Why Didn't BTC Fall Amid Geopolitical Conflict? The Answer Lies in Binance Fund Structure and CVD
This article analyzes why Bitcoin (BTC) has remained stable despite recent geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-Iran military conflict, by examining Binance’s BTC balance and market demand indicators.
Key observations include a significant reduction in Binance’s BTC balance by 25,135 BTC since February 20, 2026, coinciding with price stability during the conflict. The author argues this outflow reflects genuine demand, primarily from high-net-worth investors (transfers of $1M–$10M), rather than institutional or market-maker activity.
Binance’s BTC Coin Volume Difference (CVD), which measures net difference between active buy and sell volumes, shows a sharp increase in the 30-day average relative to the 90-day median, indicating strong organic buying interest. This is further supported by a decline in the USDC/USDT exchange rate below 1, suggesting stronger demand for Tether-based purchasing power.
While short-term demand appears robust, supporting a stable or slightly bullish trend, the broader CVD trend remains downward, similar to the pre-May 2022 period. The author concludes that BTC may experience short-term stability or weak rebounds, but the larger market structure is still in a longer-term corrective phase, requiring more time for sustained recovery.
marsbit03/12 09:38