Euphoria, Panic, and Crashes: Navigating 38 Years of Bull and Bear Markets, Volatility is the Inevitable Path to Wealth

marsbitPublicado em 2026-02-07Última atualização em 2026-02-07

Resumo

Facing the recent extreme volatility in crypto markets, a veteran with 38 years of market experience and 13 years in crypto shares his perspective. He has witnessed Bitcoin’s rise from $200 to $75,000 and endured multiple drawdowns of 50% to 80%. Through these cycles, he emphasizes that volatility is the necessary “entry tax” in a secular bull market, and true wealth belongs to those who overcome emotional instincts, accumulate during panic, and hold long-term. He recalls buying BTC at $200 in 2013, only to see it drop 75% shortly after, and later falling 87% in the 2014 bear market. During the 2017 bull run, he experienced multiple sharp corrections. Although he sold during the fork wars and missed further gains, he re-entered during the COVID crash. In 2021, BTC fell 50% from April to July, similar to current sentiment, yet it eventually reached new highs. Key lessons: 1. For secular assets, doing nothing (HODLing) often outperforms timing the market. 2. Aggressively adding during sell-offs, even incrementally, compounds returns significantly over time. He advises asking two questions: Will the world be more digital tomorrow? Will fiat currency be worth less? If yes, continue investing. Time in the market beats timing the market. Manage position size according to personal risk tolerance, and never use leverage—it leads to permanent loss. He stresses the importance of having self-earned conviction (DYOR—Do Your Own Research), not relying on borrowed beliefs. While timi...

Author: Raoul Pal

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Original link:

https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/2019541941663285274

Deep Tide Guide: In the face of recent sharp volatility in the crypto market, a veteran with 38 years of market experience and 13 years deep in the crypto space shares his journey. He has witnessed Bitcoin's spectacular rise from $200 to $75,000, and has also countless dark moments of 50% or even 80% drawdowns in net worth. Through this article, he conveys a core idea to those investors feeling despair and anger: in a long-term Secular Bull Market, volatility is the necessary 'entry tax,' and true wealth often belongs to those 'fools' who can overcome human instinct, firmly accumulate during panic, and hold for the long term.

The market feels brutal right now, seemingly hopeless. It's all over. You missed the opportunity. You screwed up again.

Everyone is full of anger and confusion. Those who foresaw this situation might feel smug, but many can also see how deeply such price movements hurt people. It feels like the worst of times.

I've been in the markets for 38 years now (today's selloff is a nice birthday present, coinciding perfectly with my food poisoning last night!), and I've seen all types of crashes and panics.

They all feel the same: F*cking awful.

I got into crypto in 2013. That's when I first bought BTC at $200.

It rallied a bit after I bought, then fell -75%...... and this happened *during* a bull market, a bull market that ultimately went 10x+ from my entry price. I didn't sell because it was a long-term investment, and I knew the risks well.

Then, in the 2014 bear market, it crashed another -87%.

During the subsequent 2017 bull run, I suffered three sharp sell-offs between -35% and -45%...... brutal. Due to the Bitcoin fork war at the time, I ultimately exited at $2,000 (the previous 2013 high).

My original investment was up 10x by then. However, by the end of that year, it went up another 10x (!!), before embarking on another long, ugly bear market.

I successfully avoided that entire bear market. Felt great.

But I made a costly mistake: trying to do the 'right thing' (buy the dip), I bought back in during the 2020 Covid crash at $6,500—that's 3.5x higher than my sell price.

In 2021, BTC also experienced a -50% drop from April to July, and market sentiment was very similar to now. The atmosphere on Twitter (X) was terrible then. Really bad. But the market wasn't even as oversold then as it is today......

By November 2021, the market was back at all-time highs. SOL was up 13x from the lows, ETH doubled, BTC made new highs, up 150%.

I lived through it all. Every heartbreaking, gut-wrenching moment, all within a major secular bull market.

My first buy was at $200. The price now is $65,000. And I even missed a 3.5x move by trying to time it (and timing it poorly).

Key Lesson 1: (For me) For a secularly rising asset, the best action is inaction. HODL became a meme for a profound reason. It's far more powerful than the so-called '4-year cycle'.

Lesson 2: Aggressively add during sell-offs. Even if I don't nail the exact bottom, increasing the overall position by averaging into weakness over time creates massive compounding effects, even more effective than Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA).

I don't always have enough cash to buy big in every sell-off, but I always buy a little because it helps train your psychology.

At times like this, you always feel like you missed it, that the bull run will never return, that it's all over forever. It's not true.

Ask yourself two questions:

  1. Will tomorrow be more digital than today?
  2. Will fiat currency be worth less in the future than it is today?

If the answer to both is yes, then carry on. BTFD (Buy The F*cking Dip), let 'time in the market' beat 'timing the market' because it always does. Adding during sharp sell-offs lowers your cost basis from the highs, which makes a huge difference.

Stress, fear, and self-doubt are all 'taxes' you should expect to pay on this journey.

Position sizing is crucial to your personal risk tolerance. Don't worry, everyone feels overexposed on the way down and underexposed on the way up. You just need to manage those emotions and find your balance.

Another key thing: Don't 'rent' someone else's conviction. DYOR (Do Your Own Research) is a very important creed. You can't get through these times without it. Earn your conviction yourself. Rented conviction is like leverage; it will blow you up eventually.

Remember—when you are busy blaming others, you are really just blaming yourself.

Yes, it feels dark out there right now. But the sun will rise again soon, and this is just another scar on your journey (as long as you don't use leverage! Leverage causes permanent capital loss because you lose your casino chips). Never lose your chips.

When will this all be over? I don't know, but I think it's more like the April to November 2021 situation—a panic within a bull market. I think it ends soon. If I'm wrong, I won't change my approach; I'll just keep adding when I have cash.

But for you, it might be different. Try to build a 'minimum regret portfolio'. Can you handle another 50% drop from here? If not, then reduce your position, even if it feels stupid to do so now. Having the right mindset is key to survival. My mindset has shifted to 'how can I buy more,' while yours might be the opposite.

There will always be some great market timers who perfectly avoid the sell-off or go short. There will be. But honestly, you just need to tell yourself that this volatility was expected at some point. When you expect volatility, you don't stress when it happens! It becomes part of the story, not the whole story.

I'm starting to buy more digital art (which also adds to my ETH position) and plan to add to my crypto allocation next week, just like I have done every single time an opportunity has presented itself.

I bought during the Covid sell-off, during the 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and will in 2025 sell-offs! I'll do it again this time. Every single time, my P&L makes new highs before the market does. It works like magic. Say it again......BTFD (Buy The F*cking Dip)!

Good luck, everyone. It's never easy.

Volatility is the price we pay for this long-term compounding return asset. Embrace it.

Perguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the core message that the author, a veteran with 38 years of market experience, wants to convey to investors feeling despair and anger during market volatility?

AThe author's core message is that in a long-term secular bull market, volatility is an unavoidable 'entry tax' that must be paid. True wealth belongs to those who can overcome human instinct, remain steadfast during panic, consistently accumulate (DCA or average into weakness), and hold for the long term (HODL).

QAccording to the author, what are the two key lessons he learned from his experience in crypto markets since 2013?

AThe two key lessons are: 1) For a secularly appreciating asset, the best strategy is often inaction - HODLing is more powerful than trying to time the market. 2) Aggressively adding to positions during sell-offs (Averaging into weakness) creates significant compounding effects over time, even more effective than simple Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA).

QWhat two questions does the author suggest investors ask themselves to maintain conviction during a market downturn?

AThe author suggests asking: 1) Will the world be more digital tomorrow than it is today? 2) Will fiat currency be worth less in the future than it is today? If the answer to both is yes, then one should continue forward and buy the dips (BTFD).

QWhat crucial piece of advice does the author give regarding personal conviction and risk management?

AThe author advises: 'Do not rent someone else's conviction.' He emphasizes the importance of DYOR (Do Your Own Research) to build genuine, personal belief, as rented conviction is fragile like leverage and can lead to being 'blown out.' He also stresses the importance of position sizing according to one's risk tolerance to manage emotions.

QHow does the author characterize the role of volatility in the context of long-term investing in assets like cryptocurrency?

AThe author characterizes volatility as the 'price' or 'tax' one must pay for the long-term compound returns offered by such assets. He encourages investors to 'embrace it' as an expected part of the journey and narrative, not the entire story, and to view it as a necessary component of wealth creation.

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