多空拉锯依旧焦灼,但这两类账户思路逐渐明朗 | CFTC 比特币持仓周报

FОпубликовано 2022-10-24Обновлено 2022-10-25

Введение

规模最大的经销商账户多头头寸自 246 上升至 258,空头头寸自 2553 上升至 2568。

10 月 22 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报( 10 月 12 日 - 10 月 18 日)显示,比特币标准合约总持仓量自 15756 下降至 14228,最新统计周期内比特币价格「原地踏步」,该时间段内价格极限波动幅度都非常有限,不过市场总体持仓量回吐了前一统计周期的涨幅,回到了两周前的水平。

规模最大的经销商账户多头头寸自 246 上升至 258,空头头寸自 2553 上升至 2568,规模最大的机构账户在最新统计周期内又一次进行了多空双向同步增持,这类账户在过去两个统计周期内偏乐观的态度继续保持,行情横向拉锯没有让这类机构账户产生「自我怀疑」的状况,目前对与后市有望出现一波反弹仍然较为笃定。

资管机构多头头寸自 5902 上升至 5992,空头头寸自 1486 下降至 1158,资管机构在上一统计周期内进行净空调仓后,在最新统计周期内果断转向,进行了明确的净多仓位调整,而且多空双向的持仓水平基本回归到了 10 月 4 日当周的水平,这类账户在最新统计周期内明显乐观的态度虽然与经销商账户达成了阶段性的一致,但是考虑到这类账户在过去两个统计周期内的表现,这种调仓更多是对于后市缺乏判断时的犹豫思路的呈现,不建议对此做过度的看涨解读。

杠杆基金多头头寸自 3722 下降至 2091,该数值创出近 9 个统计周期新低,空头头寸自 8172 下降至 7219。杠杆基金在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步减持,,上一统计周期内的净多调仓思路同样没有能够继续保持,且多头头寸的大幅减持显示这类账户回到了过去一段时间里偏空的状况之中,这类账户在最新统计周期内的思路同样「纠结」。

大户账户多头头寸自 2867 下降至 2489,空头头寸自 746 下降至 528,大户账户在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步减持,考虑到这类账户在上一统计周期内进行了净空调仓,因此大户反而成为了最新统计周期内为数不多「承接」了前一统计周期内多空偏好的账户,这类账户在当前阶段对于后市的判断明显偏空。

散户多头头寸自 1007 上升至 1404,空头头寸自 787 下降至 761,散户在最新统计周期内进行了净多调仓,一改上一统计周期偏空的态度,最新统计周期思路再度转多。

比特币微型合约总持仓量自 20173 上升至 22416。

经销商账户多头头寸自 438 下降至 174,空头头寸自 52 上升至 565,经销商账户在微型合约中进行了净空调仓,这一选择与标准合约中温和的偏多态度有着比较明显的背离,这类账户在近期行情保持极窄空间震荡的环境中,在标准合约中一直进行着偏乐观的操作,不过也同样在通过微型合约进行逆向风险对冲,所以这种仓位调整实际上算是对于过去一段时间里调仓思路的延续。

资管机构账户多头头寸自 89 张下降至 41 张,空头头寸自 1290 张上升至 1314 张,资管机构在微型合约中进行了小幅度的净空调仓,与上一统计调仓方向相反,同样与标准合约调仓方向相反,很清晰的犹豫不决态度展现。

杠杆基金多头头寸自 10809 上升至 12879,空头头寸自 14158 上升至 15343,杠杆基金在微型合约中进行了多空双向同步增持,调仓的状况与资管机构相似,近两个统计周期内在来回拉锯。

大户多头头寸自 5045 下降至 4869,空头头寸自 1514 上升至 1517,大户账户在微型合约中进行了小幅度的净空调仓,这一调仓思路与标准合约达成了一致,可见大户账户在行情停滞的情况下,看空态度的坚定程度正在逐渐上升。

散户多头头寸自 2198 上升至 2302,空头头寸自 1565 下降至 1526,散户在微型合约中进行了净多调仓,幅度有限且同样是没有延续性的来回拉扯,不存在明显的单边指向性信息。

Похожее

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

marsbit51 мин. назад

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

marsbit51 мин. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы
活动图片