Исследователь спрогнозировал «сдержанный» рост биткоина до $160 000

cryptonews.ru2024-12-27 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-06-27 tarihinde güncellendi

Аналитик CryptoQuant Аксель Адлер-младший представил «консервативный» прогноз цены первой криптовалюты — рост до $160 000.

During each of the three major rallies, long-term holders (LTH) consistently built up their positions before strong growth.

The first time this happened was around $28K: the increase in LTH share relative to STH over 1-2 months set the stage for a breakout to $60K.
The second… pic.twitter.com/2sKWpUlnO5
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 26, 2025

По его наблюдениям, в последние три бычьих фазы долгосрочные инвесторы (LTH) активно накапливали позиции перед началом сильного роста.

Впервые это наблюдалось на уровне $28 000, отметил Адлер-младший. Тогда рост доли LTH по сравнению с STH в течение 1-2 месяцев предшествовал скачку цены биткоина до $60 000.

Второй раз аналогичное накопление происходило на отметке $60 000 в фазе консолидации и стало импульсом для движения к $100 000.

«Сейчас, у отметки $100 000, вновь наблюдается устойчивый рост соотношения LTH/STH. Этот этап может продлиться 4-8 недель. После этого, подобно прошлым циклам, возможен резкий разворот вверх», — пояснил эксперт.

Он добавил, что «при более сдержанном прогнозе» с мультипликатором 1,6 целевой уровень следующей волны роста — около $160 000.

HODL!

На фоне боковика аналитики Santiment констатировали снижение настроений розничных инвесторов.

📊 With crypto moving sideways, retail optimism toward Bitcoin & Ethereum has died down a bit. Meanwhile, XRP sentiment is currently at a 17-day high, in terms of positive vs. negative commentary. This has happened after a $50M settlement between Ripple & the SEC was stalled. pic.twitter.com/zJctKgEiPf
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) June 27, 2025

С другой стороны, объем неликвидного предложения цифрового золота с начала года вырос с 13,9 млн BTC до 14,37 млн BTC, согласно данным Glassnode.

Динамика объема неликвидного предложения. Данные: Glassnode, CoinDesk.

Число монет в обращении составляет ~19 880 000. Таким образом, доля неликвидного предложения составляет около ~72%.

Этот показатель представляет собой удельный вес биткоинов, принадлежащих участникам с низкой ончейн-активностью. В первую очередь, это долгосрочные инвесторы и владельцы холодных кошельков. Такие монеты фактически исключены из оборота, снижая объем доступных для торговли активов и, следовательно, потенциальное давление продаж.

Тенденция к увеличению неликвидного предложения часто отражает уверенность инвесторов в будущих перспективах первой криптовалюты, а также популярности нарратива о «тихой гавани» и цензуроустойчивом средстве сохранения стоимости.

Напомним, аналитик CoinDesk Омкар Годбоул рассмотрел на графике паттерн «Бычий флаг», указывающий на возможный рост до $140 000 и выше.

Вот те «крест». Какие ончейн-индикаторы работают, а какие — не очень

İlgili Okumalar

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Traders

Kraken is preparing to launch CFTC-regulated perpetual futures contracts for U.S. traders on its Kraken Pro platform, leveraging the regulatory framework from its Bitnomial acquisition. This move aims to bring a core but high-risk crypto derivatives product, historically accessed offshore, into the U.S. regulated market. The initiative is part of a broader shift toward more regulated crypto derivatives access onshore. If successful, it could attract trading activity back to compliant venues, though its ultimate impact depends on Kraken's ability to provide competitive liquidity, spreads, and execution quality. The launch highlights the evolving competition among exchanges to serve U.S. traders seeking sophisticated tools within a regulated structure.

bitcoinist33 dk önce

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Traders

bitcoinist33 dk önce

ANSEM jumps 13% as holders nearly triple – Can memecoin keep rallying?

The Solana memecoin ANSEM surged over 13% in 24 hours, rebounding after a brief correction following its market cap surpassing $100 million. The token's price remains supported by a rising trendline established since late June. However, analysts note momentum indicators like the MACD and True Strength Index are weakening on lower timeframes, signaling potential fading bullish strength. Key concerns center on tokenomics. The initial allocation concentrated 60% of the 1 billion token supply with the influencer Ansem, raising questions about long-term supply control despite a subsequent airdrop. Holder count nearly tripled to over 92,000 in three days, fueled by community anticipation of further distributions. The article highlights risks associated with new memecoins, citing an incident where a trader permanently lost $226,000 worth of ANSEM by mistakenly sending it to the contract address. While the token is currently above key support, the combination of concentrated holdings, speculative trading driven by influencer branding, and weakening momentum suggests traders should watch for a potential shift in market direction. A break below the trendline support could trigger a deeper correction.

ambcrypto50 dk önce

ANSEM jumps 13% as holders nearly triple – Can memecoin keep rallying?

ambcrypto50 dk önce

TRON Sets Transaction and Active Address Records Driven by Stablecoin Settlements

The TRON network achieved new usage records in June, driven primarily by stablecoin settlement activity. Total transactions exceeded 385 million, while active wallet addresses reached 26.9 million. This growth, centered on stablecoins like USDT, highlights a significant shift in on-chain activity and capital flow. The data, sourced directly from Tronscan, provides a concrete, verifiable snapshot of network adoption rather than speculative price movement. While these metrics confirm strong current usage, the report cautions against directly equating them with guaranteed price performance, noting that execution and regulatory risks remain. The development offers a durable data point for assessing where crypto activity is concentrating.

bitcoinist1 saat önce

TRON Sets Transaction and Active Address Records Driven by Stablecoin Settlements

bitcoinist1 saat önce

TRON Nile Testnet Deploys Quantum-Resistant Signature Cryptography

TRON's Nile testnet has deployed an upgrade implementing quantum-resistant signature cryptography, a proactive step to secure its ledger against potential future decryption threats from quantum computing. This development, confirmed via official sources like nileex.io and github.com, represents a notable Layer 1 security enhancement. The report emphasizes its relevance within the current market focus on stablecoins. Crucially, the upgrade is currently active only on the testnet, not the TRON mainnet. While providing a verified data point for the market to weigh, the article cautions that this single development should be considered alongside broader market factors and does not guarantee any specific price action. It stands as a snapshot of ongoing protocol development.

bitcoinist2 saat önce

TRON Nile Testnet Deploys Quantum-Resistant Signature Cryptography

bitcoinist2 saat önce

BIS Report Compliance Observations: The True Risks of Stablecoins Go Beyond 'De-pegging'

The BIS report, "Anchoring trust in money: innovation beyond stablecoins," highlights that the primary risks of stablecoins extend beyond potential de-pegging. It argues that the core challenge is whether stablecoins can be integrated into a financial system that is identifiable, monitorable, accountable, and regulatable. While acknowledging efficiency gains like faster payments and programmability, BIS emphasizes that money requires an institutional framework—including legal certainty, liquidity support, and financial integrity controls—which many stablecoins currently lack. The report details compliance risks, noting that while blockchain transactions are transparent, address visibility does not equate to identity or purpose clarity. This creates a systemic risk as pseudonymity, non-custodial wallets, and cross-chain bridges can undermine AML/CFT controls. Furthermore, these risks can spill over into the traditional financial system through on- and off-ramps. The future direction, per BIS, is not to prohibit innovation but to embed regulatory rules—such as identity verification and transaction screening—directly into the technological infrastructure of tokenized finance. The key takeaway for compliance is that any new financial instrument must clearly address questions of customer identification, transaction monitoring, accountability, and cross-border rule consistency to be viable as a mainstream payment tool.

marsbit2 saat önce

BIS Report Compliance Observations: The True Risks of Stablecoins Go Beyond 'De-pegging'

marsbit2 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot