Ten Almost Risk-Free Absurd Bets on Polymarket
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, lists numerous speculative event contracts. This article highlights ten seemingly "risk-free" betting opportunities based on high-probability outcomes, where users can earn modest returns by wagering against unlikely events. The selection criteria include contracts with over $3000 in order book depth (excluding sports), "yes/no" probabilities between 90%-99%, and minimal real-world risk of a black swan event.
Examples include betting that Jesus Christ will not return by 2027 (2-3% return), the US will not confirm alien existence (6-7%), and a US civil war will not occur (4-5%). Other opportunities involve predictable outcomes, such as US national debt exceeding $39 trillion (near-certain, 1-2% return) and Elon Musk remaining the world's richest person (9-10%). The article cautions that while these bets appear safe, unexpected events or resolution disputes could pose risks.
Odaily星球日报01/06 02:13
