Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be the first to face the practical threat of quantum computing when the technology learns to crack complex encryption mechanisms. This was stated by Quantum Xchange CEO Eddy Zervigon in an interview with CoinDesk.
"Cryptocurrencies are a canary in the coal mine," added the entrepreneur.
According to Zervigon, an attack is most likely to begin with blockchain protocols due to their decentralized nature.
Such an episode would signal the emergence of a cryptographically significant quantum computer — a device capable of breaking elliptic curve cryptography, which underlies the signatures in the Bitcoin network and the encryption of banking infrastructure.
Zervigon stated that companies investing billions of dollars in developing quantum systems — Microsoft, IBM, and others — are generally targeting the emergence of a commercially and cryptographically significant quantum system by approximately 2029.
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This timeline is supported by recent hardware estimates. Google researchers have lowered their estimate of the quantum power needed to break Bitcoin. According to their calculations, attacking elliptic curve cryptography would require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits — 20 times lower than previous estimates.
An additional signal comes from the U.S. government. The U.S. Department of Energy plans to create a powerful quantum computer within three years. Concurrently, federal agencies have been mandated to transition to post-quantum cryptography.
"This starts the clock. It creates a sense of urgency," added Zervigon.
The Weak Spot
According to a Deutsche Digital Assets report cited by CoinDesk, Bitcoin's main vulnerability in the context of quantum computers is not weak algorithms but its slow decision-making system. Compared to traditional finance, implementing changes on the blockchain takes a very long time.
The company noted that an investment bank like JPMorgan does not need approval from millions of participants worldwide to update its cryptographic infrastructure. In most cases, a decision by the board of directors or major investors is sufficient for a company.
A public decentralized blockchain will transition to post-quantum standards more slowly and less predictably. Deutsche Digital Assets emphasized that this is not an argument against Bitcoin, but rather an indication of a problem with its governance system.
A 2024 academic paper, "Downtime Required for Bitcoin Quantum-Safety," published on arXiv, confirms this logic. The authors write that before any upgrade can begin, a 90% consensus among miners on specific update parameters must be achieved.
Historically, significant changes to the network have met with strong resistance. A prime example is the SegWit upgrade in 2017: the debate within the community was so profound that the ecosystem saw several versions through hard forks, including Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold.
Recall that Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson allowed for the possibility of digital gold losing its leadership due to the quantum threat.
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