 2.5H11.25C11.4801 2.5 11.6667 2.68655 11.6667 2.91667V3.75C11.6667 3.98012 11.4801 4.16667 11.25 4.16667H9.58332Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M7.08332 10.4167C7.77368 10.4167 8.33332 9.85702 8.33332 9.16667C8.33332 8.47631 7.77368 7.91667 7.08332 7.91667C6.39297 7.91667 5.83332 8.47631 5.83332 9.16667C5.83332 9.85702 6.39297 10.4167 7.08332 10.4167Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M13.3333 9.16667C13.3333 9.85702 12.7737 10.4167 12.0833 10.4167C11.393 10.4167 10.8333 9.85702 10.8333 9.16667C10.8333 8.47631 11.393 7.91667 12.0833 7.91667C12.7737 7.91667 13.3333 8.47631 13.3333 9.16667Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M6.18102 12.5C5.86965 12.5 5.67271 12.8279 5.85392 13.0811C6.68534 14.2429 8.04608 15 9.58365 15C11.1212 15 12.482 14.2429 13.3134 13.0811C13.4946 12.8279 13.2976 12.5 12.9863 12.5H6.18102Z" fill="#303D43"></path></svg><span class="reactions--button-text_N11-8"> Add emoji </span></button></div><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/3f633f1c8c944cab9c4ded0319b915b3.jpg" alt=""></div></div>

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