首席叙事官Arthur Hayes项目甄选，Krav能实现病毒式增长吗？

Odaily星球日报2024-02-26 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-02-26 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Krav具备极大的成长空间，但对其营销能力要求非常之高。

原创 | Odaily星球日报

作者 | 南枳

首席叙事官Arthur Hayes项目甄选，Krav能实现病毒式增长吗？

上周，Arthur Hayes 发文阐述了他本人及其投资团队的投资理念——“我宁愿投资一个预期成功概率为 0.01% 、叙事处于病毒式增长阶段的代币，也不愿投资一个预期成功概率为 50% 、叙事已进入常识阶段的代币”并表示“技术并不重要，关键的是叙事”。

在这篇文章中，Hayes 分享了其认为当下最关键的几个叙事，其中 GMX、Pendle 等已成为主流叙事顺利落地，Odaily星球日报将于本文解析基于山寨币的 BTC 合约交易所 Krav Trade，解析其叙事和爆发增长的可能性。

基于山寨币的 BTC 合约交易所 Krav

叙事

在以 BTC、ETH 为代表的主流币，与转瞬即逝的 Meme 代币之间，还存在着广泛的、未上线交易所的、市值达百万到上亿美元的山寨币（Altcoin）。通常此类代币除了发行它们的原生协议外，没有用例支持，基本没有相关的借贷市场和做空市场，用户通过买卖的价差获利，并且资金占用率为 100% ，不能通过 N 倍杠杆来放大资金利用率。

另一方面，牛市背景下 BTC 等主流代币具有较强的上涨预期，而对于资金占用率达 100% 的山寨币而言，二者只能取其一进行投资。

对此，Krav 推出了名为 Quanto 的衍生品，允许用户以其山寨币作为抵押资产，进行 BTC 和 ETH 的合约交易。

Quanto 衍生品

什么是 Quanto？按照 Wikipedia 定义，Quanto 是一种衍生产品，其基础资产以一种货币计价，但衍生产品本身以某种汇率结算在另一种货币中。这种产品对于希望持有外部资产敞口，但又不希望承担相应的汇率风险的投机者和投资者非常有吸引力。

以上定义较为难以理解，此处以 Krav 提供的 UNIBOT 代币池为基础示例讲解：

  • 固定汇率：假设当前 UNIBOT 的价格为 50 USDT，BTC 的价格为 50000 USDT，二者比例为 1: 1000 ；

  • 存入资产：现在用户拥有 1000 枚的 UNIBOT，用户向 Krav 存入这些 UNIBOT；

  • 建立头寸：然后用户可以建立 BTC 的多空头寸，假设用户建立了数量达 2 BTC 的多头头寸，开仓时汇率仍为 1: 1000 ；

  • 退出结算：假设 BTC 上涨了 10% ，则用户头寸价值上升至 2.2 BTC，此时用户选择结算；

  • 按照此前的汇率 1: 1000 ，则用户将获得 200 枚 UNIBOT，不论 UNIBOT 与 BTC 之间的实际汇率在开仓-结算期间如何变化。

综上再次总结 Krav 的 Quanto：以山寨币作为抵押品，进行 BTC/ETH 的多空交易并以固定汇率结算的一种衍生品。

协议参与者

协议中的参与者、参与方式和获利方式如下：

  • 交易者：通过主流币交易获利，需要付出交易费用；

  • LP 提供者：作为交易者的对手方为其提供流动性，通过交易费用获利，如果交易者整体获利，则 LP 发生亏损（反之亦然）。Krav 允许任何人开设任意代币的 LP 池；

  • Krav 代币：质押后将分享交易费用的 30% ，并获得 veKRAV 和奖励乘点。

协议现状

当前 Krav 支持 7 条链上的 Quanto 交易，包括以太坊、Base、Arbitrum、Polygon 等。其中如以太坊上建有 RLB、UNIBOT 的代币池，Base 上有 9 个代币池，Arbitrum 上有去年爆红的 Meme 代币 pogai 等。官方数据页显示，当前提供的流动性达 156 万美元。

首席叙事官Arthur Hayes项目甄选，Krav能实现病毒式增长吗？

例如以太坊上的 RLB，为博彩项目 Rollbit 所发行代币，市值高达 4.76 亿美元，但因为合规问题很难登录大型中心化交易所，组合协议也较少。通过 Krav 的无许可 Quanto 交易，用户能够充分地利用这一代币的庞大市值进行进一步交易。

CoinGecko 数据显示，KRAV 当前的市值为 382 万美元，近三个月涨幅为 63% 。若能够顺利实现叙事的增长，仍有较大的增长空间。

首席叙事官Arthur Hayes项目甄选，Krav能实现病毒式增长吗？

叙事解读

广大的成长空间

如前文所述，除去已上线交易所的主流代币，仍有超百亿市值的山寨币没有登陆交易所，也没有可以利用的组合协议。

而今年比特币现货 ETF 的通过、宏观环境改善预期、比特币减半等多重因素作用下，市场对于 BTC 有着高度预期。

以上两点分别为庞大的需求群体，以及其扎实的交易需求，Krav Trade 确实存在病毒式爆发增长的能力与空间。

挑战与风险

作为开拓式的新协议，最根本的挑战就是用户的引入，山寨币投资者与主流币交易者通常比较割裂，前者通常纯链上操作，后者更习惯于在 CEX 交易。Krav 需要精准地导入愿意同时投资山寨币与主流币的用户，培养其在 Krav 储蓄山寨币资产并交易 BTC/ETH 的习惯。而每个山寨币拥有其各自的社群，推广工作庞大而复杂。

此外 Krav 存在一项底层资产风险，山寨币作为一种波动极大的资产，用户将其作为抵押品进行交易时，容易出现山寨币短时崩盘而爆仓清算的连锁风险，同时还有 Dev Rug 和黑客攻击导致的抵押品爆仓风险。这一点将极大地限制用户的交易规模。

结论

Krav 具备极大的成长空间，但对其营销能力要求非常之高，首席叙事官 Arthur Hayes 的病毒式增长预期能否落地，仍有待观察。

İlgili Okumalar

Soaring Export Data for Memory Chips, Market Is Redefining the Valuation Anchor for Memory Stocks

Korean storage export data for the first 20 days of June shows substantial year-on-year increases in both value and price-per-kilogram for categories like DRAM, NAND, and SSDs. This signals a potential shift beyond simple demand recovery, indicating rising prices and a product mix shift towards higher-value items, possibly influenced by AI infrastructure needs. A key point is that the surge in price-per-kilogram is not simply a uniform chip price hike. It reflects a combination of actual price increases and, more importantly, an export structure increasingly dominated by high-value-density products like HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) and advanced DRAM, which are critical for AI servers. This suggests AI-driven demand may be spilling over from just HBM into broader memory markets. SK Hynix stands to benefit directly due to its leading HBM position. For Samsung and Micron, the implication is potential for greater margin elasticity if the tightness in high-end memory spreads to enterprise SSD and NAND prices. However, the storage sector remains cyclical. Risks include supply expansion, inventory changes, and potential slowdowns in broader AI capital expenditure. Ultimately, while the strong export data supports upward revisions for storage company earnings and fuels discussion of an "AI infrastructure bottleneck premium," a definitive valuation shift from a cyclical to a structural story depends on upcoming quarterly reports. Investors need confirmation from SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron that improvements in average selling prices, product mix, and, crucially,毛利率 are sustained over multiple quarters.

marsbit56 dk önce

Soaring Export Data for Memory Chips, Market Is Redefining the Valuation Anchor for Memory Stocks

marsbit56 dk önce

Why Does SpaceX Have Such a High Valuation Ceiling? The Answer Lies in Musk's Business Blueprint

SpaceX achieved a record-breaking IPO on June 12, 2026, with its market cap surging past $2.1 trillion. This valuation reflects its central role within Elon Musk's expansive, interconnected technological ecosystem. The article details how four core components form a synergistic closed-loop system: 1) **The "Brain" (xAI & Orbital Compute):** xAI provides AI models and massive ground/space-based supercomputing for simulation and decision-making across the system. 2) **The "Neural Logistics Core" (Starlink & Starship):** Starlink's low-latency satellite network enables global data transmission, while Starship's low-cost, reusable launch capacity aims to make large-scale space deployment economically viable. 3) **The "Physical Body" (Tesla & Optimus):** Tesla's manufacturing prowess and energy products support hardware production and power, pivoting toward mass-producing the Optimus humanoid robot for terrestrial and potential space-based labor. 4) **The "Human Interface" (Neuralink & X):** Neuralink seeks direct brain-computer communication, and the X platform provides real-time societal data. Together, these elements create three reinforcing "flywheels": manufacturing/logistics, data-driven iteration, and energy/compute/network synergy. This integrated approach promises lower costs, faster innovation cycles, and potential infrastructure-as-a-service offerings. However, it also concentrates technical, regulatory, and corporate governance risks. Ultimately, SpaceX's high valuation stems from its position as the indispensable infrastructural backbone—handling space transport, global communications, and future orbital computing—tying together Musk's entire vision for a self-reinforcing technological empire.

marsbit1 saat önce

Why Does SpaceX Have Such a High Valuation Ceiling? The Answer Lies in Musk's Business Blueprint

marsbit1 saat önce

Snap, Unprofitable for Nine Years, and a Decade-Long AR Obsession Without Return

Snap's AR Obsession: A Decade of Betting Against the Odds On June 16, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel unveiled the new AR glasses, Specs, priced at $2,195, causing the company's stock (SNAP) to plummet nearly 10%. The launch was met with intense criticism online, with investors questioning why a consistently unprofitable company would stake its future on an expensive product its core young user base can't afford. Snapchat, known for pioneering features like ephemeral Stories and popular AR lenses (like the iconic dog filter), has a history of innovation often copied by rivals like Instagram and Meta. Despite this, it has struggled to translate first-mover advantage into commercial success. Since its 2017 IPO, Snap has reported annual net losses, with a Q1 2026 loss of $89 million. Its stock is down 94% from its 2021 peak, hampered by iOS privacy changes, competition, and a young demographic less attractive to major advertisers. In this challenging context, Spiegel is doubling down on AR. He calls 2026 a "crucible moment," having recently laid off 16% of staff while reportedly investing over $3.5 billion cumulatively in its AR glasses line over nearly a decade. The new Specs represent a significant leap from the 2016 camera-focused Spectacles, offering true AR overlays, gesture control, and standalone operation. However, at $2,195, it faces tough comparisons. While more advanced than Meta's $799 Ray-Ban smart glasses, critics point to its heavier weight, short battery life, and features largely replicable by a smartphone. Facing pressure from investors to cut losses on the Specs project, Spiegel has refused, framing it as essential to Snap's long-term vision. The company finds itself in a paradoxical position: cutting costs while heavily funding a decade-long, unproven bet. Some see Specs as an awkward but necessary step in AR's evolution, akin to early mobile phones. Whether Spiegel is a visionary outlier or a gambler destined to fail remains an open question, highlighting the tension between long-term ambition and short-term market demands.

marsbit1 saat önce

Snap, Unprofitable for Nine Years, and a Decade-Long AR Obsession Without Return

marsbit1 saat önce

Annualized Revenue Exceeds $20 Billion, Kalshi Aims to Become the First Prediction Platform IPO?

Kalshi, a leading U.S. prediction markets platform, is reportedly in early, informal discussions for an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The company's annualized revenue now exceeds $2 billion, fueled by its dominance of over 90% of the domestic prediction market activity. This growth stems from a surge in trading volume—reaching a total of $52.7 billion—and an increase in fee rates, largely driven by sports event contracts like the NBA playoffs and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Monthly active users are approximately 2 million. Kalshi recently raised $1 billion in a funding round led by Coatue Management, valuing the company at $22 billion. It has also expanded its offerings to include Bitcoin perpetual contracts and plans to launch a dedicated trading platform, Kalshi Pro. However, Kalshi's path to an IPO faces significant regulatory hurdles. The core risk involves jurisdictional conflicts, as multiple U.S. states are challenging its operations under local gambling laws. For instance, Arizona has filed criminal charges against the platform, while states like Kentucky have filed lawsuits. Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argue that its event contracts fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction as "swaps." The outcomes of these ongoing legal battles could critically impact Kalshi's core revenue and its IPO timeline. Analysts suggest that while an IPO could theoretically occur by late 2026, a more likely timeframe is late 2027 or 2028, contingent on resolving legal issues and favorable market conditions. If successful, its fundraising could significantly exceed $1 billion, given its current valuation and revenue multiple.

Foresight News1 saat önce

Annualized Revenue Exceeds $20 Billion, Kalshi Aims to Become the First Prediction Platform IPO?

Foresight News1 saat önce

Don't Care if You Know Football or Not, Buying the Draw Is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?

The article analyzes the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage and argues that betting on a draw has been a surprisingly profitable strategy. Based on data from the prediction market Polymarket, a strategy of betting $1000 on a draw for each of the first 40 matches would have yielded a return of over 100%, despite only 13 matches ending in a draw. The core of the strategy is not the frequency of wins, but the high payout when low-probability draws occur, such as Spain's 0-0 draw with Cape Verde, where pre-match odds for a draw were only 5.5%. The article identifies common draw scores, like 1-1, which provide stability, and high-value 0-0 stalemates, where favorites fail to break down resilient defenses. It highlights Group G as an example, where 3 of the first 4 matches ended in draws, illustrating that draws are a tactical part of group stage calculus as teams often prioritize not losing. In conclusion, while strong teams remain favorites on the pitch, the article claims that for traders, betting on draws has so far produced the most significant profits.

Odaily星球日报1 saat önce

Don't Care if You Know Football or Not, Buying the Draw Is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?

Odaily星球日报1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot
Futures
活动图片