Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to consolidate at price levels not seen since April of last year, following a 31% decline over the monthly time frame. Trading around $1,606, ETH sits nearly 70% below its all-time high of $4,945 — and according to one indicator, the drawdown may not be over.
Another 56% Drop Ahead?
Market analyst Ali Martinez flagged the Delta Price indicator on X, noting that it has successfully identified the last two market bottoms for Ethereum. Today, that metric sits at $708.
Should ETH reach that level before the bear market runs its course, it would represent an additional 56% decline from current prices and an roughly 85% drop from all-time highs.
Martinez described Delta Price as a metric designed to reflect the relationship between investor cost basis and miner production cost, one that has historically pointed to deep accumulation zones.
Based on that track record, he suggested Ethereum could revisit the $700 range before any sustained recovery takes hold.
Two Levels Ethereum Must Reclaim
In the near term, the analyst had previously identified $1,850 on the weekly chart as a critical level, warning that losing it would likely accelerate selling — a call that has since played out. He had also flagged $1,560 as a downside target, which was reached and broken over the weekend as ETH slid to $1,500.
Further down, Martinez had previously flagged $1,070 as the next significant level. He described it as the lower boundary of a multi-year range, which would be the next target if the current downtrend intensified further.
On the recovery side, he outlined two conditions needed to shift the market back to bullish: a reclaim of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $2,500, followed by a decisive break above the 50-week simple moving average near $3,100.
For now, neither condition is close to being met, as selling pressure continues to weigh on Ethereum and the broader crypto market.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
