Сезон альткоинов приближается на фоне роста ликвидности и регуляторной ясности

cryptonews.ru2025-12-30 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-12-30 tarihinde güncellendi

Ранее геополитическая нестабильность и фискальная неопределённость в США спровоцировали распродажи в сегменте альткоинов. Однако, как отмечается в отчёте, текущие рыночные тенденции способны запустить «долгожданный сезон альткоинов».

«По мере распространения регуляторной ясности на альткоины капитал начинает перераспределяться в пользу проектов с реальной экономической полезностью и устойчивыми токеномиками. Некоторые секторы уже демонстрируют признаки этого перехода», — пишет Sygnum.

Отчёт также фиксирует снижение доминирования биткоина, которое достигло максимума с 2021 года под влиянием геополитических и торговых факторов, но затем упало более чем на 6% из-за оттока капитала в альткоины.

График доминирования биткоина. Источник: TradingView

Биткоин обновляет исторические максимумы на фоне дефицита предложения

Тренды ликвидности биткоина остаются «крайне благоприятными»: дисбаланс спроса и предложения привёл к тому, что крупнейшая по рыночной капитализации криптовалюта установила новые рекорды. 14 июля BTC достиг отметки выше $123 000.

«Активы под управлением спотовых биткоин-ETF превысили $160 млрд, при этом только за последний квартал было накоплено более 110 тыс BTC», — отмечает Sygnum. Ethereum (ETH) следует за биткоином, демонстрируя сокращение биржевых балансов, приток средств в ETF и около 30% ликвидного предложения в стекинге.

Приток средств в ETF Ethereum продолжается. Источник: SoSoValue

Позиции Ethereum укрепились после успешного обновления Pectra, которое «расширило лимиты стекинга и внесло ряд улучшений в протокол». Дополнительным стимулом стала регуляторная ясность: SEC подтвердила, что стейкинг Ethereum не подпадает под законодательство о ценных бумагах.

Sygnum заявляет, что ETH «окончательно преодолел долгосрочный нисходящий тренд», чему способствовал рост институционального спроса. Sharplink планирует инвестировать $1 млрд в Ethereum, а Wall Street-гиганты, включая BNY Mellon и Société Générale, запускают новые инициативы по токенизации и выпуску стейблкоинов на его базе. Отдельно отмечается стейблкоин с номиналом $1, поддерживаемый Дональдом Трампом.

Децентрализованные биржи захватили 30% рынка

В прошлом квартале децентрализованные биржи (DEX) достигли рекордной доли в 30% от общего объёма спотовых криптовалютных торгов. Росту способствовал ажиотаж вокруг мемкоинов, поднявший обороты DEX до $530 млрд. Лидером стал PancakeSwap на BNB Chain, а Solana-протокол PumpSwap быстро обошёл Raydium.

Объёмы DeFi-кредитования также достигли исторического максимума — $70 млрд, а доля ликвидного стейкинга превысила 30% от предложения ETH.

«Рыночный ралли особенно выгоден сегменту DeFi-кредитования: объёмы активных займов на Ethereum обновили рекорды, так как инвесторы наращивают аппетиты к риску и используют кредитное плечо», — пишет Sygnum.

Вместе с тем банк предупреждает, что текущий импульс альткоинов может спровоцировать новый пузырь мемкоинов, который в прошлом нередко заканчивался резкой коррекцией.

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