a16z Predicts Decentralized Payments to Become Mainstream, and My Judgment Is as Follows

Odaily星球日报2025-12-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-12-12 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

a16z's report "17 Big Ideas for Crypto in 2026" predicts decentralized payments will become mainstream, highlighting that stablecoin transaction volume in 2024 reached $46 trillion—20 times that of and nearing three times Visa's. Odaily Planet Daily argues that 2026 will be a turning point for crypto and crypto payments, offering five key judgments: 1. Stablecoin gateways will undergo revolutionary changes, with payment giants launching networks (like Stripe-backed Tempo) for smoother, cheaper fiat-to-crypto conversions, enabling true peer-to-peer electronic payments. 2. RWA assets will integrate with stablecoins, driving on-chain lending. Tokenized real-world assets, using stablecoins like USDC or USDT for pricing, will enhance liquidity and enable new financial products like perpetual contracts. 3. The "internet as a bank" model will emerge, combining AI Agents, the x402 protocol, and stablecoins. This will merge online and on-chain payments, allow tokenization of digital products, and stimulate the virtual economy through efficient, direct creator payments. 4. The era of universal finance will begin, lowering investment barriers. Tokenized stocks and fractional ownership will let people invest small amounts in assets like SpaceX IPO shares, supported by AI advisors. 5. The stablecoin market will see intense competition ("hundred-army war"), with more players like OSL Group and Jupiter launching their own stablecoins, potentially bringing user benefits through subsidie...

Original / Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author / Wenser (@wenser2010)

Yesterday, the "industry's top narrative VC" a16z released a heavyweight report titled "17 Big Idea Trends Most Anticipated in Crypto for 2026," covering areas such as stablecoins, tokenization, payments and finance, privacy, security, AI, and agents. It notably mentioned that "stablecoin trading volume reached $46 trillion in 2024, a figure that is 20 times the trading volume of PayPal and nearly 3 times that of Visa."

Considering recent news such as OSL Group's upcoming launch of the stablecoin USDGO, Jupiter's stablecoin JupUSD set to launch next week, and YouTube supporting US creators receiving revenue via PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD, Odaily Planet Daily boldly asserts that 2026 will become a "critical turning point" for the crypto industry and the crypto payments sector. Based on the above information, we make the following judgments on the future direction of crypto payments.

Judgment One: Stablecoin "Gateways" Undergo Revolutionary Changes

As mentioned in the a16z report—"The core problem that remains unsolved is: how to connect these digital dollars to the financial systems people use every day — i.e., the on-ramps and off-ramps for stablecoins."

Current mainstream methods include exchange C2C trading, payment giant conversion networks, and stablecoin issuer channels. Next year, numerous payment giant-backed stablecoin networks will gradually launch (such as the Tempo network supported by Stripe and Paradigm). At that time, stablecoin "gateways" will achieve deeper integration with traditional financial markets, daily payment networks, and life transaction scenarios.

If domestic mobile payments solved a series of usage scenarios, cost compression, and promotion issues through QR code solutions and digital red packets, then the introduction of regional and global payment networks by payment giants will provide a more convenient user experience for stablecoin on/off-ramping, lower transfer transaction costs, and a smoother fiat-to-stablecoin conversion process.

Furthermore, the B2B merchant usage level is also expected to usher in a new growth period as regulatory frameworks are further improved, mobile applications gradually enrich, and payment efficiency further increases.

Satoshi Nakamoto's vision of a "Peer-to-Peer" electronic cash system will be realized through the vehicle of stablecoins.

Judgment Two: Integration of RWA Assets and Stablecoins Spurs On-Chain Lending Business

At the crossroads of DeFi and TradFi, RWA assets are of paramount importance.

However, in the past, RWA assets were limited by the complexity of off-chain assets and fixed product forms, making it difficult to achieve complete "on-chain transformation"; meanwhile, the anchored value and price presentation of RWA assets often varied due to regional differences, time changes, and industry disparities.

As traditional financial markets face the impact of liquidity devaluation brought about by interest rate cuts, the stablecoin system may facilitate the transformation of the on-chain and off-chain trading systems for RWA assets.

In other words, in 2026, RWA assets may be priced in stablecoins through banking systems and payment networks, enabling exploration in areas such as RWA contracts, RWA lending, and RWA asset acquisitions.

The application submitted by Nasdaq to the U.S. SEC this year for tokenized stock trading was already a sign of things to come. Next year, based on Circle's USDC, the "first publicly listed stablecoin," and Tether's newly launched USAT stablecoin, the "stablecoin leader," there may be more scenarios where stablecoins are used to purchase traditional financial market products and participate in traditional financial market交易流程及更多环节的交易流程和更多环节.

As mentioned in the a16z report, "perpetual contracts" are expected to provide deeper liquidity for RWA assets, and crypto-native RWA asset tokenization will further develop; after meeting compliance and standardization requirements, on-chain lending business will also experience rapid growth.

Judgment Three: The Internet-as-a-Bank Model Arrives, AI Agent, x402 Protocol, Stablecoins Offer More Possibilities

This change may become the new starting point for the most anticipated "wave of massive crypto adoption" in 2026.

Just like "YouTube新增通过 PayPal 稳定币向创作者支付收入" (YouTube新增通过 PayPal stablecoin to pay creators revenue), with the rapid development of AI Agents, the gradual expansion of the x402 protocol, and its penetration into more life, work, and business scenarios, stablecoins and cryptocurrencies will "financially transform" the entire internet, bringing a series of astonishing changes—

1. Online and on-chain payments merge, transaction efficiency greatly improves. From the previous "what you see is what you get" to the future "what you think is what you buy," the combination of AI Agents and stablecoin payment systems will meet people's various internet shopping needs. Product筛选、需求的洞察、支付的便捷性 (screening, demand insight, payment convenience) will all undergo earth-shaking changes.

2. Internet products can be tokenized and quantifiably paid for. Based on the expansion of stablecoin payment networks, numerous internet products (tangible and intangible) will be quantifiable with stablecoins. With convenient on/off ramps, buyers and sellers can exchange goods and currency efficiently without intermediaries, lossy links, or long turnover periods.

3. The virtual digital economy is further stimulated. Whether current YouTube creators or various professional roles providing online virtual services, they will further supplement the online economy of the internet, and the stablecoin payment system will become a more efficient major option. Compared to previous behaviors like buying peripherals, offline support, and physical meetings to support virtual idols, convenient and quick "direct payment" may become the choice for more people.

Judgment Four: Stepping into the Era of全民金融 (Universal Finance), Investment Thresholds Lower Further

This is perhaps the most直观且影响深远 (intuitive and far-reaching) aspect during the further development of stock tokenization and the stablecoin system.

Limited by the structure and regulatory policies of past banking systems and securities trading markets, ordinary individual users often found it difficult to participate in economic financial markets and capital efficiency markets with low thresholds, low costs, and small shares. In the next year and the future, as stock tokenization platforms, processes, and regulatory environments become more mature, combined with AI investment advisor roles and reference opinions, everyone will become an indispensable and closely related part of the financial system.

In the not-too-distant 2026, buying $1 worth of SpaceX IPO shares might become possible; and putting one's limited funds into DeFi capital platforms jointly launched by banking systems and crypto-native projects with slightly higher annualized yields than government bonds might also be a good choice.

Most importantly, asset tokenization and fragmentation will further improve capital utilization efficiency and inject deeper liquidity into the global economic financial market.

At that time,借助代币化系统与稳定币网络 (with the help of tokenization systems and stablecoin networks), everyone will be a mesh in the financial network. Of course, this will inevitably be accompanied by risks, but it will also truly give the right to invest to each individual to make their own choices.

Judgment Five: The Stablecoin Hundred Armies War Will Continue, User Dividends Always Exist

In 2025, the main theme of the crypto industry is mainstream adoption, regulatory compliance, and institutional普及化 (popularization). Next year, it will be an even more fiercely competitive "Stablecoin Hundred Armies War".

This year's competition from Hyperliquid's native stablecoin code USDH was just a warm-up and a small glimpse of the great混战 (melee) in the stablecoin industry next year. Compared to USDT, Circle's USDC may face more intense competition and suffer further market share erosion.

Just like the previous "外卖百团大战" (Food Delivery Hundred Armies War) and "网约车百团大战" (Ride-hailing Hundred Armies War), the white-hot competition on the supply side will, to a certain extent, bring asymmetric benefits to the demand side. Ordinary users are expected to continue receiving good stablecoin usage subsidy benefits or other economic incentive returns.

The fact that Hong Kong compliant exchange OSL Group and Solana ecosystem comprehensive platform Jupiter are纷纷“染指”稳定币 (successively "dabbling in" stablecoins) also means that more compliant institutions and crypto service platforms will launch their own native stablecoins to gain有利地位 (favorable positions) in payment networks, commercial revenue, and user growth.

İlgili Sorular

QWhat is the core problem that a16z's report highlights regarding stablecoins and the traditional financial system?

AThe core problem is how to connect digital dollars (stablecoins) with the everyday financial systems people use, specifically the on and off ramps for stablecoins.

QAccording to the article, what is one major change expected for RWA (Real World Assets) in 2026?

ARWA assets are expected to be priced in stablecoins through banking systems and payment networks, enabling exploration in RWA contracts, lending, and asset acquisitions.

QHow does the article suggest AI Agent and stablecoin payment networks will transform internet commerce?

AThey will merge online and on-chain payments, significantly improving transaction efficiency and enabling a 'see it, buy it' to 'think it, buy it' model for internet shopping.

QWhat significant shift in investment accessibility does the article predict for the near future?

AInvestment门槛 will be lowered, allowing individuals to participate in financial markets with small amounts (e.g., buying $1 of SpaceX IPO stock) through tokenized platforms and AI advisors.

QWhy does the article describe the upcoming period as a 'stablecoin hundred armies war'?

ABecause numerous compliant institutions and crypto service platforms are expected to launch their own native stablecoins, leading to intense competition for market share in payment networks and user growth.

İlgili Okumalar

Is AI Creating a New Class of 'Information Poor'?

AI is generating a new kind of "information poverty." The core issue isn't that AI denies answers to the poor; it's that it provides abundant, cheap, and plausible-sounding answers to everyone. This availability shifts the true scarcity from obtaining answers to possessing the **judgment to evaluate them** and the access to turn them into real-world opportunities. New information poverty thus describes those who have AI tools and outputs, but lack the complementary skills, authorization, and contextual experience to critically assess and act on them. Research reveals a multi-layered divide: access to AI is stratified by income and platform design (e.g., premium vs. free, embedded tools). In workplaces, usage heavily favors higher-paid, more experienced, or formally trained employees, with AI often automating entry-level tasks that were traditional stepping stones. Crucially, the heaviest users are often mid-career professionals whose existing expertise allows them to effectively judge and leverage AI outputs, while novices risk over-relying on them without building judgment. While controlled experiments show AI can significantly boost low-skilled workers' performance, real-world adoption and benefit are constrained by unequal social and organizational structures. Historically, general-purpose technologies first reward those with existing complementary capital. AI, by affecting judgment-based work, may accelerate and deepen this initial inequality gap, even if it narrows over decades. The danger lies in the illusion of competence it creates, potentially stunting the very critical thinking needed in an era where judgment is paramount.

marsbit3 dk önce

Is AI Creating a New Class of 'Information Poor'?

marsbit3 dk önce

Jensen Huang 'Saves' South Korean Stock Market: Locks In SK Hynix Memory, Chip Shortage to Continue

On June 5th, South Korea's stock market experienced a sharp decline, with major chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix dropping nearly 10%. Amidst the turmoil, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's visit to Seoul played a dramatic role in boosting market sentiment. Following a dinner meeting with SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung, Huang confirmed that NVIDIA's new Vera CPU will utilize SK Hynix DRAM. The companies announced a multi-year technical partnership to co-develop next-generation memory for NVIDIA's AI infrastructure, covering products from data centers to personal AI and robotics. This collaboration extends beyond memory supply. SK Hynix is integrating NVIDIA's AI and Omniverse platform into its own semiconductor design and manufacturing processes, including computational lithography and creating digital twins of its fabrication plants for autonomous operation. While strengthening ties with SK Hynix, NVIDIA is diversifying its supply chain for the upcoming HBM4 memory, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all certified as suppliers for its Vera Rubin platform. Despite this, Huang warned that the global chip shortage, driven by relentless demand from AI factory construction, is expected to persist for several years across the entire supply chain. His visit underscores NVIDIA's systematic effort to deepen integration with South Korea's broader tech industry.

marsbit56 dk önce

Jensen Huang 'Saves' South Korean Stock Market: Locks In SK Hynix Memory, Chip Shortage to Continue

marsbit56 dk önce

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day: Does "Black Friday" Burst the U.S. Stock Market Bubble?

The Nasdaq plunged 4.18% on June 5, 2026, its worst single-day drop in over a year, as a much stronger-than-expected US jobs report triggered fears of economic overheating and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The selloff, centered on high-valuation tech and AI stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, spread across major indices. The article examines whether this signals a market top. The strong May non-farm payrolls data, nearly double expectations, pushed bond yields higher, directly hurting rate-sensitive tech stocks. This exposed vulnerabilities in the crowded AI trade, where valuations had soared on narratives of infinite growth, despite emerging signs of slowing order momentum and corporate AI monetization challenges. Prior to the drop, market indicators flashed warning signs: historically high valuations (e.g., Shiller CAPE ratio near 39.5), extreme bullish sentiment, and high levels of leverage. Technical charts showed key support levels being breached. Wall Street is divided on the outlook. Bears, citing risks of "stagflation" and AI bubble comparisons to the dot-com era, warn of a potential significant correction. Bulls view the drop as a healthy correction within a bull market, underpinned by a strong economy and expected corporate earnings growth of around 7% in 2026. The immediate future hinges on upcoming key events: the May CPI inflation data and the mid-June FOMC meeting. Their outcomes will critically shape market expectations for the Fed's rate path. The article concludes that conditions for a major market top are aligning, marking a fragile transition from narrative-driven gains to a phase demanding validation from macroeconomic data and corporate fundamentals. Caution is advised.

marsbit1 saat önce

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day: Does "Black Friday" Burst the U.S. Stock Market Bubble?

marsbit1 saat önce

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day, Did 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?

The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 4.18% on June 5, its biggest single-day drop since April 2025, triggering widespread debate over whether the U.S. stock market has peaked. The sell-off was sparked by a stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which fueled fears of economic overheating and pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a sharp rise in Treasury yields. The AI sector, the primary driver of the recent bull market, suffered severe losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashing over 10%. Stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron led the decline. Concerns are mounting about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and high valuations, with signs of order cuts for next-generation chips emerging. Analyses point to several warning signs: historically high market valuations (e.g., elevated Shiller CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator), extreme bullish sentiment indicators, and significant insider selling. The sell-off also caused a key technical breakdown, with the S&P 500 breaking below its short-term moving average and testing its 200-day moving average. Wall Street is divided on the outlook. Bears warn this could be the start of a bubble deflation or a "stagflation" scenario, while bulls view it as a healthy, overdue correction within a bull market driven by solid corporate earnings growth. A more moderate view suggests the easy liquidity-driven rally is over, and markets are entering a phase of fundamental stock-picking with potential for consolidation. The immediate future hinges on key upcoming events: the May CPI report and the mid-June FOMC meeting. Their outcomes will be critical in determining whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a more significant trend reversal. The consensus is that the era of one-directional market gains may be ending, requiring increased investor caution.

Odaily星球日报1 saat önce

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day, Did 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?

Odaily星球日报1 saat önce

The First Case on AI Agents: What Was Adjudicated?

"The First 'Agent' Ruling: What Was Decided?" On April 30, the Guangzhou Internet Court issued a ruling—China's first behavior preservation order in the intelligent agent (AI agent) field. The defendant, an open-source AI agent software, was ordered to stop downloads, cease actions that bypassed a platform's technical protection measures, and delete related tutorials and data. The core issue: the software used the operating system's "accessibility service" permissions to automate user interactions within other apps without those platforms' authorization. This mirrors a recent US case where Amazon sued Perplexity for similar reasons—bypassing Amazon's API to directly scrape and interact with its pages—and won a preliminary injunction. Both rulings establish a crucial legal boundary for the AI agent era: agents cannot operate unchecked. The article argues the fundamental legal principle emerging is one of **dual authorization**. An AI agent requires both **user consent** AND **platform consent** to operate legitimately within that platform's ecosystem. Bypassing platform rules through system-level permissions, even with user permission, undermines platform responsibilities for content moderation, data security, and user privacy, creating liability issues. The piece uses the evolution of "Doubao Phone" (an AI-integrated smartphone) as a case study. Its initial, aggressive version that bypassed platform controls faced roadblocks. Its upcoming 2.0 version is reportedly pivoting to negotiate API access and authorization deals with major platforms (like Alibaba's ecosystem), seen as a strategic adaptation to the new regulatory reality. A global trend is identified: the era of unregulated, "wild west" growth for AI agents is ending, replaced by a **compliance race**. This raises barriers to entry, as securing platform authorizations becomes a new cost. Open-source status is also not a legal shield if the code facilitates bypassing technical protections. In conclusion, these first rulings target not the largest, but the most **aggressive and representative** cases. By setting precedent with them, regulators are efficiently steering the entire industry towards a new, more regulated operating paradigm defined by dual authorization and platform cooperation.

marsbit1 saat önce

The First Case on AI Agents: What Was Adjudicated?

marsbit1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot
Futures
活动图片