Bitcoin price wedged into ‘most divided’ FOMC as Iran war spikes oil prices 8%

cointelegraphPublished on 2026-07-29Last updated on 2026-07-29

Abstract

Bitcoin's price fluctuated near $64,000 amid significant macro pressures. Key factors include a continued selloff in Asian and US stocks, particularly semiconductor and AI sectors, and rising geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which spiked oil prices. This raises inflation concerns ahead of a critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decision are highly divided, with traders awaiting cues from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. BTC price action is currently range-bound between key moving averages, with low trading volumes and declining retail interest since late 2025, as capital shifts toward AI stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed around $64,000 on Wednesday as geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions pressured US stocks.

Key points:

Bitcoin constricts near $64,000 as traders contend with multiple macro headwinds.
Downside in Asian stocks continues to spill over into US markets.
The US Federal Reserve prepares to release its next interest-rate decision, a potential risk-asset volatility catalyst.

Risk-asset hurdles pile up ahead of FOMC meeting

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD halting a local rebound at the Wall Street open, having hit 11-day lows of $62,700 the day prior.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These came as part of a risk-asset rout by a selloff in Asian chip-stocks. This trend continued on Wednesday as markets showed increasing concern over the debt obligations by semiconductor and AI giants.

Renewed nerves over escalation in the US-Iran war added to the headwinds, with US President Donald Trump threatening a “beating” as tit-for-tat strikes continued.

“We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating,” he said in an interview with Fox News.

Oil prices snapped higher as a result, with WTI and Brent crude up 7.6% and 5.4%, respectively. Oil-price hikes could significantly impact trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with inflation concerns having a knock-on effect on interest-rate expectations.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Markets are awaiting the result of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on the federal funds rate. The July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will include a statement and press conference by Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Though Warsh has given less guidance than his predecessor, traders will watch for cues to future policy shifts.

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted split opinions as to the Fed’s move on rates. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed 66.3% odds of current levels of 3.5%-3.75% remaining in place, with a 0.25% hike attracting 33.7%.

“Market expectations for tomorrow’s Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history,” it wrote.

Fed target-rate expectations for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Bitcoin price caught between daily moving averages

Ahead of fresh macro catalysts, BTC price action acted broadly within a range bounded by its 50-day simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

Related: Markets eye Bank of Japan meeting on Friday as yen repeats 40-year US dollar lows

BTC/USD four-hour chart with 21-day, 50-day EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This range had begun in mid-July, with failed breakouts taking advantage of liquidity zones on either side.

The latest data from CoinGlass showed potential liquidations building on either side of the current range, with clusters at $63,500 and $64,900.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Trading volumes, however, remained conspicuously low, with spot-market volume at its lowest levels since July 2023.

“CME open interest remains near multi-year lows, perpetual futures open interest has stalled around 300,000 BTC, and average daily spot volume came in at just $2.2 billion for the month,” crypto analytics company K33 Research added in a bulletin on Tuesday.

Retail investor interest in both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been in decline since the latter’s October 2025 all-time highs. AI stocks have formed a major destination for the investor pivot.

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