Original Author: Biteye
Currently, the SpaceX IPO pricing is preliminarily set at $135 per share, with a planned fundraising scale of approximately $75 billion, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of about $1.77 trillion. This essentially secures its position as the largest IPO in the history of capital markets.
If this scale is ultimately achieved, Musk's net worth is expected to surge by over $220 billion, challenging for the title of the world's first trillionaire.
However, heavy is the head that wears the crown. The reason the SpaceX IPO attracts such attention is not only its potential to become the largest IPO ever but also because the capital markets are already fiercely debating its valuation.
Is SpaceX really worth $1.77 trillion? With an extra $220 billion in his wallet, will Musk be able to sleep soundly?
🌟 The Bull Case: Underwriters Weave a Long-Term Story with Starlink + Rocket Launches + AI
Bulls believe investing in SpaceX is not merely about backing a rocket company but rather about getting an early stake in the future gateway to space infrastructure.
The $1.77 trillion valuation seems high, but if Starlink, low-cost launches, and AI businesses continue to deliver, $135 has a long-term story to support it.
Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs
X Followers: 1.132M | XHunt Rank: 12015 | Global top-tier investment bank, one of the core underwriters for the SpaceX IPO.
Core View: SpaceX's valuation should not be understood solely as a traditional aerospace company; Starlink and future AI business must be incorporated into the long-term growth model.
Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX's revenue in 2028 to be around $160 billion, exceeding $470 billion by 2030.
The AI division is considered the most aggressive part. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's AI-related revenue could reach approximately $322 billion by 2030.
Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley
X Followers: 742K | XHunt Rank: 32049 | Global top-tier investment bank, one of the core underwriters for the SpaceX IPO.
Core View: SpaceX's long-term value stems from the compound growth of "Space + AI," with a future revenue ceiling far higher than traditional aerospace companies.
Morgan Stanley similarly expects SpaceX's 2028 revenue to be around $160 billion.
More aggressive is the long-term forecast: by 2040, Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX's revenue could reach $3.4 trillion, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion.
If you're buying the gateway to space infrastructure for the next decade+, $135 is undervalued, but it will take a long time to realize.
Sacra
An independent research firm focused on private tech companies, specializing in deep-dive company analysis and valuation breakdowns.
Core View: Bullish on the business long-term, but $135 is not a low valuation; it's more like paying upfront for an option on SpaceX transforming from an aerospace company into a space infrastructure platform.
Sacra estimates SpaceX's 2025 revenue at approximately $18.7 billion, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion, already becoming the company's most important profit center.
It believes SpaceX's core advantage lies in vertical integration: building its own rockets, launching them, deploying its own satellites, and controlling terminals and ground networks, creating a cost advantage difficult for competitors to replicate.
If only considering the current Starlink and rocket launch businesses, $135 is not cheap. If one believes SpaceX can further expand from an aerospace company into a comprehensive platform covering satellite internet, low-cost launches, and more space infrastructure, this price becomes easier to accept.
ARK Invest @ARKInvest
X Followers: 816K | XHunt Rank: 1637 | Innovation-focused investment firm led by Cathie Wood, long-term tracker of disruptive technology assets.
Core View: While SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation is high, it's not entirely without support when considering the long-term opportunity through 2030.
ARK Invest's open-source valuation model for SpaceX shows an expected enterprise value of approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030. According to its model, the bull case scenario is around $3.1 trillion, and the bear case scenario is around $1.7 trillion.
ARK's core logic is that SpaceX's value comes not just from rocket launches but from Starlink's global satellite internet network, low-cost launch capability, and future space infrastructure businesses.
Based on ARK's projections, the IPO subscription price of $135 still has some upside potential.
🌟 The Bear Case: Independent Firms Believe IPO Valuation is Already Severely Overextended
The bear camp does not deny that SpaceX is one of the world's most unique commercial aerospace assets, nor do they deny Starlink's long-term value.
However, they believe the $1.77 trillion IPO valuation has already priced in too much future growth, especially given the significant uncertainty surrounding the AI business.
Morningstar @MorningstarInc
X Followers: 238K | XHunt Rank: 98209 | Globally renowned independent investment research firm, commonly using fundamental analysis and DCF models to assess company value.
Core View: SpaceX is a good company, but the IPO valuation is clearly on the high side.
Using a DCF model, Morningstar gives SpaceX a fair value estimate of approximately $780 billion, only about 45% of the IPO target valuation of $1.77 trillion.
In Morningstar's breakdown, the valuation for SpaceX's core launch business + Starlink is approximately $611 billion, with the xAI / AI-related business valued at around $170 billion on a probability-weighted basis.
Morningstar also highlights two risks: Musk is a key figure at SpaceX, and the company's valuation carries a significant "Musk premium." After the IPO, selling pressure may arise as lock-up periods expire for early shareholders and employees.
Morningstar believes the $135 price is clearly expensive and not suitable for rushing into the IPO; there may be better buying opportunities post-IPO.
PitchBook @PitchBook
X Followers: 48K | XHunt Rank: 49174 | Global platform for private equity, venture capital, and private company data, covering valuations and financing information for numerous private companies.
Core View: Around $1.5 trillion is acceptable, $1.75 trillion is expensive, but not entirely irrational.
PitchBook uses a Sum-of-the-Parts model to estimate SpaceX's fair value range between $1.1 trillion and $1.7 trillion, primarily focusing on the launch business and Starlink, not entirely reliant on the xAI narrative.
The $135 price is already near or slightly above the upper end of PitchBook's valuation range – not cheap, but not completely outrageous if one takes a long-term view on Starship and Starlink execution.
New Constructs @NewConstructs
X Followers: 5675 | XHunt Rank: - | Independent equity research firm focusing on financial quality, valuation risks, and reverse DCF analysis.
Core View: SpaceX is not worth participating in at a $1.75 trillion valuation; it advises investors to avoid the IPO.
New Constructs rates SpaceX as Unattractive. They argue that the $1.75 trillion valuation implies excessively high future growth and profit requirements. SpaceX would need to simultaneously become one of the highest revenue and profit-generating companies in the U.S. stock market to justify this price.
Risks cited include: inadequate internal accounting controls at SpaceX, public investors having almost no voting rights, a large portion of IPO proceeds potentially used to repay debt, potentially misleading non-GAAP metrics, and related-party transaction risks.
To justify a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX's revenue may need to reach $1.1 trillion by 2035, implying an average annual growth rate of about 50% over the next decade. New Constructs believes such growth rates have almost no historical precedent.
New Constructs' judgment is the most direct: the risk-reward at this price is unfavorable, and they recommend not participating in the IPO.
Trefis @Trefis
X Followers: 2661 | XHunt Rank: - | Independent U.S. stock valuation platform that derives target prices by breaking down business models.
Core View: SpaceX is an exceptionally unique company, but the $135 offering price is clearly overvalued.
Trefis acknowledges SpaceX's long-term advantages in commercial aerospace, Starlink satellite internet, and low-cost launches but argues these advantages do not mean investors should ignore price.
Trefis gives SpaceX a target price of approximately $79 per share, far below the $135 IPO price.
🌟 Final Thoughts
Whether from the bull or bear side, most essentially acknowledge that SpaceX is one of the world's most unique commercial aerospace companies.
The real point of contention is whether the $135 price offers any margin of safety.
📈 Bulls believe buying SpaceX is about the long-term story of Starlink, low-cost launches, AI, and future space infrastructure.
📉 Bears argue that $135 has already priced in expectations to the fullest.
Currently, the $SPCX IPO subscription is already oversubscribed by 4 times, indicating that despite the valuation debate, capital enthusiasm for SpaceX remains high.
🙋 So the question is: Will you participate in the $SPCX IPO? Do you think Musk's $220 billion gain is well-deserved, or will it keep him up at night?
