BitMart Research Institute Weekly Insights: Fed Hawkish Expectations Heat Up, Crypto Market Continues to Face Pressure, RWA Sector Defies Trend and Breaks Out

marsbit2026-06-23 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-06-23 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

**BitMart Research Weekly: Fed Hawkishness Weighs on Crypto, RWA Sector Shows Strength** In traditional markets, US equities were mixed as weakening macro data signaled slowing growth. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%, with half of its officials projecting at least one rate hike this year, adopting a more hawkish stance. The crypto market faced sustained pressure. BTC fell 3.7%, underperforming ETH, which dropped 1.2%. Overall market sentiment remained in "Extreme Fear." US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $226.8 million for the week, indicating a lack of sustained institutional buying. Despite the bearish backdrop, the Real World Assets (RWA) narrative gained traction. XLM surged 12.2%, driven by Stellar's RWA tokenization roadmap. Stablecoin market capitalization stabilized near $315.3B, showing structural shifts towards compliant and institutional cash management tools like USDG and BUIDL. A notable stress point emerged as Strategy's STRC traded below its $100 face value for a fifth consecutive week, pressuring its dividend model and raising questions about its Bitcoin treasury management strategy.

I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets

1. High Divergence in US Stocks: Signals of Slowing Growth Intertwined with Middle East Uncertainties

US stock markets showed high divergence last week. The S&P 500 fell slightly by 0.22%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.27%, and the Dow Jones increased by 0.39%. Macro data continued to weaken: the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts dropped sharply to 1.177 million units, and May retail sales grew by 0.4% month-on-month. Overall, this indicates that the high-interest-rate environment is gradually suppressing aggregate demand.

The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 226,000. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 223,250, providing some support for overall consumption. The coexistence of consumer resilience with weakening real estate and manufacturing sectors creates a structural divergence, making the Federal Reserve's policy path more complex. The pace of economic cooling is insufficient to drive inflation down rapidly.

2. Fed Holds Rates Steady, Half of Officials Project Rate Hikes This Year, Wash Changes Style

The Federal Reserve maintained the policy rate at 3.75% with a 12:0 vote. Among the 18 officials, 9 project at least one rate hike this year, with 6 projecting more than one hike. Only 1 projects a rate cut this year, and 1 official did not submit Summary of Economic Projections. The Philadelphia Fed's "prices paid" index rose from 47.9 to 53.2, further strengthening the tightening stance.

New Chairman Wash adopted a communication style different from his predecessor, frequently mentioning "first principles," "alternative frameworks," and "mandate range." He was the only official to refuse to submit future interest rate projections in this dot plot, emphasizing that the Fed's core task is achieving price stability. This FOMC statement was almost completely rewritten, significantly shorter in length, increasing market uncertainty about the Fed's future communication and policy path.

II. Crypto Market

1. Market Performance: BTC Underperforms ETH, Market Sentiment Remains in Extreme Fear

Last week, BTC fell 3.7%, fluctuating within the $62,000–$65,000 range; ETH fell 1.2%, remaining around $1,700. As BTC performed significantly weaker than ETH, the BTC/ETH ratio fell 1.6%. The total crypto market cap fell 3.1%; excluding BTC and ETH, the market cap fell 2.3%; the altcoin market excluding the top 10 tokens fell 3.0%, showing a clear broad-based decline pattern.

The top 30 crypto assets fell by an average of 2.5%. Only XLM recorded a significant gain, rising 12.2%, driven by Stellar's roadmap for RWA tokenization, payments, and corporate settlements. Market sentiment remained in the "Extreme Fear" zone, with the Fear & Greed Index at 20. Additionally, jaredfromsubway.eth, one of the largest MEV sandwich bots on Ethereum, suffered a reverse attack, losing approximately $7.5 million, bringing on-chain security risks back into market focus.

2. ETF Flows: BTC Net Outflow of $226.8M, Institutional Buying Has Not Resumed Sustained Inflows

Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $226.8 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of approximately $10 million. Split by trading day, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $64.09 million on June 15, a small net inflow of about $10.06 million on June 16, net outflows of about $82.16 million and $90.66 million on June 17 and 18 respectively. The US market was closed on June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday.

For ETH ETFs, there were small net inflows on June 15 and 16, but flows turned net negative again from June 17 to 18, resulting in a week overall close to a small outflow. Overall, compared to the large outflows of the previous week, pressure eased somewhat, but institutional funds have not resumed sustained buying.

3. On-Chain Data: Stablecoin Total Supply Stabilizes, Structure Shows Divergence

DeFiLlama data shows that as of June 22, the total stablecoin market cap was approximately $315.3 billion, increasing by about $287 million in 7 days, a rise of about 0.09%. USDT's market share is about 59.05%. USDT saw a slight 7-day decrease of about 0.12%, USDC grew slightly by about 0.06%, indicating overall stability in mainstream settlement funds. USDS decreased by about 3.47% over 7 days, continuing the trend where ecosystem-focused stablecoins are more prone to contraction in volatile environments.

USD1 and USDG grew by about 9.27% and 6.74% respectively, reflecting expansion in compliance-oriented stablecoins and channel-based distribution networks. USDe remained largely flat over 7 days, with the expansion pace of yield-generating stablecoins slowing but no significant redemptions. BUIDL and USYC maintained slight growth, indicating continued resilience in institutional on-chain cash management demand. Overall, the stablecoin market shifted from total supply contraction in the previous week to supply stabilization with structural divergence, but funds still favor high-certainty dollar instruments.

4. Industry Narratives: STRC Trades Below Par for Fifth Consecutive Week, Strategy's Funding Flywheel Under Pressure

STRC has traded below its $100 par value for the fifth consecutive week. Its price once fell to around $82 before recovering to about $88, but its weekly trading volume still reached $1.6 billion. The nominal dividend yield has risen to 11.5%, with market discussion on whether to raise it further to 11.75% or 12%. Notably, Strategy, which once claimed it would "never sell Bitcoin," sold 32 BTC for the first time in late May this year, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay for preferred share distributions.

Strategy currently faces three potential response paths: raising the STRC dividend yield (each 0.5% increase would bring about $52.45 million in additional annual dividend costs); selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which would weaken the core narrative; or issuing new STRC shares below par value, which would structurally increase the long-term dividend burden. Last week, STRC accounted for 76.2% of the total trading volume of Bitcoin Treasury preferred securities, down from 80% the previous week. The second most traded asset was Strive's SATA, accounting for 15.8%.

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment risks are high. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and implement strict risk control before trading.

İlgili Sorular

QAccording to the article, what were the main macroeconomic factors influencing the cryptocurrency market last week?

AThe main factors were a highly divided US stock market with slowing growth signals, a Federal Reserve that maintained interest rates while its 'dot plot' showed a majority of officials expecting at least one rate hike this year, and Fed Chair Warsh's communication shift creating market uncertainty. Weak macroeconomic data, such as a sharp drop in the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and housing starts, indicated high interest rates are dampening demand.

QHow did the performance of Bitcoin compare to Ethereum last week, and what was the market sentiment?

ABitcoin underperformed Ethereum, falling 3.7% compared to Ethereum's 1.2% decline. Consequently, the BTC/ETH ratio fell by 1.6%. Overall market sentiment remained in the 'Extreme Fear' zone, with the Fear and Greed Index at 20.

QWhat was the trend for US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF fund flows last week?

AUS spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $226.8 million for the week. US spot Ethereum ETFs experienced a smaller net outflow of around $10 million. While the outflows moderated compared to the previous week, institutional capital had not yet resumed sustained buying.

QWhat is the current situation with STRC, and what challenges does its issuer, Strategy, face according to the article?

ASTRC has traded below its par value for five consecutive weeks, with its price dipping to around $82 before recovering to about $88. Its nominal dividend yield has risen to 11.5%. Strategy faces three main challenges: 1) Raising the STRC dividend rate, which would significantly increase annual costs; 2) Selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which weakens its core narrative; and 3) Issuing new STRC shares below par value, which would structurally increase long-term dividend burdens.

QWhich cryptocurrency among the top 30 assets posted a significant gain last week, and what was the reported reason?

AXLM (Stellar) recorded a significant gain of 12.2%. The increase was attributed to the positive market reaction to Stellar's recently released roadmap focusing on Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, payments, and enterprise settlement solutions.

İlgili Okumalar

Ethena price prediction: Will the $0.08 zone keep ENA’s recovery alive?

The Ethena (ENA) price has risen 14.11% from its July 8 low, recovering the $0.08 resistance zone to trade at $0.082. Despite this recent gain, the overall trend remains bearish, with the token down 94% from its all-time high. Positive developments include the launch of the Robinhood Earn feature, where ENA represented over 70% of user asset allocations, significantly boosting the Robinhood Chain's TVL. However, a large transfer of 1.231 billion ENA ($94 million) between unknown wallets created mixed signals. Technical analysis shows long-term bearish dominance, with price action below key former support. The ongoing bounce from $0.08 requires sustained buying pressure to continue. Key resistance is seen at the $0.105-$0.125 zone. Analysts suggest a potential bounce to that zone could present a selling opportunity, while current price levels offer unclear risk-reward for swing traders. The $0.08 level is crucial for keeping the recovery alive.

ambcrypto33 dk önce

Ethena price prediction: Will the $0.08 zone keep ENA’s recovery alive?

ambcrypto33 dk önce

Claude Accused of Becoming Dumber by the Entire Internet, Anthropic Steps In to Reveal: It’s Not the Model That’s Tricking You

When users complained that Claude was "getting dumber," the root cause wasn't the AI model itself. In an official blog post, Anthropic clarified the critical difference between two key settings in Claude Code: Model and Effort. Model refers to the core "brain"—the fixed, trained weights of a specific AI (like Sonnet, Opus, or Fable). Changing the Model addresses *capability* ("can it do this?"), but its knowledge is static post-training. Effort, however, controls the AI's *approach and thoroughness* for a specific task. A higher Effort level instructs Claude to read more files, run tests, perform verification, and complete multi-step reasoning before responding, significantly increasing its "work output" for that job. Conversely, low Effort leads to quicker, less thorough replies. This distinction explains the March 2024 uproar where users experienced a sudden drop in Claude's performance. The cause was not a model change but Anthropic quietly lowering the *default* Effort setting from "high" to "medium" to reduce latency, which was later reverted. The key insight is that a smaller, capable model (like Sonnet) on high Effort can often outperform a larger, more powerful model (like Opus) on low Effort for many tasks. The article provides a practical troubleshooting framework: if Claude makes an error, first check the context and instructions. If it seems to skip necessary steps or validations, increase Effort. If it diligently attempts the task but fails conceptually or makes consistent factual errors despite good context, then consider switching to a more capable Model. The takeaway is a shift in focus: effective AI programming is less about always choosing the "strongest" model and more about intelligently *orchestrating* models and effort levels—acting like a project manager to assign the right "brain" with the right level of diligence for each job, optimizing both results and cost.

marsbit39 dk önce

Claude Accused of Becoming Dumber by the Entire Internet, Anthropic Steps In to Reveal: It’s Not the Model That’s Tricking You

marsbit39 dk önce

Will the Ethereum Foundation Evolve into a 'Mascot'? Diversified Organizations Are Fragmenting Its Functions

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) is undergoing significant internal turmoil and functional erosion. Following its largest-ever layoff of 54 staff (20% of its workforce) and a major organizational restructuring announced in June, its Protocol Support Team has been officially dissolved. This comes alongside the high-profile resignation of key figures like co-executive director Xiaowei Wang, bringing senior departures this year to at least eight. Criticism of EF's rigid structure, opaque decision-making, and perceived lack of a clear value narrative for ETH has intensified within the community. The layoffs have catalyzed the emergence of independent, non-profit organizations like Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, founded by former EF researchers and members. These entities are now taking on core functions such as protocol research/development and institutional adoption, effectively fragmenting the EF's traditional leadership role. Concurrently, EF's security team is adapting to technological change, deploying specialized AI agents to audit Ethereum's codebase, which successfully discovered a critical vulnerability (CVE-2026-34219). While EF states AI complements rather than replaces researchers, it signals a potential future shift in its operational model. Faced with these challenges—internal restructuring, talent drain, the rise of competing organizations, and AI integration—the Ethereum Foundation appears to be stepping back from a central commanding role. Analysts and community observers speculate it may increasingly transition towards a symbolic "ecosystem mascot" function, while decentralized initiatives drive Ethereum's future growth and institutional adoption.

marsbit1 saat önce

Will the Ethereum Foundation Evolve into a 'Mascot'? Diversified Organizations Are Fragmenting Its Functions

marsbit1 saat önce

Is LIT’s burn worth $42 million enough to spur the altcoin’s next big rally?

Lighter (LIT) has experienced significant volatility, rallying 18% over the past week but facing potential overbought conditions. After a warning of a correction toward $2, the price dipped to $2.3 before recovering to $2.60. A major catalyst was the recent burn of over 15.6 million LIT tokens (worth ~$42 million), representing 6.3% of the circulating supply, which may have spurred short-term bullish momentum toward $3. Technical analysis on the 1-day chart shows a bearish divergence with the RSI, signaling a potential pullback despite strong demand. The key Fibonacci retracement level to watch is $2.30. On the 4-hour chart, LIT is forming a range between $2.31 and $2.68. The suggested strategy is to wait for a breakout above $2.70 to target $3.06-$3.21, or a breakdown below $2.31 for a likely deeper retracement below $2. In summary, while bullish momentum persists, traders should monitor the range boundaries for the next directional move.

ambcrypto3 saat önce

Is LIT’s burn worth $42 million enough to spur the altcoin’s next big rally?

ambcrypto3 saat önce

Nearly a Hundred Players Rush into Embodied Data: With 4.47 Billion Yuan in Financing in One Year, Who Can Really Make Money by 'Selling Data'?

The domestic embodied AI data industry has attracted nearly 100 players, with 70 focused on data collection and 27 on data infrastructure. In the past year, 15 independent embodied data service providers raised approximately 4.47 billion yuan. Despite this growth, the sector remains early-stage, fragmented, and faces significant challenges. Data collection methods are diverse, categorized into four main routes: teleoperation of real robots, human demonstration without a robot (using motion capture, exoskeletons, etc.), simulation synthesis, and distillation from internet videos. Most companies (43%) adopt hybrid approaches, combining multiple routes, as no single method can meet all training needs. Teleoperation alone is pursued by 31% of players, often by state-owned platforms and robot companies, while newer firms favor asset-light, no-hardware human demonstration. Independent data service providers now form the largest player group (40%), indicating the emergence of a distinct industry segment rather than just a subsidiary function for robot makers. Two-thirds of all players are "embodied-native" startups, while one-third are companies that pivoted from fields like AI data annotation, which are more prevalent in the data infrastructure layer. Current annual industry capacity is estimated at 1.6-1.8 million hours plus 70-80 million data points, with a short-term goal to increase this 15-20 fold within 1-3 years. Data collection factories are spread across 20 provinces in China, concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Pearl River Delta regions. Financially, the 4.47 billion yuan raised in the past year pales compared to the 43.8 billion yuan raised by the broader embodied intelligence sector in just the first half of 2026, highlighting that data remains a less "sexy" bet for investors. The 15 funded independent providers show clear stratification: a top tier led by a unicorn (Lightwheel Intelligence, 3.1 billion yuan), a middle tier of 11 firms raising tens to hundreds of millions, and an early-stage tier of 3 companies. Sixty-nine investment institutions have participated, but none have made concentrated bets, reflecting uncertainty about viable business models. Over half of these funded companies are less than a year old, most are at pre-A or A rounds, and profitability remains largely unproven. In summary, the embodied data industry has become an independent track creating jobs and local economic activity. However, it is still nascent, with unformed consensus, unsolved problems, and unproven business models. The coming 1-2 years will be a critical validation window to see if companies can build sustainable, profitable businesses purely by "selling data."

marsbit4 saat önce

Nearly a Hundred Players Rush into Embodied Data: With 4.47 Billion Yuan in Financing in One Year, Who Can Really Make Money by 'Selling Data'?

marsbit4 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot