Vitalik 与 Balaji 的十大预测:加密、AI 与未来秩序

深潮TechFlowОпубликовано 2025-04-25Обновлено 2025-04-25

Введение

旧世界正在崩塌,下一个世界不会建在 DC。它将被编码。在链上。


撰文:Marine,MC² Finance Founder
编译:白话区块链


1:Balaji 称以太坊是加密货币的中左翼。Vitalik 致力于构建公共产品。他追求可编程的平等、去中心化的机构和公平的协调。
Balaji 属于中右翼。他追求选择退出、自主权。以太坊成为「技术官僚左派」的家园。


2:DeFi 正在变得更安全,但尚未完全安全。
Vitalik:「风险正在逼近传统金融。」
Balaji:「你冒着 100% 的损失去获得 5% 的收益。」协议只有在经历危机后才能真正安全,而不仅仅是审计。时间 > 总损失限额。


3:美元并不像你想象的那么安全。「只投资你能承受损失的美元。」这听起来像个梗。但对于阿根廷、尼日利亚和黎巴嫩的数十亿人来说,这已经是事实。稳定币现在是基础设施 ( 而不是实验 )。


4:DeFi 的定义正在改变。
Balaji:「它是系统结束后的接管者。」不是升级,而是替代。始终在线、无边界、可组合。 DeFi 不仅仅是更好的管道。它是价值的不同物理学。( 为此获得热烈掌声 )


5:加密货币不会削弱美元,但它会暴露美元。
Vitalik:99% 的稳定币支持美元。但这会巩固美元的主导地位,直到它不再如此。一旦法定货币首先上线,它就会失去其地理垄断地位。法定货币会像报纸一样消亡 ( 慢慢地,然后一下子全部消亡 )


6:提示将继续存在。
Balaji:「提示就是用英语编程。」这不是一种解决方法,而是一种技能。人工智能不会取代人类,但它会放大最敏锐的人。清晰度=杠杆。


7:AGI?不是上帝,只是一位创始人。
Vitalik:「当 AGI 建立一家盈利的公司时,它就是真实的。」这是可衡量的。实用的。
Balaji 同意:人工智能不是目标寻求,而是模式匹配。世界仍然依靠人类意图运转。


8:DeSci = 医学界的 DeFi。当今的医疗系统从疾病中获利。DeSci 则颠覆了这一点。真理至上。同行验证。科学即代码,而非制药营销。
Balaji 的赌注:DeSci 是制度衰败的真正替代方案。


9:以太坊需要一颗北极星。DAU?价格?TVL?
Vitalik:只要让人们使用它就行。
Balaji:DeFi 是后法定矩阵。一旦价值上线,一切都可以交易。没有银行的流动性。没有边界的市场。( 问了很多问题,我不能透露 xD)


10:系统不会改革。它将被重建。
Balaji 认为互联网与 DC 是对立的。
Vitalik 认为加密货币是一个更公平规则的体系。
两人都同意:旧世界正在崩塌。下一个世界不会建在 DC。它将被编码。在链上。

Похожее

Truth, Bubbles, and Illusions: Looking Back at the 2025 Crypto Report Card

Based on the article "Truth, Bubbles, and Illusions: A Look Back at the 2025 Crypto Report Card," here is a summary of its main points: The author reflects on their 2025 predictions for the crypto market. They admit to being wrong about Bitcoin's peak in Q4, as the cycle held, and wrong about a memecoin or AI agent supercycle, as retail investors favored traditional assets like gold and AI stocks instead. The AI x Crypto narrative saw mixed results with project development but poor token performance, and NFTs were declared "dead." Key insights from 2025 include: 1. **Bitcoin ETFs acted as a floor, not a ceiling:** Massive selling by long-term holders created a $95B supply overhang, causing BTC to underperform. However, its correlation with traditional risk assets fell, which is bullish long-term. 2. **Airdrops are not dead:** Nearly $4.5B was airdropped in 2025 (e.g., Story Protocol, Berachain). The game has shifted towards requiring more focused, high-conviction farming due to points fatigue and better Sybil detection. 3. **Fee switches set a price floor, not an engine for growth:** Token buybacks from fees establish a bottom price but don't guarantee appreciation, as seen with UNI's price action. The market treats everything as a trade. 4. **Stablecoins gained traction for payments, but "proxy trading" was difficult:** Stablecoins like USDT saw real-world adoption for payments. However, investing in related equities (e.g., Circle's IPO) proved challenging, as gains were often sold into. 5. **DeFi is more centralized than CeFi:** High concentration was observed in lending (Aave), L2s (multisigs), and oracles (Chainlink). Conflicts between equity holders (e.g., "Labs") and token holders raised questions about true ownership and governance. The overarching conclusion is that 2025 marked the "death of HODL culture." Everything became a short-term trade with very brief exit windows, and long-term conviction in tokens vanished.

比推11 мин. назад

Truth, Bubbles, and Illusions: Looking Back at the 2025 Crypto Report Card

比推11 мин. назад

A Game with No Winners: How to Break the Deadlock in the Altcoin Market?

The altcoin market is currently trapped in a "four-lose dilemma" due to flawed token distribution models. The prevalent low initial circulation strategy, designed to artificially maintain high fully diluted valuations (FDV), has backfired. It creates a scenario where centralized exchanges, token holders, project teams, and venture capitalists all ultimately suffer. Exchanges face community backlash from poor token performance, holders experience price collapse as supply unlocks, projects damage the industry's fundraising capacity, and VCs see their long-term investment channels deteriorate. Market responses, such as the 100% initial circulation of meme coins and the community-centric MetaDAO model, have failed to provide sustainable solutions, often creating new problems like extreme volatility or alienating talented founders. A potential path forward requires rebalancing interests: exchanges should shift from arbitrary lockups to KPI-based unlocks; holders should demand transparency and control over major decisions without micromanaging; projects must only issue tokens with clear utility and product-market fit; and VCs should stop forcing token launches on every project. The next 12 months will be challenging as the market absorbs the last wave of excess supply from the 2021-2022 funding boom. However, this digestion period, coupled with more selective token launches and evolving standards, could lead to a healthier market. The long-term viability of the altcoin model depends on avoiding a "lemon market" where only failing projects issue tokens, while successful ones opt for traditional equity. Despite current hardships, tokens retain unique advantages for driving growth and building loyal communities when implemented correctly.

marsbit42 мин. назад

A Game with No Winners: How to Break the Deadlock in the Altcoin Market?

marsbit42 мин. назад

Торговля

Спот
Фьючерсы

Популярные статьи

Неделя обучения по популярным токенам (2): 2026 может стать годом приложений реального времени, сектор AI продолжает оставаться в тренде

2025 год — год институциональных инвесторов, в будущем он будет доминировать в приложениях реального времени.

1.6k просмотров всегоОпубликовано 2025.12.16Обновлено 2025.12.16

Обсуждения

Добро пожаловать в Сообщество HTX. Здесь вы сможете быть в курсе последних новостей о развитии платформы и получить доступ к профессиональной аналитической информации о рынке. Мнения пользователей о цене на AI (AI) представлены ниже.

活动图片