Author: Tommy (Shaughnessy119)
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: In the face of recent market volatility and various noises, Delphi Digital co-founder Tommy shared his five core reasons for being bullish on the cryptocurrency market, based on the current macroeconomic background, policy trends, and cutting-edge technology developments.
He believes that as Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve expands, expectations of low interest rates will drive capital from U.S. Treasuries to risk assets; meanwhile, the strength of gold is not a competitor to cryptocurrencies but a shared signal of damaged confidence in the U.S. dollar.
Additionally, the article delves into how the shift in the AI industry narrative could release liquidity into the crypto space and why the "quantum computing threat" is currently overhyped.
Full text as follows:
I believe cryptocurrencies will start rising from now on based on the following macro factors:
1/ Trump wants to lower yields. If he really pushes for changes at the Fed (Truflation currently shows an inflation rate of 1.2%(!), and the Biden administration cut rates faster with higher inflation—e.g., a 50 basis point cut in September 2024), people will pull out of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills, which currently offer over 5% risk-free returns) and move into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. It looks like we'll soon have a new Fed chair.
2/ The bid for gold/silver is absolutely insane. I don't think the money in gold/silver will flow directly into cryptocurrencies. I believe the underlying reason people are exiting risk assets/the dollar for gold (i.e., concerns about the dollar and fiscal health) will drive massive money printing, which benefits cryptocurrencies as a hedge against currency debasement. Thanks to Nic Carter for the discussion. The midterm elections will only make the money printer go faster.
(Translator's note: This article was written before last week's silver plunge.)
3/ I am very bullish on Gemini and the overall prospects of AI (I was a strong Google bull this summer), but it feels like all the good news in the world is already priced in.
We no longer hold parades for new model releases (like ChatGPT 5.2), and OpenAI is facing serious talent drain and legal concerns. The current meta-narrative is shifting to workflows, applications, and content built through Claude Code, which is positive for Bitcoin's underlying AI models and APIs, but the focus and news flow are changing.
Given the frenzy around Mac Mini, local AI might actually become a reality because centralized APIs are quite expensive (these ClaudeBot executive assistants aren't cheap), which could drive people to deploy local open-source models to reduce costs, not just for ideological reasons. Until artificial general intelligence (AGI) is achieved, it feels like these stocks will continue to rise or fluctuate but won't have the "wow factor" we saw in the past.
Obviously, once AGI is achieved, they will skyrocket. I'm neutral on whether IPOs from OpenAI/Anthropic are positive or negative for cryptocurrencies, as they release a lot of liquidity looking for investments, but retail investors must choose between cryptocurrencies or AGI stocks. I lean toward being bullish on cryptocurrencies because you no longer need to go through three to five layers of SPVs (special purpose vehicles) to grab AI private shares; you can easily buy and sell without locking funds in illiquid AI private deals.
4/ Quantum computing is this year's wild card, but I think Coinbase and other entities are taking it more seriously because Nic rightly sounded the alarm (see his excellent report and his performance on our podcast). If you talk to experts in thermodynamics (who hold contrary views to the quantum field, favoring leveraging the universe's randomness rather than trying to constrain and guide it), you'll get contrarian perspectives on quantum computing.
Currently, the risk curve in the quantum field is shifting downward (with risk capital pulling out), which will extend and impact large-cap assets and narratives, currently affecting Bitcoin (BTC) negatively. Quantum down, crypto up. $IonQ / $QBTS / $RGTI are all down 13-18% from their January highs.
5/ If cryptocurrencies gain support from the Clarity Act in the short term (currently, banks are fighting stablecoins to maintain their monopoly on dollar yields), coupled with the SEC, CFTC, and the Trump administration racing to clear regulatory hurdles for cryptocurrencies, this will be a strong positive. The act is scheduled for markup on January 29, but this is not the final vote.
In summary, I'm not a macro expert, and I'm actually grilling outdoors right now, so take these views with a grain of salt.
