veDAO研究院：BTC连续暴涨的背后，大牛市在即？

Odaily星球日报Опубликовано 2023-11-05Обновлено 2023-11-05

Введение

比特币价格已经达到了17个月来的最高点，这是自2022年5月以来的最高水平。这次涨势让很多人措手不及，随着这个“加密货币之王”的稳步上涨，给加密市场带来了牛市的氛围。

比特币价格已经达到了 17 个月来的最高点，这是自 2022 年 5 月以来的最高水平。这次涨势让很多人措手不及，随着这个“加密货币之王”的稳步上涨，给加密市场带来了牛市的氛围。那么推动涨势的原因有哪些？BTC 后续的发展又如何？

之前 veDAO 研究院的文章提到，虽然假新闻让 BTC 的价格经历了一波过山车，但市场情绪积极，后续的趋势将会向好。本篇，veDAO 研究院将带来近期 BTC 涨势相关的原因，以及后续走势的分析。

BTC 价格上升的原因

考虑到加密市场容易受到波动性的影响，不能将一个单一因素视为涨势的唯一原因。在过去的几天里，贝莱德的 BTC 现货 ETF 出现在 DTCC 的网站上，在被短暂删除后又重新添加回来，这也被认为是这次涨势的原因之一。除此之外，还有一些影响力更大的因素：

BTC 减半在即

距离 BTC 减半只有不到 6 个月的时间。加密货币社区预计，这个事件将开启下一个牛市周期。根据分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 等人的观点，现在（BTC 减半前的 6 至 10 个月）是投资山寨币的最佳时机，风投们已经迫不及待地希望开始获得资金支持。

veDAO研究院：BTC连续暴涨的背后，大牛市在即？

在投资者们数着日子期待他们的投资开始增值的时候，BTC 的矿工们则是对该事件感到担忧。矿工的担忧源于该事件将导致挖矿奖励减半，从每个区块的 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC。但对于投资者来说，减半事件是有价值的，因为它减少了新挖出的 BTC 的增长。随着时间推移，矿工的运营成本也在增加。具体而言，挖矿基础设施变得更加复杂和昂贵。其他人抱怨电费上涨，而美国矿工可能会面临 30% 的税收，这引起了更多的不安。这是因为 BTC 哈希算力（解决不同哈希算法时计算机或硬件操作所需的算力）主要集中在美国。

美国银行危机与 BTC

今年 3 月发生的美国银行业危机对 BTC 和加密市场来说成为了一种福音。其中一个最重要的原因是加密货币与美国股市之间缺乏相关性。尽管银行体系在那之后相对稳定了，但当前的市场状况再次暗示着类似的情景正在形成。

  • 美国银行再次受到打击

veDAO研究院：BTC连续暴涨的背后，大牛市在即？

美国华尔街的四大银行——花旗（C）、摩根士丹利（MS）、高盛（GS）和美国银行（BAC）——目前处于自那次银行业危机以来的最低水平。这些银行的年初至今表现显示，目前它们的股价是最低的，甚至比今年 3 月还低。花旗集团的股价自年初以来下跌了 14% ，高盛的跌幅也接近 13% 。摩根士丹利的损失超过这两家，今年以来已经下跌了 16% ，而美国银行则以 23% 的跌幅领先。

  • 加密货币与美国银行呈负相关

尽管美国经济目前的状况并不支持银行或股市的看涨叙事，但加密市场的情况则截然不同。目前 BTC 与标普 500 和纳斯达克指数呈明显负相关，分别为-0.8 和-0.78 。

在 3 月份，随着银行面临巨大压力，BTC 价格与其他加密货币一起上涨，而巧合的是，BTC 现在也在上涨。这使得其他替代币也随之上涨，将整个加密市场的市值推高至 1.244 万亿美元。

从这个角度来看，美国银行机构的亏损正转化为加密货币投资者的利润，这表明资金流向该领域不仅仅受到美国的影响。然而，银行机构的持续亏损可能并非是 BTC 上涨的唯一原因。

巴以冲突的背后，美国国债与 BTC

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 近期发文表示*，当前的经济正受到“全球战争”所影响，这催化了近期美国国债的抛售，随着国债不再安全，投资人正选择 BTC 和黄金作为替代的投资商品。

veDAO研究院：BTC连续暴涨的背后，大牛市在即？

自 2022 年中以来， 2 年期与 30 年期美国国债收益率差值首次转为正值

Arthur Hayes 阐述了对于当前中东地区的紧张局势可能对金融市场产生的影响，他指出随着美国政府持续军援以色列，这将导致美国国债的抛售。他解释道：“如果你是长期持有美国国债的投资者，最令人担忧的事情是美国政府并不认为自己的支出太多。如果美国的国防开支进入荒谬模式，那将有数万亿美元借款用于支持战争机器，这将使得政府需要卖出更多长期债券给投资人以吸纳资金，全球对于美国国债的不信任度将会进一步上升。这就是为什么债券在抛售，收益率上升。”

随着“巴以冲突”和“联准会(FED)暂停加息”推升美国国债收益率创下 16 年来新高，Arthur Hayes 认为，当长期美国国债对投资者不再提供安全性，投资者将寻求替代方案，而此背景下的首选资产正是黄金和 BTC。Arthur Hayes 认为，BTC 以及黄金上涨是因为在美国长期国债急剧下跌的背景下，这不是关于 ETF 是否获批的投机，而是 BTC 对未来美元贬值与战争所导致的高通货膨胀的反应。Arthur Hayes 还提到另一个债券暴跌的原因，当美联储加息循环进入尾声，美国经济又维持正常，投资人也不再有更多动机长持，这也将导致美国国债遭到抛售。

BTC 价格可能因其他因素上涨

veDAO研究院：BTC连续暴涨的背后，大牛市在即？

一群关键投资者也可能是促成这次涨势的原因之一。自 9 月 21 日以来，持有 100 到 1000 BTC 的鲸鱼地址，在一直在积累 BTC。一个月的时间里，这个群体的 BTC 持有量增加了 50, 000 BTC，价值 17 亿美元；这使得他们的持有量从 385 万 BTC 增加到了 390 万 BTC。

BTC 趋势

veDAO研究院：BTC连续暴涨的背后，大牛市在即？

截至撰写本文时，BTC 价格为 34, 572 美元，由于市场动力依然强劲，可能还会上涨。它保持在市场的中高位，上图展示的是从 2023 年初的低点到今年高点的 35, 184 美元进行的评估。

BTC 的价格较 12 月 31 日收盘价 16, 542 美元翻了一番，在上涨过程中突破了 61.8% 斐波那契位点 28, 067 美元，这是一个关键的回撤位。此次反弹的强劲动力也突破了 78.6% 斐波那契水平，至 31, 197 美元。

来自购买量增加的压力可能会推动 BTC 价格继续上涨，具有 35000 美元的看涨目标。在这种情况下，最合理的目标将是斐波那契图表顶部的 35184 美元水平。

但是，如果获利抛售开始，BTC 价格仍然可能出现下跌趋势。在这种情况下，BTC 的支持水平可能在 31, 197 美元左右，或者更可能在 28, 067 美元左右。在最严重的情况下，价格可能下跌到 25, 869 美元的水平。

结语

随着 BTC 价格持续攀升，市场情绪明显高涨。可以说 BTC 减半在即、美国银行业的压力、美国国债收益率上升等多重因素驱动了这轮价格上涨。尽管短期内可能还会有震荡，但从中长期来看，BTC 价格处于上升通道当中。对于投资者而言，如今仍是布局 BTC 的良机。随着减半效应的逐步释放，BTC 或将开启新的牛市周期，值得期待。

引用文档：https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-periphery

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