# Cycle İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Cycle" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Bitcoin Is Playing Out The Same Cycle Again On A Bigger Scale

Bitcoin's recent rebound has failed to resolve debates among analysts regarding the current market phase. Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin is repeating the same cyclical pattern observed in previous bear markets, albeit on a larger scale with slower momentum, deeper institutional involvement, and reduced volatility. The pattern typically includes a parabolic advance, distribution, a sharp decline, a deceptive recovery, and eventual capitulation. Analysts argue the downtrend remains incomplete, citing on-chain metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and long-term holder stress, which indicate that investor pain and negative sentiment have not yet reached extremes typical of cycle bottoms. Historical data shows prior bear markets resulted in drawdowns of 77-84% and formed bottoms roughly a year after all-time highs. With Bitcoin currently down 40.8% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080, further downside is possible. Projections based on past cycles suggest a potential bottom may occur in Q3 or Q4 2026.

bitcoinistDün 20:38

Bitcoin Is Playing Out The Same Cycle Again On A Bigger Scale

bitcoinistDün 20:38

Bitcoin Sentiment Is Turning Bullish Again, But This Analyst Says It’s Not A Good Thing, Here’s Why

Bitcoin has rebounded above $73,000, shifting market sentiment from fear to renewed bullish optimism. However, analyst Max argues that this shift is actually a bearish signal. Based on historical Bitcoin cycles, he suggests that when sentiment gradually turns positive too early, it often indicates the market bottom has not yet been reached. Max points to three missing technical conditions for a cycle low: total capitulation, repeated tests of lows, and a confirmed weekly market structure reversal. Comparing past cycles, he notes that Bitcoin typically undergoes around 365 days of decline after a peak. Projecting from the 2025 top, Max anticipates a potential bottom around October 2026, with a price target of $40,000, aligning with historical bear market duration and magnitude. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $74,590.

bitcoinistDün 15:33

Bitcoin Sentiment Is Turning Bullish Again, But This Analyst Says It’s Not A Good Thing, Here’s Why

bitcoinistDün 15:33

Something Bad Is Coming For Bitcoin: Analyst Says BTC Has Entered This Bearish Sell Zone

Bitcoin's recent price action above $70,000 appears bullish, but technical analysis suggests a potential downturn is imminent. According to analyst Tony Research, Bitcoin follows a consistent four-year cycle pattern, historically involving a bull run to new all-time highs followed by a distribution phase and a major correction. The current cycle, which began in 2023, is tracking similarly to previous ones and may have already peaked in October 2025 near $126,000. The current trading range between $60,000 and $76,000 indicates market indecision and is likely the final stage before a deeper correction. The Gaussian Channel indicator shows BTC has entered a terminal distribution phase, signaling that a significant drop could occur at any time. Additionally, analysis based on the 200-day moving average suggests this is not an ideal time for aggressive accumulation, as Bitcoin has already spent many months above this key level.

bitcoinist2 gün önce 03:02

Something Bad Is Coming For Bitcoin: Analyst Says BTC Has Entered This Bearish Sell Zone

bitcoinist2 gün önce 03:02

Bank of Korea Interprets the AI Semiconductor Cycle: The Most Dangerous Signal Lies in Financing

The Bank of Korea (BoK) released a report examining the sustainability of the current AI-driven semiconductor supercycle, concluding that the expansion is likely to continue until at least the first half of 2026. The report highlights three key differences from past cycles: unprecedented demand growth (driven by HBM and AI accelerators), severely constrained supply (due to complex HBM production and conservative industry expansion), and a significantly larger and longer supply-demand gap. Five critical factors will determine the cycle's longevity: 1. The profitability of AI investments, as market focus shifts from market share capture to earnings. 2. The ability of major tech firms to secure financing, with internal cash flows already insufficient to cover massive CAPEX, leading to increased corporate debt issuance and risky vendor financing structures reminiscent of the telecom bubble. 3. Uncertain impact of AI model efficiency improvements, which could either reduce per-unit demand or increase total consumption. 4. Expansion speed of major memory manufacturers, with significant new capacity from SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung only expected from late 2027. 5. Ramping production from Chinese manufacturers, whose DRAM market share is projected to grow rapidly, pressuring prices. The report warns that financing fragility—evidenced by rising CDS spreads, off-balance-sheet SPV financing, and redemption halts in private credit funds—is the most critical risk. While the cycle remains robust through 2026, pressures are expected to build in 2027, with a heightened risk of overcapacity by 2028.

marsbit04/13 08:51

Bank of Korea Interprets the AI Semiconductor Cycle: The Most Dangerous Signal Lies in Financing

marsbit04/13 08:51

Bitcoin Bull Phase Pattern Shows When BTC Price Will Bottom At $41,400

A crypto analyst, Philarekt, predicts Bitcoin's current bull phase has ended and the asset is in a prolonged bear market. Contrary to expectations of new highs, he identifies the peak at over $126,000 in October 2025 as the cycle top. Based on historical patterns where each bull phase lasts about 1,450 days and is followed by a 365-day bear market, he forecasts a further decline. Bitcoin is expected to bottom around $41,400, a 64% drop from its peak, by early October 2026. As of the writing date (April 11, 2026), BTC is 187 days into this decline with 178 days remaining until the projected low.

bitcoinist04/12 06:37

Bitcoin Bull Phase Pattern Shows When BTC Price Will Bottom At $41,400

bitcoinist04/12 06:37

Bitcoin Price Bottom Not In Yet, Crypto Founder Calls ‘One Final Dump’

Bitcoin's recent price surge above $73,000 has sparked debate on whether the market has bottomed. However, crypto founder Joao Wedson suggests a "final dump" may still occur. His analysis, based on on-chain data, indicates that the Investor Price has fallen below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price—a signal that historically precedes a cycle bottom. This pattern suggests weaker investors are exiting while stronger hands accumulate, but the process is slow, leading to sideways or downward pressure. Market rallies are likely to fade due to selling pressure from investors seeking to break even. Wedson concludes the current structure resembles a mid-cycle reset rather than a final bottom, favoring gradual accumulation over rapid price expansion.

bitcoinist04/12 02:01

Bitcoin Price Bottom Not In Yet, Crypto Founder Calls ‘One Final Dump’

bitcoinist04/12 02:01

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Losses Hit 14%—But Far Below Bear Bottom Levels

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), who have held coins for over 155 days, are currently experiencing significant unrealized losses equivalent to 14% of the market cap—the highest level since 2023. This increase is attributed to recent bearish price action and the maturation of coins purchased near the market peak into the LTH cohort. However, historical data shows that during previous bear market bottoms, LTH losses spiked to around 70%, suggesting current levels, while elevated, remain far below those extremes. Despite ongoing losses, Bitcoin price has recently recovered above $72,000.

bitcoinist04/11 00:41

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Losses Hit 14%—But Far Below Bear Bottom Levels

bitcoinist04/11 00:41

Geopolitical Risks Recede: Samsung's Q1 Results Far Exceed Consensus, South Korean Stock Index Surges Strongly

Samsung Electronics reported record-breaking Q1 2026 earnings, with revenue surging 68.1% YoY to 133 trillion KRW and operating profit skyrocketing 755% YoY to 57.2 trillion KRW, far exceeding market expectations. This performance, driven by the AI-driven memory super cycle (HBM, DRAM, NAND), triggered a dramatic 6.87% rebound in South Korea's KOSPI index. The rally was further fueled by reduced geopolitical risks after a temporary two-week US-Iran ceasefire eased concerns over semiconductor supply chain disruptions, particularly helium supply from Qatar critical for chip manufacturing. While short-term impact from Middle East conflicts remains low due to sufficient inventory, medium-to-long-term risks persist if tensions resume. Samsung's valuation appears reasonable amid the AI boom, but cyclicality and supply chain vulnerabilities warrant caution.

marsbit04/10 12:32

Geopolitical Risks Recede: Samsung's Q1 Results Far Exceed Consensus, South Korean Stock Index Surges Strongly

marsbit04/10 12:32

Ethereum Hitting A Bottom Or A Bearish Continuation? The Cycle Theory That Tells A Story

Crypto analyst Tony Severino analyzes Ethereum's current market cycle, noting it has deviated from historical trends with a prolonged corrective phase. He explains that cycles can complete without reaching new all-time highs, often exhibiting bear-market rallies with higher lows and lower highs. Severino introduces "intracycle harmonics" as smaller cycles within the larger trend, suggesting recent ETH price gains may be misleading bear-market rallies. He emphasizes Ethereum has not yet bottomed, with key support around $2,000. A break below this level could lead to further declines, potentially targeting $800 or even $440, indicating more downside before a final floor is established.

bitcoinist04/09 23:09

Ethereum Hitting A Bottom Or A Bearish Continuation? The Cycle Theory That Tells A Story

bitcoinist04/09 23:09

Is April 13 The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin? Analyst Shares The Best Strategy For Getting The Most Profits

A crypto analyst known as Mags has proposed a disciplined long-term investment strategy for Bitcoin, called the "500-day Bitcoin strategy," rather than recommending short-term entry points like April 13. The approach involves buying BTC exactly 500 days before a halving event, holding through market fluctuations, and selling 500 days later to capture significant gains. Mags points to January 13, 2027, as the next optimal entry date, ahead of the expected May 2028 halving. Historical data from previous cycles shows this strategy allowed investors to buy near cycle lows and sell near peaks—for example, purchasing between $3,000–$5,000 before the 2020 halving and selling above $69,000. The most recent sell signal occurred on August 24, 2025, near $109,000, allowing investors to secure substantial profits before the subsequent 45% decline. The strategy is designed to minimize emotional trading and maximize returns over full market cycles.

bitcoinist04/09 22:38

Is April 13 The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin? Analyst Shares The Best Strategy For Getting The Most Profits

bitcoinist04/09 22:38

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