# Analysis İlgili Makaleler

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Bitcoin: BTC loses half its value, yet THIS metric shows quiet accumulation

Bitcoin has lost over half its value since its October 2025 peak, currently trading in a $58,000-$63,000 range. The decline was driven by geopolitical tensions causing capital outflows. Despite this, on-chain data shows quiet accumulation, with apparent demand improving from -275,000 to -75,000 BTC over 30 days, though it remains negative. Technical analysis indicates limited downside, with price finding support at the Bollinger Bands lower band, but the MACD suggests further consolidation is likely. The Bitcoin Season Index reads 52, indicating no euphoric rally, and exchange reserves are declining, pointing to reduced selling pressure. Overall, the market shows signs of accumulation but not a confirmed bullish reversal, warranting a cautious outlook.

ambcrypto3 saat önce

Bitcoin: BTC loses half its value, yet THIS metric shows quiet accumulation

ambcrypto3 saat önce

Can Ethereum’s $150B stablecoin liquidity help ETH bulls reclaim control?

Ethereum has established itself as a leading infrastructure for digital dollars, now holding over $150 billion in on-chain stablecoin liquidity, a sign of real economic activity. Despite trading at $1,748.47 with an 11% weekly gain, it faces a key resistance zone between $1,750 and $1,800, where selling pressure has historically capped rallies. However, recent inflows into ETH ETFs and a potential technical "double bottom" pattern suggest buyers may be regaining momentum. Analysts link long-term bullish prospects, with price targets as high as $8,500 by mid-2027, to the growth of stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization on Ethereum. The ongoing "Lean Ethereum" protocol redesign further underscores the network's evolving utility beyond speculation.

ambcrypto23 saat önce

Can Ethereum’s $150B stablecoin liquidity help ETH bulls reclaim control?

ambcrypto23 saat önce

CryptoQuant Founder: The Cost to Double BTC Has Increased by 20,000 Times, Where Will the $100 Billion Buying Power Come From?

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju analyzes Bitcoin's current capital challenge. He notes that the cryptocurrency market has grown too large for retail-driven momentum alone to generate massive price increases as in past cycles. His calculations show that in 2011, approximately $2.7 million in capital inflow could push BTC's price up by 550x, whereas the current cycle requires an estimated $101 billion in new capital just for a 100% price increase. This shift underscores that sustaining a bull run now depends on attracting large-scale, long-term institutional capital rather than short-term speculative trading. Recent outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling nearly $10 billion since May, highlight the fragility of current demand and challenge the narrative of deep institutional support. While surveys indicate continued institutional interest, these entities prioritize regulated products, risk management, and portfolio integration over speculative gains. For the next significant bull market, Bitcoin must transition to being a core macro asset. The key drivers are no longer just more buyers, but capital allocation from larger, slower-moving entities like wealth advisors, corporate treasuries, banks, and sovereign wealth funds. This new phase pits Bitcoin against other major asset classes like AI for a share of institutional capital, making its growth trajectory dependent on sustained, high-quality inflows from diversified financial balance sheets.

marsbitDün 05:07

CryptoQuant Founder: The Cost to Double BTC Has Increased by 20,000 Times, Where Will the $100 Billion Buying Power Come From?

marsbitDün 05:07

XRP Holds The $1 Line As Altcoin Traders Wait For Direction

XRP is trading around $1.06, holding the psychologically important $1 support level while the broader cryptocurrency market awaits direction. This level is not technically significant but matters as a key sentiment gauge watched by traders. Maintaining above $1 keeps bullish hopes alive, while a sustained break below could damage sentiment and trigger further declines. Currently, XRP is not leading the market but surviving it, acting as a patient trade in a cautious environment. Its ability to hold this level depends on broader market stability and whether buyers can actively push the price higher, turning the psychological floor into a real base for recovery.

bitcoinistDün 23:21

XRP Holds The $1 Line As Altcoin Traders Wait For Direction

bitcoinistDün 23:21

Crypto Welcomes the 'July Rebound'? On-Chain Bottom Signals Align, Reversal Still Requires Breakthrough Above $70k

The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of a potential "July rebound," with Bitcoin leading a recovery above $63,000 and total market cap rising. This bounce is attributed to improved macro expectations (weaker US jobs data easing Fed hike fears), a short squeeze in derivatives, and signs of whale accumulation. Key on-chain metrics signal a potential bottom, including the Sharpe Ratio hitting extreme lows, the AHR999 index nearing historic buy zones, and miner pressure reaching significant levels. However, analysts caution this is likely a corrective rebound rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Persistent challenges include weak spot demand, negative Coinbase Premium indicating institutional caution, and ongoing selling pressure in the altcoin market. Market sentiment remains in "extreme fear" territory, and the AVIV ratio suggests the average active Bitcoin investor is still at a loss. For a true bullish reversal, Bitcoin needs to convincingly break above the key $70,000 level (aligned with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price). The path to a new parabolic bull market is seen as dependent on attracting substantially more capital, as capital efficiency has declined. While prices may be approaching a cyclical bottom zone (with estimates between $37k-$60k), the market requires more sustained positive signals for a definitive uptrend.

marsbitDün 10:04

Crypto Welcomes the 'July Rebound'? On-Chain Bottom Signals Align, Reversal Still Requires Breakthrough Above $70k

marsbitDün 10:04

Is altcoin season here? Why Bitcoin’s $21B OI says not yet

While Glassnode's Altcoin Cycle Signal suggests altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin overall, indicating the start of an altcoin season, analysis of Open Interest (OI) presents a counterpoint. Bitcoin's OI stands at $21.11 billion, significantly higher than the $16.36 billion for altcoins. This signals that trader focus and capital inflows remain concentrated on Bitcoin, implying the broader altcoin market may still have room for expansion. Historically, altcoin rallies have often peaked when their OI surpasses Bitcoin's. Analysts note Bitcoin is holding support around $58,000, with selling pressure potentially fading. Some view the current Bitcoin price as an attractive long-term entry point, contingent on factors like Federal Reserve policy. However, as long as Bitcoin continues to dominate capital flows and the altcoin index remains below a key threshold, the market is seen as being in a Bitcoin-led phase rather than a full-blown altcoin season. The consensus is that a broad rotation into altcoins has not yet fully materialized.

ambcrypto2 gün önce 02:01

Is altcoin season here? Why Bitcoin’s $21B OI says not yet

ambcrypto2 gün önce 02:01

Bitcoin: Here’s why Bitcoin’s Q3 price rally could face a liquidity test

Bitcoin shows signs of nearing a market bottom, with on-chain data indicating heavy losses (Realized P/L Ratio at -0.35) and recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $223 million in net inflows, suggesting easing selling pressure and renewed institutional demand. This could strengthen Bitcoin's $60k support and support a Q3 recovery. However, the rally faces a critical liquidity test. Despite ETF inflows, stablecoin liquidity (USDC and USDT market caps) continues to contract, with over $1 billion exiting this week. As traders rebuild leveraged positions amid growing confidence, the lack of expanding spot liquidity may leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a liquidation-driven correction, potentially causing its Q3 rally to struggle to maintain momentum.

ambcrypto2 gün önce 09:02

Bitcoin: Here’s why Bitcoin’s Q3 price rally could face a liquidity test

ambcrypto2 gün önce 09:02

How Celestia’s network upgrade triggered TIA’s 102% volume surge

Celestia's network upgrade on July 1st successfully triggered a significant market response. The price of TIA increased by over 10%, and its daily trading volume surged by 102% to $59.5 million. This rally was primarily driven by renewed spot market participation. However, a divergence emerged: while spot buying was strong, futures market data indicated persistent selling pressure and cautious sentiment among derivatives traders. Despite this, bullish leverage remained in place with positive funding rates. Technically, TIA approached a key resistance level at $0.4045, with a potential breakout above it targeting the next resistance at $0.5000. The market structure showed a contrast between optimistic spot activity and skeptical futures positioning.

ambcrypto07/05 04:01

How Celestia’s network upgrade triggered TIA’s 102% volume surge

ambcrypto07/05 04:01

Bitcoin eyes macro jump to $70K after drop below $60k – What’s next for BTC?

Bitcoin's price recently dipped below $60,000 but has since recovered to around $61,540. While technical indicators like the RSI and MACD show some bullish signs, they are not strongly convincing. On-chain data reveals a market reset, with asset managers' net long exposure at its lowest since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launches, though they remain net long. Leveraged funds have significantly reduced net short positions, and open interest has fallen sharply, indicating leverage is being unwound. Long-term holders are buying at lower prices, providing support. However, Bitcoin remains below its 30-day moving average, suggesting the overall trend is not yet fully bullish. Large transfers to exchanges like Coinbase Prime have occurred, potentially indicating future selling pressure. Analysts warn that downside risk remains as Bitcoin has not reached severely oversold levels typical of cycle bottoms. The market's next major move may depend on institutional activity.

ambcrypto07/03 16:02

Bitcoin eyes macro jump to $70K after drop below $60k – What’s next for BTC?

ambcrypto07/03 16:02

How Far Are We from the End of the Crypto Bear Market?

How Much Longer Until the Crypto Bear Market Ends? A persistent negative Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, reaching a record 46 consecutive days of negative values, underscores the ongoing crypto bear market. The downturn accelerated in late May/early June when MicroStrategy (referred to as "Strategy" in the text), a major BTC holder, sold a small amount of Bitcoin (32 BTC), shattering market confidence and triggering sharp declines in BTC, ETH, and SOL. This was compounded by sustained net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. June saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $60,000, its worst weekly performance since 2022, breaking below the critical 200-week moving average—a signal some analysts consider confirmation of a bear market. While some institutional analyses in mid-June suggested the bottom might be near (e.g., around $53,600 based on realized price, or a potential end during the 2026 World Cup summer), further price drops quickly disproved these optimistic forecasts. Key bear market indicators include: the severe de-pegging of MicroStrategy's preferred shares (STRC) from their $100 NAV, which later recovered partly due to company stabilization plans; a record number of BTC (over 10.83 million) and a significant portion of long-term ETH holders now in unrealized loss; and Bitcoin's price trading below its 200-week moving average. Predictions for the bear market's end vary. Some, like investor Yilihua, suggest July-August 2026 could present a final buying opportunity. Others, like miner Jiang Zhu'o'er, predict a bottom between $42,000-$44,000 in October-December 2026, based on the historical lag between MicroStrategy's mNAV ratio bottom and Bitcoin's price bottom. Technical indicators like the BTC 4-year average price index dipped briefly below 1, and the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, suggesting a need for a price rebound to around $77,000 for a return to positive territory. In the absence of major external catalysts, the consensus leans toward the bear market persisting for another 2-3 months, with late September to early October 2026 being a potential turning point window.

Odaily星球日报07/03 10:19

How Far Are We from the End of the Crypto Bear Market?

Odaily星球日报07/03 10:19

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