SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

Odaily星球日报2024-11-11 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-11-11 tarihinde güncellendi

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尽管Trump当选后还需要2个月才能正式上任，但他胜选的影响已经在地缘政治和资本市场中广泛体现...

尽管 Trump 当选后还需要 2 个月才能正式上任，但他胜选的影响已经在地缘政治和资本市场中广泛体现。加密货币再度成为焦点，在美国部分地区尚未完成计票的同时，BTC 价格已突破 8 万美元，而 Blackrock 的 BTC ETF (IBIT) 在上周四创下 11 亿美元的单日资金流入纪录，就连 ETH ETF 也出现其历史中第三高的单日资金流入。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

IBIT 今年为止的资金流入位居所有美国上市 ETF 的第三高，其资产管理规模已超过 iShares 自己的黄金 ETF，超过 330 亿美元。在这波上涨中，中心化交易所（CEX）在过去一周内清算了超过 8 亿美元的空头期货仓位，这是今年最大规模的空头清算之一，同时随著杠杆资金大量回归，永续合约的资金费率飙升至 30% 左右。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

此外，尽管链上活动疲软，不过传统金融的流入成为稳定的支持因素，稳定币市值今年以来持续稳步回升，已恢复至接近 2022 年的历史高点，稳定币的进一步流入应该会提供更多的保证金资金，随著价格继续反弹，预计杠杆也将继续维持。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

从政治层面来看，考虑到即将上任的政府更倾向于支持加密货币立法，行业对于未来出现更友好的加密货币监管框架越来越乐观。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

回到宏观市场，美国股市忽视了中国刺激政策的失望，继续创下新高，而固定收益市场则因上周四 FOMC 会议的鸽派立场而保持稳定。此外，由于市场在年底前都有望保持风险偏好模式，宏观资产的跨资产波动率已经大幅下降，另一方面，随著 BTC 突破 8 万美元，BTC 和 ETH 的波动率略有回升， 10 万美元的看涨期权再次进入市场焦点。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

本周将迎来 CPI 数据发布，除此之外，本月没有太多其他重要的宏观经济数据。有趣的是，市场定价反映，相较于 CPI 或非农就业报告，Nvidia 的财报发布是一个更重要的风险事件，这表明市场对美联储的立场较有信心，且市场环境也没有明显的负面催化剂。

所以，趁派对还在持续的时候尽情享受吧，但仍要维持谨慎的风险管理。祝各位好运！

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：80K

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